Lahore is choking

If you are residing in Lahore, you may feel lethargic, less productive, and having some kind of itching in eyes and throat. The poor air quality that is doing the damage. According to a research, improving the air quality can increase the life expectancy of Lahoris by 5 years.

When the air quality started deteriorating significantly in 2016, not many knew about it. In 2017, environmental activists took the charge and people started noticing it. At that time, PMLN government said that the issue will be picked after 2018 election. When PTI government came to power, with virtually no governance system in Punjab – 2018 is lost. Now in 2019, the government is taking keen interest in the issue.

The common perception is that so called smog is a problem of winters (Oct-Jan), but unhealthy air quality is a round the clock issue in Lahore. There is a standard Air Quality index (AQI) that measures five criteria air pollutants – particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and ozone. The good air quality has a value of less than 50, anything above the quality deteriorates (51-100 moderate, 101-150 unhealthy for sensitive groups); over 150 is considered unhealthy for everyone and hazardous at 300 or above.

During 2018, the levels were over 150 or a little less in Lahore throughout the year. This implies that even on a nice sunny day in summer, the air quality was unhealthy. That is scary and its having a toll on Lahore’s future generations, as children are more sensitive to the poor air quality.

The most critical part within AQI is PM2.5 – it is the concentration of microscopic particles of less than 2.5 microns in diameter in the air. PM2.5 is usually found in motor vehicle and other engine exhausts. These particulates can be very dangerous as human can take them in, and can do irreparable damage.  According to provincial ambient air standards, the hourly and 24-hour averages for PM2.5 concentrations should not be more than 15 and 35 micrograms per cubic meter, respectively.

Data collected by the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative reveal the hourly average PM2.5 concentrations in Lahore during 2018 remained above the ambient air standard of 15 throughout the year and during January, October, November and December, it was more than 10 times the legal limit. Chances of cancer increase if you are breathing in Lahore. Other four air pollutants are also bad and some of them can have traces of lead and other cariogenic substances, which are cancerous.

At the time of writing, AQI in Lahore is 160 and PM2.5 is 90, and people are sipping coffee outside to enjoy the weather. The inhabitants of Lahore only wear masks and try remain inside when the AQI is over 300. Anything less than hazardous is not taken seriously. And you are not much better off inside as it is the same air circulating in closed-door rooms. Some are using air purifiers, but there is a limit to these purifiers, and not everyone can afford these.

Improving air quality should be the top priority for Lahore, which otherwise is known as city of four seasons. People say that smog is the fifth season. That is incorrect. Poor air quality is affecting all the four seasons. The question is how to improve the air quality. For that we need to have more scientific analysis of changing air quality during a day and over a period of time. There are a very few monitors to gauge real time air quality in Lahore, and to have better understanding of the matter, there need to be many more monitors. Experts should look at the dynamics to identify the reasons and based on analysis, come up with a strategy to improve the air.

The common perception is that the crop burring is creating smog. That is correct to an extent, but the main issue is fuel emission – both by motor vehicles and power plants. Apart from that, steel and other industry, and brick kilns are also doing the damage. Having said that, crop burning in both Indian and Pakistan sides of Punjab exacerbate the air quality. The presence of suspended particulates and smoke are evidently higher amid poor visibility at the time of crop burning, and satellite imageries show how smoke travels with wind movements. There are also a few coal based power plants commissioned on both sides of Punjab in past few years which add to pollution in the air. That raises the need to have transboundary pact on air pollution.

According to United Nation and World Bank data, 36 percent of pollution in Lahore is contributed by transportation, 19 percent by coal, 15 percent by biomass and 30 percent by others. Lowering pollution relating to transportation and power generation will take time and requires fiscal resources, but resolving issues related to crop burning, brick kiln and steel industry, can marginally improve the air quality in worse season without incurring much cost.

There should be some mechanism to avoid crop burning. The cost of taking off the residue is higher for farmer that is why he prefers to burn. Government should give subsidy or facilitate service of harvester pooling. In case of brick kilns, there are around 250-300 units in Lahore and about 10 thousand units in whole Punjab. Experts say that using zigzag technology can reduce the emission substantially and it requires an investment of Rs2-3 million per unit. A few hundred units are using this technology; the government needs to support them or compel them to convert. Closing kilns during Oct-Jan amid no crop burning can take the city out of the hazardous range.

The elephant in the room is fuel emission through transportation and power generation of furnace oil and coal. Within transportation, around 60 percent of city vehicles are motorbikes, while these contribute to 25 percent of pollution. On the flipside, buses, tractors and trucks are 10 percent in number, but are contributing 40 percent of transportation pollution. In DHA Lahore, tractors are used to water green belts. Know something more ironic?

What about motor cars, and what about the quality of fuel they are using? There is deemed duty charged by local refineries since 2002 to incur the capital expenditure for upgradation and expansion to produce better grade petroleum product, but no significant progress was ever made. And it will take a few years, if the refineries commit this to do today.

The other idea floating is to use electric buses in Lahore for public transportation. This is good as it may reduce the carbon footprint within the city. That said, the electricity is coming from fossil fuel based power plants. Someone needs to do math on the net efficiency levels of electric buses versus normal buses by tracing the carbon foot prints, and on the cost of disposing lithium batteries.

Interestingly, anecdotal evidence suggests that air quality is worse at the time of school pick and drop. There is no effective school bus system in Lahore. Carpooling or proposing schools to come up with school bus systems could be a choice. Schools may be reluctant to incur capital expenditure – some public private partnership model should come into play or involve technological companies like Uber to offer an efficient solution.

It is a long journey, and the plan should be to improve air quality to under 100, in the next five years. Government, private sector and other stakeholders will have to play their parts to make it a livable environment. Money won’t buy you clean air.