The water levels have dropped in the reservoirs, sending some parts of the country into another round of power load shedding. Pakistan was supposed to have it covered having added all those 11000 additional MW in the grid. After all, Pakistan’s dependable capacity by June end 2018 had gone up to 30342 MW, up from 24345 MW a year earlier. But don’t fall for the name – as dependable capacity does not promise actual generation.
That said, Pakistan’s power generation in FY18 stood 13 percent higher year-on-year at 117637 GwH. More importantly, Pakistan’s power generation mix has also improved significantly from a year ago, especially with reduced share of FO based power generation from 30 percent in FY17 to 19 percent in FY18.
But, the energy mix is far from dependable now, despite being better spread than ever before. The reliance on FO still remains, especially when the demand peaks or when hydel availability goes down. Having announced zero generation from FO earlier this year, to an average 15 percent share in total generation for 2HFY18, the journey has been far from smooth.
Every time, the water availability gets checked, the onus falls on FO based plants.
Hearting to see the share of coal and LNG based generation increasing gradually, which now has a combined 27 percent share, versus 7 percent in FY17. This has also allowed better and more efficient deployment of natural gas for industrial usage. Timely completion of indigenous coal based and renewable power plants is imperative for Pakistan to have a more dependable base load, which can run smoothly even in times of reduced water supply, without having to go back to FO based costlier and inefficient generation.
It is time Pakistan starts working on the energy affordability side of the equation, without which the lost grounds on international competence will only grow bigger. Strict enforcement of merit order based generation will now have to come in practice. Pakistan’s average fuel cost of power generation increased by 11 percent year-on-year in FY18, despite reduced contribution from FO.
Surely, the average costs will come down once the RNLG plants come to full steam and renewables start pumping more – as many more megawatts are slated to come online in the next few months. The lesson from the past tells that complacency must be avoided at all times, even if the load shedding comes to a near halt. The progress on all fronts has to be simultaneous, now that the base load is going towards being more dependable. The next and immediate step requires strengthening of the transmission and distribution networks, along with revamping the Disco’s working model.
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