With sugar crisis making headlines all across the country, focus on the power sector blues has somewhat taken a backseat. But that does not mean that the issue stands resolved; it is still as chronic as it was a couple of months ago. Today, we talk about the inequitable distribution of rolling blackouts - commonly referred to as load shedding - and the possible solutions to overcome current energy shortfall.
The current electricity shortfall of 3,000 megawatts leads to heavy load shedding that stretches for 8 to 10 hours a day in certain parts of the country. Considering that roughly 14,500 MW of electricity is being currently generated, there should not be more than four hours of such outages across the country if it is done on equitable basis, even after accounting for exceptions such as hospitals.
Perhaps, the biggest reason of this inequality is that residential districts of federal capital and the financial capital as a whole are unofficially exempted from load shedding, relative to other parts country. Moreover, circular debt of Rs 90 billion coupled with heavy line losses and electricity theft of 30 percent continue to erode IPPs efficiency.
The governments efforts to fill this demand-supply gap through rental power projects seem hugely misguided. Let us take you through a simple example: two machines and a steam turbine consume 70 MMFCD of gas to generate 120 MW of electricity at IPPs running at 40 percent efficiency level. On the contrary, rental plants would use the same amount of gas to generate merely 60 to 70 MW of electricity.
On top this; the government plans to cut a portion of gas allocated for IPPs, according to industry sources, and provide it to less efficient RPPs - increasing the overall inefficiency of the system. The potential generation capability of an extra 3000 MW by the year end also questions the sanity of the decision to set up RPPs, as about 1200 MW of capacity will be operational by year end; while another 1600-2000 MW of capacity lies unutilised, mostly due to political reasons.
But, both the root of the problem and its solution rests in the power mix of the country. Only one-third of our power generation comes from hydel sources, which certainly is not enough, considering that ideal hydel contribution for a country like Pakistan should be around 70 percent.
Although, the government has announced its plans to construct Bhasha dam but it would take another 8-10 years before it becomes operational. Sadly, however, the construction of Kalabagh and Bhasha dam has become very politically sensitive over time; therefore its future hangs in the corridor of uncertainty. If these dams are built, Pakistan can generate enough electricity to enjoy an exportable surplus after meeting its domestic demand.
It would also mean lesser burden on our oil import bill and much needed cheap electricity to the end consumer - as cheap as Rs 2/unit. That is the only way forward, otherwise the nation will always be found arguing about RPPs and IPPs and load shedding menaces.