Wanted: political stability

There is no denying the improvement in key macroeconomic indicators. But the job is not done yet and 2020 has to be the year of market-driven and export-oriented structural reforms. In that context, the last thing the economy needs is further political instability in the just-commenced year. On the face of it, there seems to be no credible threat to the survival of the Khan government, which continues to enjoy institutional support. But look deeper and fissures become visible among different players.

Arguably, the recent political trend-line is far less favorable for the PTI-led government than it was at the onset of 2019. To borrow from one confused minister, a “season of bails” is currently stalking the regime. After all, most of the leading opposition figures have flown the coop. The diehards who are still inside the enclosures are gaining public sympathy. Being one-sided, the fire and fury of the accountability-drive has grown stale. And “media” is also tired of berating old, frail faces for all that ails this land.

It is hard to deny the perception that the opposition’s legal reprieves of late have something to do with a judiciary that is slowly gaining its independence. The two recent verdicts, termed “unprecedented” by both detractors and cheerleaders, seem to have injected some vigor in the legal system. This newfound influence may result in the federal government being increasingly kept in check for its actions, approvals and appointments. This will not sit well with a regime that has had it easy thus far.

And it is harder still to deny the impression that the opposition’s relief and the judiciary’s reckoning are somehow linked to struggles within the powerful quarters. There are wheels within wheels, and to borrow from Roger Waters of Pink Floyd, “who knows which is which and who is who”. But one thing looks certain that the Khan government is caught in crossfire between the two poles of power. The ruling party is at risk of becoming collateral damage if the aftermath of the said verdicts is not handled with care.

To stop matters from getting worse, the Prime Minister has a unique role to play. Khan needs to shift his faux focus from selective accountability that is leading nowhere and causing dismay among the public. Instead, the premier needs to sincerely attempt to unify the country. It can be done, by taking steps towards developing political consensus on matters relating to economic governance and pro-people legislation. The process will be painstaking, and it cannot be rushed. But haste is already apparent.

Absence of maturity will only growth political instability in 2020, hurting a nascent economic recovery, alienating segments of public, and eventually threatening government’s survival. Thus far, the economy has been shielded from short-term political imperatives, thanks to a technocratic team whose efforts have been backstopped by full might of the state. But if the foundation of that very support comes under stress and if political imperatives become louder, can 2020 really stand a chance to level up the reformist push?