THE RUPEE: dollar surges

The rupee gave up firmness against the dollar on the money market during the week, ended on February 09, 2019. The rupee lost about 15 paisas against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.35 and Rs 138.40.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: PEN MARKET RATES: In sympathy with the inter-bank market trend, the rupee also came under pressure in the open market, falling 20 paisas for buying Rs 138.20 and it also shed 30 paisas for selling at Rs 138.70. While, the rupee was trading versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.00 and Rs 157.80.
Marketmen said that the during the last sessions of the week, the dollar has started riding over the rupee's weakness on the local money market. Commenting on rupee's performance against the dollar, some experts said that the short supply phenomenon of the greenback persisted throughout the current week, which helped it to look ahead.
They said that if the dollar breached an important mark of Rs 139 in the inter-bank market next week, it means, the US currency will start showing it's muscles versus the rupee, they said and adding that present developments on the economic front giving an impression that national currency may not be able to keep present levels against the greenback, but it's difficult to predict about new destination of the domestic currency, maketmen said.
Additionally, according to reports, Prime Minister Imran Khan will meet International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde in Dubai on Sunday for talks on issues which have held up bailout negotiations. Besides, Pakistan revised it's economic growth estimate to 5.2 percent from a previously reported figure of 5.8 percent, after a sharp cut in the figure for large-scale manufacturing, the statistics office said.
The revision of figures reported by the previous government underlines the economic headwinds facing Pakistan which is holding discussions over a possible bailout from the IMF.
INTER-BANK MARKET RATES: On Monday, the rupee showed slight changes in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.23 and Rs 138.26. On Tuesday, the commercial institutions including banks were closed due to Kashmir Day holiday. On Wednesday, the rupee did not show major change in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.22 and Rs 138.25. On Thursday, the rupee was almost unchanged in relation to the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.22 and Rs 138.24. On Friday, the rupee 13 paisas in relation to the dollar for buying at Rs 138.35 and it also shed 15 paisas for selling at Rs 138.40.
OPEN MARKET RATES: On Feb 4, the rupee stayed against the dollar for buying at Rs 138.00, while the national currency gained 10 paisas for selling and Rs 138.40. The rupee picked up same amount in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 157.40 and Rs 158.90. On Tuesday, banks were closed for a local holiday.
On Feb 6, the rupee gained 20 paisas against the dollar for buying at Rs 137.80 and 10 paisas for selling and Rs 138.30, they said. The rupee picked up 90 paisas in relation to the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.50 and Rs 158.30, they said. On Feb 7, the rupee managed to hold overnight levels against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 137.80 and Rs 138.30, they said. The rupee picked up 90 paisas versus the euro for buying at Rs 155.60 while it posted fresh gain of 60 paisas for selling and Rs 157.40, they said. On Feb 8, in sympathy with the inter-bank market trend, the rupee also gave up steadier trend, losing 20 paisas against the dollar for buying and selling at Rs 138.00 and Rs 138.50. The rupee also lost about 40 paisas versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.00 and Rs 157.80.
On Feb 9, the rupee continued overnight weakness against the dollar, losing 20 paisas for buying and selling at Rs 138.20 and Rs 138.70. While, the rupee the rupee did not move any side versus the euro for buying and selling at Rs 156.00 and Rs 157.80.
OVERSEAS OUTLOOK FOR DOLLAR: In the first Asian trade, with much of Asia closed by holidays this week, the dollar also took heart from recently concluded trade talks between China and the United States - it was set for its biggest two-day gain against the yuan in a year.
In the second Asian trade, the dollar held on to recent gains against its peers on Tuesday, supported by a recovery in investor risk appetite, which gave an overnight boost to US yields, while the Australian dollar dipped on dismal retail sales data.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six key rivals, was barely changed at 95.824 after gaining for three straight sessions.
In the third Asian trade, the dollar held steady against its peers on Wednesday, showing little reaction to US President Donald Trump's State of the Union address which touched upon trade and budget issues but provided investors with few surprises.
The dollar was trading against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.523. Other Asian markets were closed due to local festivals. In the fourth European trade, the euro fell to a two-week low on Thursday after the European Commission sharply cut its forecasts for economic growth in the euro zone.
Global trade tensions and growing public debt are hastening a slowdown in the largest countries of the bloc, complicating the European Central Bank's plans for an interest rate hike this year and weakening the single currency.
The euro has lost around 1.3 percent over the last week as investors bet the ECB will keep monetary policy accommodative faced by low inflation in the single currency area.
The dollar index, a gauge of its value versus six major peers was up 0.2 percent at 96.52, hovering close to its two-week high. The index has gained for three consecutive sessions. Elsewhere, sterling was marginally lower at $1.2914. The British pound has weakened by 1.3 percent in February due to Brexit woes.
In the final trade, the dollar held near a two-week high on Friday, as investors rushed to the safety of the greenback following a setback in US-China trade negotiations and broader worries about slowing global growth.
The index has gained for six straight sessions in a row. This was mainly due to a weaker euro, which has around 58 percent weightage in the index, and came despite the Federal Reserve's dovish shift on interest rates last week.
The euro was marginally lower at $1.1338, on track to post its fifth straight day of losses. The single currency has been stumbling due to weaker-than-expected growth data out of the eurozone and expectations that the European Central Bank will keep monetary policy accommodative this year.
The dollar was available against the Indian rupee at Rs 71.290 and the greenback was at 4.069 versus the Malaysian ringgit. At the weekend, the dollar edged higher against a basket of currencies on Friday, ending its strongest week in six months, as traders piled into the greenback in a safe-haven move on worries about a weakening global economy. The euro hovered at a two-week low with support at $1.13. An index that tracks the greenback versus the euro, yen, sterling and three other currencies was up 0.13 percent at 96.634. With Chinese markets closed for Lunar New Year this week, market volatility declined.