For every great idea promising revolution, there is a realist prepared to break it down, one logical counterargument after another. Uber MENA management believes that in the time it will introduce driverless cars across the world, it can also launch flying cars in Pakistan. In fact, Pakistan may be one of its primary markets for flying cars. That is a headline grabbing news, right? Ambitious sounding, even if downright silly. Not to underestimate the potential of this diverse and growing population of 200 million people; or be a cynic, it is highly improbable that Pakistan will be a forerunner for flying cars. So what leads Uber to attach this colossal optimism to this market, and why is that unreasonable?
It is no secret that ride sharing technology currently operating around the world is not profitable yet. Uber has had to pull out of a number of markets in South East Asia while competition remains tough across the board as the technology picks up steam and more startups enter the space. Rumours of Careem being sold to Uber are still fresh in the grapevine. Many leading players like Uber, Lyft and Zipcar are expanding the ride sharing model and in many instances want to join, replace or be a better alternative to public transport. In Egypt, Careem plans to roll out a bus service which it intends to launch in at least 10 more countries. In fact, among his many ambitious, Uber’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi has said he wants to run the bus systems for cities.
Becoming the ultimate face of transportation and mobility has been every global car company’s dream and Uber epitomizes that with its own vision of taking ride sharing to the skies. Its brainchild, Uber Elevate will move passengers in vehicles designed for Vertical Take-Off and Land (VTOL). The company’s test projects will be launched in Los Angeles and Dallas and it is working with vehicle manufacturing partners to arrive at the right model for Elevate. The company has garnered support from NASA through a Space Act Agreement to create an air traffic control system that would manage these flying vehicles, most likely electric and driverless.
It’s not a pipe dream either. As many as 20 major companies are developing ideas for flying vehicles. But the infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are simply not being developed as fast. In fact, flying cars are going to be a regulatory nightmare for even some of the most developed countries. After all, countries are still figuring out how to efficiently regulate the on-demand economy or drone technology.
Aerial transportation for commuters would involve the infrastructure that would facilitate seamless take-off and landing, communication with existing infrastructure, air traffic control, safety and security among other areas. Weather and environment monitoring as well as managing while creating a scalable electric grid for these aerial taxis will be another challenge. Uber will have to partner with governments, its strong institutions and real estate partners committed to work together.
But how Pakistan? Pakistan hasn’t even been able to create a convincing physical infrastructure for road transportation and mass transit—how will it communicate with the infrastructure for aerial transportation? There aren’t any remarkably successful examples of rapid bus or rail transits in the country and such projects where they have been launched at massive costs are a drain to public finances and still remain inadequate means to support the country’s sprawling cities. The government is paying nearly Rs8 billion on these projects via subsidies to run them. The PTI government is now running an audit on many of these projects under plan.
Governance is in disarray marred by weak institutions and regulatory bodies. Cities have crumbled under the pressure of ballooning population, urbanization and increased human activity. Buildings are dilapidated, roads are broken, half the population lives in slums, land is scarce and inefficiently distributed to low-density occupation, the country is becoming water-starved while streets and alleys are marked with waste and garbage. But perhaps, after scourging and pillaging land, it is time to give air a chance?
Uber’s management argued that Pakistan has been very receptive to ride sharing apps. True, it is a huge market waiting to be tapped. But Uber and even Careem should know there will only be a very small share of the market that they will be able to cater to, given the cost of the service. Even though these services have tried to integrate into the existing transportation system by introducing options such as bike and rickshaw, the combined services are not affordable for the daily commuter- the average middle or lower-middle class guy that owns his own bike or travels via the bus in Rs20. Ride sharing apps despite finding quick market access in the beginning will find it ever more difficult to expand in the coming future.
The most Uber and Careem can reduce or substitute car ownership and put unutilized vehicles to use which would help in the congestion on roads. Their contribution to a greater use of electric and hybrid cars and eliminating expensive and environmentally unfriendly combustion engines is another achievable goal for the country over the next decade if infrastructure of the technology takes off. But flying cars is a huge undertaking and even if Uber can put in the desired investment, Pakistan is neither ready to be a launching pad for flying cars, nor can shoulder the burden of it. Let’s first learn how to embrace gravity.
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