Trouble across the pond

It is said that the political winds in the UK and the USA often blow in the same direction. Back in June 2016, several American observers had worried that the Brexit referendum was a warning shot for the Trump election later that year. They were right. Now, almost into 2020, Boris Johnson’s Conservatives have become victorious by the highest margin in three decades, to “get Brexit done”.

The Johnson victory is now being seen by some circles in America as a warning shot for Trump’s re-election in November 2020. The argument goes that just as the Labor Party in the UK has veered towards the left and lost big, so are the Democrats being pulled in the same direction, potentially setting them up for a landslide loss in the presidential and congressional elections next year.

If that came to pass, the Conservatives on both sides of the Atlantic would be cheering for a return to the Reagan-Thatcher “golden” era of the 1980s that was characterized by staunch anti-communism, dismantling of unions, and a championing of the “free enterprise”. The effects of that era are still prevalent in developing countries like Pakistan with a favorable view of privatization, liberalization and deregulation.

The Democrats need to do some soul-searching. Leading lights like Obama are right in suggesting that the Democrats cannot win a majority with pledges of ideological purity. Instead, they need to offer a platform that is appealing to a wider electorate, beyond the liberal base. In any case, Democrats can only enact liberal agenda once they get into the government. And a hard-left turn isn’t going to get them there.

Already, Joe Biden, the leading Democratic candidate, is suggesting that the electoral setback that befell Jeremy Corbyn in UK may also happen to Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren in the US. Expect centrist voices to gain strength, but the liberal base may not be in a mood to compromise yet. The expensive entry of Michael Bloomberg, a dream candidate for independent-minded public, complicates things.

The top cadre of Democratic presidential candidates is an interesting mix of centrists and socialists. Who will come on top? It will be a messy affair, going all the way into spring, before a presumptive nominee is visible. And then the Democratic base will need to firmly coalesce behind that one candidate to take on Trump, who is currently being impeached but may survive the public opinion thanks to a strong economy.