Cotton woes: seed not acreage

The ongoing kharif season is only the second time in past five years when acreage under cotton has recorded a positive change over previous year. Irrigation water supply in both Punjab and Sindh also recorded double digit percentage increases between July and October. Yet, if Pakistan Cotton Ginner’s Association (PCGA) is to be believed, first quarter (Aug-Oct) seed cotton arrivals are lower by 21 percent, raising fears that cotton performance may be worst in three decades.

This is set to knock several estimations out of kilter. For one, both the central bank and FinMin’s real GDP growth forecasts are banking on a turnaround of agriculture, where cotton is the second largest value-adding crop after wheat. In fact - given negative forecast for LSM and suspicions raised on credibility of livestock estimates – poor kharif outlook may also put a dent in Services GDP, given its strong linkages with the farming segment.

This misplaced confidence in kharif performance was alluded to in this space three months ago, with warning level upgraded to ‘alarming’ since then. Industry insiders estimate that raw cotton import bill may add another $1.5billion over last year’s number, sapping any hopes of current account turnaround.

Betting season on cotton’s failure shall soon be over with the meeting of Crop Assessment Committee’s later this week. Thus, putting exact number on the ‘loss spread’ is relevant but no longer material. High import bill appears to be a foregone conclusion, although set to be partially offset by dull global commodity demand owing to the trade war between the giants.

The agenda for upcoming CAC’s meeting should instead be one focused on reckoning. If the enabling forces of higher acreage and water aplenty could not restore crop output, it is hard to imagine how cotton may cope in coming years amid increased climatic volatility and higher incidence of freak weather events.

Consensus exists that the white gold’s lost glory is due to step-child treatment, compounded by absence of policy-focus over the last decade. But can the gaps be filled with a return of cotton to centre of policymaking attention? That may be easier said than done.

Background consultation with stakeholders indicate that the secular loss of yield in cotton over last decade is a result of deteriorating seed quality, which has resulted in flooding of non-sanctioned seeds to the market lacking the desired level of vigour to fight against evolving pests and changing climatic patterns. The seed quality available to domestic cotton farmers is so poor that it forced a poultry sector executive to comment that “[Pakistan] should not have any seed production if we cannot guarantee quality.”

That view may be sincere but could prove an insufficient answer to sectoral woes. If the first-generation bt. cotton experience is any guide, high-performing varieties not adapted to soil, weather, and pest conditions unique to local farming may inadvertently fail.

Even more unfortunate is the prospect of second-generation bt. cotton introduction, now the mainstay of global cotton supply. Years of policymaking neglect means that no approval for next generation bt. varieties is in sight. But off the record conversation with insiders reveal that even if the approvals were to be accorded as of yesterday, it will take bio-tech companies at least five years to identify a native suitable variety and then adapt it to local conditions.”

Pakistan’s cotton challenge no longer has easy answers. Neither does it spell doom for the value-adding segment as textile sector in countries such as Bangladesh has thrived in absence of domestic cotton supply.

However, even a revival of cotton crop in distant future requires putting heads together today, so that R&D budget and efforts may be allocated towards development of bespoke varieties suited to changing environmental factors. But that may be placing too much faith in MNFSR’s misplaced priorities, considering the fibre-king of yesteryears was not even made part of the “Agriculture Emergency” agenda. Let’s hope against hope.