The following is the working paper for meeting of the Annual Plan Coordination Committee (APCC) 2015
PART-I: (Review of Annual Plan 2014-15 and proposed Annual Plan 2015-16)
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS
Overview: The Annual Plan for 2014-15 envisaged real GDP growth of 5.1 percent based upon sectoral growth projections for agriculture, industry, and services sectors at 3.3 percent, 6.8 percent, and 5.2 percent, respectively. The assumptions underlying the growth target included implementation of proposed reforms envisaged in the budget, enhanced fiscal prudence, financial discipline, improved energy availability, resolution of inter-corporate circular debt and improvement in enabling environment for investment.
The start of current year was not encouraging. The province of Punjab was hit by the floods, which damaged infrastructure and Kharif crops in the province. Political standoff and serious security situation shattered investor's confidence. Trade deficit widened and foreign exchange reserves depleted quickly leading to severe exchange rate volatility. Due to energy constraints manufacturing sector's deceleration also continued.
Despite these initial odds, there was a spate of good news towards the end of 2014. The fourth and fifth reviews were completed and the IMF Board approved the release of the pending installments of $1.1 billion. Pakistan was able to float successfully in the international capital market $1 billion worth of Ijara Sukuk Bonds, albeit at a somewhat high cost. Exchange ate stabilized and Pakistan was able to rebuild its forex reserves. Due to falling international prices, rate of inflation came down sharply to 2.1 percent by April 2015. International economic agencies and donors have appreciated the revival of Pakistan economy and have given positive rating for the financial and economic stability.
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE DURING 2014-15 For the fiscal year 2014-15, the Annual Plan growth target for the real GDP was set at 5.1 percent with sectoral growth of 3.3 percent, 6.8 percent and 5.2 percent from agriculture, industry and services, respectively. The GDP growth target was consistent with assumptions of slight improvement in energy supplies, normal weather conditions, fiscal adjustment and better investment prospects.
Agriculture showed mixed patterns in growth of its components as its overall growth marginally improved to 2.9 percent from 2.7 percent last year. The crop sector remained under stress as initially Kharif crops were hit by floods in Punjab and afterwards. Wheat productivity was affected due to prolonged winter, late rains and hailing. Sugarcane area under cultivation reduced due to the low price received by the grower in the last season. This is also reflected in 7.1% reduction in sugarcane output. Rice and Cotton crops showed impressive performance and grew by 3.1 and 9.5% respectively (see table 1). Although three out of five important crops registered negative growth, but livestock sub-sector posted 4.1 percent growth - highest growth in the last decade. Area and production of important crops is given below in Table I.
TABLE I: PERFORMANCE OF IMPORTANT CROPS The, performance of other crops comprising minor crops like onion, potato, tomato, fruits etc. during 2013-14 remained below par as it recorded negative growth of 5.4 percent. Keeping in view the cyclical nature of the crop sector, it was expected that 'Other Crops' will post a healthy growth but it could manage the modest growth of 1.1 percent. Overall, agriculture sector grew by 2.9 percent which is lower than the envisaged target growth of 3.3 percent but higher than the growth of 2.7 percent achieved during the last year [Annex-I]. The structural problems and composition of the agriculture sector is constraining growth of the sector at around or below 4 percent even when crop production is considered good.
Manufacturing sector growth suffered from power outages and low domestic demand for the last few years. Manufacturing sector registered a growth of 3.2% against 4.5% growth last year. Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) posted a growth of 2.5 percent in July-March 2014-15 as against 4 percent in the same period last year. Important contributors to this modest growth are Iron & Steel Products, Leather products, Electronics, Automobiles and Pharmaceuticals. While the growth of 'Food, Beverages & Tobacco', Wood Products, Paper & Board and Engineering Products remained in the negative zone. However, small and medium manufacturing sub-sector grew at a constant annual rate of 8.2%.
Services Sector has registered a growth rate of 5.0% against the target of 5.2% for FY15. Major contributors to this growth are 9.4% growth in government services (due to increased expenditures on Zerb-e-Azb and increase of salaries), 6.2% growth in finance & insurance and 4.2% growth in transport, storage and communication. Better performance of finance & insurance sector is contributed by Non-Scheduled banks with 25.9% growth in GVA and by Scheduled banks with 6.1% growth) The growth of wholesale and retail trade sub-sector is mainly aligned to the performance of agriculture and industrial sector growth which were both subdued during 2014-15, so WRT sub-sector couldn't meet the target of 6.1 % and managed to grow by 3.4%.
Savings and investment: The investment to GDP ratio has declined substantially during the last five years from 19.2 percent in 2007-08 to 15 percent in 2014-15. Both domestic and foreign direct investment (FDI) contributed to this downslide. The fiscal dominance over financing needs crowded out private sector investment. Other contributing factors include peculiar security environment and structural rigidities surrounding governance and regulatory environment. The downward sliding investment has detrimental effects on future productive capacity of the economy and growth prospects. Total investment has stagnated around 15 percent of GDP over the period of last four years and 2014-15 was also not much different with 15.1% investment to GDP ratio. Public sector investment has inched up to 3.9 percent of GDP from 3.4 percent last year, while private sector investment declined from 10 percent of GDP in 2013-14 to 9.7 percent in 2014-l5. Recently, the private sector has shown some appetite for working capital but long spells of power outages, deteriorating law & order situation and other regulatory bottlenecks kept them away from investment.
National Savings have improved to 14.5 percent of GDP from 13.7 percent in 2013-14. Pakistan's reliance on foreign savings has decreased as marginal increase in investment is somehow compensated with increase in national savings. The SBP decision to ease monetary policy has not significantly impacted the investment climate suggesting that the problem lies with other determinants of investment.
Fiscal Developments: Government during 2014-15 planned to contain thy fiscal deficit through enhancing revenues and controlling current expenditure. Fiscal adjustment was envisaged from 5.5 percent of GDP in 2013-14 to 4.9% of GDP in the current year. The consolidated total revenue during July-March 2014-15 stood at Rs 2,683 billion as compared to Rs 2,417 billion in the same period of last year, thereby posting 8.3% growth. This constitutes 63.6% of the revenue of Rs 4,218 billion budgeted for 2014-15. The growth in consolidated total revenue has been realized on account of 12.8% growth in FBR taxes, while federal non tax revenues declined by 10.5% mainly due to reduction in mark-up of PSEs & others, reduction in discount retained on crude oil price, passport fee, windfall levy against crude oil, and other non-tax heads.
The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has collected Rs. 1969 billion during July-April 2014-15 - which is 73.2% of the revised target for the year and is 12.8% higher than the FBR tax collections during the corresponding period of the last year. Both direct and indirect taxes registered growths of 17.2% and 10.2% respectively over the corresponding period of last year. Sales tax, federal excise duty, and customs duty also grew by 6%, 15.0%, and 25.1% respectively (Table-2). Despite a downward revision of annual target from Rs. 2810 billion to Rs. 2691 billion, the FBR would still find it difficult to meet the revised target by the end of the year. This slower growth in the FBR tax: collection may be attributed to substantial decrease in prices of petroleum products, record dip in inflation and lower growth in manufacturing sector. Tax collection is lagging behind the target despite a number of administrative and policy reforms initiated by the FBR.
Monetary Developments: The State Bank of Pakistan continued with a tight monetary policy for the first quarter of 2014-15 and kept policy rate at 10%. It embarked on monetary policy easing in November 2014 whereby the policy rate was gradually reduced to 8% by March 2015. This reduction is expected to increase export competitiveness by reducing the cost of financing for the exporters. Similarly, with IMF program on track coupled with high possibility of getting planned proceeds from privatization inflow, the net SBP reserves are also projected to increase.
Money supply (M2) in the economy during 1st July 2014 to 8th May, 2015 increased by Rs.730.5 billion (7.3% as opposed to an expansion of Rs.724.3 billion (7.1%). Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking system showed an increase of 36.6% and stood at Rs 220.1 billion as against Rs 243.7 billion in July-May 2014-15. Similarly, Net Domestic Assets (NDA) of the banking system showed slight increase in growth (5.5%, Rs. 510.5 billion) compared to growth of 4.4% (Rs 380.6 billion) in corresponding period of last year. Net government borrowing increased by Rs 579.7 billion in July-May 2014-15 which was substantially higher than the increase of Rs 175.1 billion in July-May 2013-14. Details of Monetary Aggregates for the period under review are given in Table-3.
Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for 2013-14 was targeted at 8% but inflation increased by 4.8% during July-April 2014-15 as against an increase of 8.7% in the comparable period of last year. This low pace of inflation was predominantly attributed to deceleration in global oil and commodity prices. Moreover, the prudent monetary stance of State Bank also played its role in control of inflation. Simultaneously, stable Rupee-Dollar parity coupled with low oil prices led to reduced cost of imports. This kept imported inflation in check that eventually resulted in reduced domestic inflationary pressure. Both food and non food inflation remained subdued during July-April 2014-15. Core inflation stood at 6.9% in the first ten months compared to 8.2% last year. In view of the current developments, the CPI inflation in the coming months would continue to witness deceleration. Average inflation for the year 2014-15 is likely to be within the range of 4.5-4.8 percent. Details of changes in various price indices are given below:
Balance of Payments: The Annual Plan 2014-15 envisaged export growth of 5.8% and imports growth of 6.2% with the underlying assumptions of global recovery, better fiscal management, improved energy availability, better business environment and improved competitiveness. The overvalued exchange rate with liquidity constraints eroded the competitiveness of exporters have resulted in negative growth in exports (-3.2%) and imports (-1.5%). With estimated trade deficit at $13.8 billion and remittances at $14.97 billion, the current account deficit for July-April 2014-15 is estimated at $1.4 billion against a deficit of $2.9 billion in July-April 2013-14.
Trade deficit' during the first ten months of this fiscal year deteriorated by $476 million as imports growth outpaced exports growth. Exports stood at $20.2 billion in July-April 2014-15, which is 3.2% less than last year's level. Imports also remained $528 million lesser than the last year's level of $34.6 billion. However, the exports of services have increased by 19.5 percent.
Workers' remittances have continuously witnessed an increasing trend after a brief interval in the last year when it seemed that a saturation point had been reached. Average growth in remittances over the period of last six years was 19%, while remittances reached $15 billion during July-April 2014-15 as against $12.9 billion in the corresponding period of last year, thereby showing an increase of 16.1%. Remittances from UAE (34.1%), Saudi Arabia (19.9%), and GCC countries (14.7%) registered phenomenal growth, while remittances from EU countries have shown sharp decline of 15.9% during first ten months of current fiscal year.
OUTLOOK FOR 2015-16 The outlook for 2015-16 portend a significant recovery in growth momentum and trajectory amidst wide ranging challenges including persistent energy shortages, supply-side constraints, inefficiencies of production, further reduction in fiscal deficit by mobilizing additional revenues and demand for structural reforms besides security challenge. Similarly, regaining macroeconomic stability and adequate investment are critical for improved growth prospects and enhancing job creating ability of the economy. The constraining factors such as lack of structural reforms, high fiscal deficit, and accommodative monetary policies are no more desirable as they have serious consequences for inflation, balance of payments and foreign exchange reserves. In order to tackle these hurdles and place the economy on the right path, Annual Plan 2015-16 aims at higher growth rate and sectoral targets taking into consideration assumptions of better energy supplies, normal weather conditions, investor's positive sentiment about Pakistan economy's prospects and political stability.
The stage is set for economic revival in the next fiscal year. The industrial and services sectors will steer the economy to higher growth trajectory whereas the agriculture sector will continue its modest growth in the short-run, unless major changes in cultivation techniques occur to pave the way for bridging the yield gap between conventional and progressive farmer. Better fiscal discipline, sustainable balance of payments, stable exchange rate, rising availability of credit to the private sector, revival of investor and consumer confidence, improved energy availability, better governance and meaningful monitoring of economic activity will help in boosting economic growth in 2015-16.
Pakistan needs to mobilize substantial resources to enhance its long-term growth potential. Tax-to-GDP ratio at 9.7% is lowest in the region, private investment has fallen by nearly half between 2006-07 and 2012-13 from 15.4% to 8.7% contributed by sharp drops in both foreign and domestic investment, and exports fell from 12.5% of GDP in 2007-08 to 8.8% in 2014-15. Tax, Investment and Export (TIE) are crucial for enhancing growth potential and steps to enhance these are priority areas in the medium and long term strategies.
The growth of GDP for 2014-15 is targeted at 5.5% with contributions from agriculture (3.9%), industry (6.4%) and services (5.7%). Nominal GOP is targeted to grow by 11.8% and GNP per capita is projected at Rs.167,915 [Annex-II]. The growth targets are subject to risks like deterioration in energy availability, extreme weather fluctuations, non-implementation of envisaged reform program and fiscal profligacy. The underlying assumption for inflation is 6% which is consistent with fiscal prudence, stable exchange rate and responsive monetary policy. The sectoral detail of targets is given in the following paragraphs. The circular debt was cleared temporarily without addressing structural issues in June 2013 which had seine positive implications for the economy in the short-run. However, it needs to be resolved permanently, so that it does not impede the growth momentum.
Agriculture Sector: Agriculture sector not only has significant contribution towards GOP growth, it also provides employment to more than 42% of the labour force. The most important policy effort/reform to make the agriculture sector efficient - profitable for the farmers, competitive for the consumer and responsive to the changing demand pattern - has to be in the area of agriculture research and marketing. Pakistan lags far behind its regional comparators in terms of yield in many important crops. Vision 2025 has reiterated the importance of bridging these yield gaps and envisaged reduction of 40% of yield gap by the year 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated that Pakistan cannot achieve its overall GDP growth target of 7-8 %, unless its agriculture sector grows at least by 4%.
In Annual Plan 2015-16, the agriculture sector is targeted to grow by 3.9 percent on the basis of expected contributions of important crops (3.2%), other crops (4.5%), cotton ginned (5%), livestock (4.1%), fishing (3.0%) and forestry (4.0%) [Annex-I]. Pakistan's performance in the livestock sector has been relatively better over the past decade, yet there is a huge potential for growth both in dairy development and meat production. Value addition in livestock products can enable Pakistan to tap the huge potential of Halal food exports. In a nutshell, due to water availability and revival of minor crops and increased productivity of livestock, agriculture sector is well placed to achieve the envisaged growth of 3.9% in 2015-16.
Industrial Sector: Performance of the industrial sector has not been impressive during the current fiscal year as it missed the target of 6.6%. However, it is expected that the industrial sector will grow by 6.4% during FY 2016 on the back of better energy supply and planned investment under CPEC. The mining and quarrying sector is projected to grow by 6.0%. Besides, the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 6.1% for 2015-2016 with growth rate of LSM 6.0%, small & household manufacturing 8.2%, construction by 8.5% and electricity generation & gas distribution by 6.0%.
Better energy supply is expected with the import of LNG. Likewise, some energy-related fast-track projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are expected to be completed in the next fiscal year. Hence, it is assumed that improved energy availability will play significant role in the industrial growth during FY 2016. LSM growth will also benefit from the backward and forward linkages of huge infrastructure projects under CPEC and increasing demand for housing. It will result in a sharp increase in demand for cement and iron. Moreover, the record high remittances will also help maintain a high demand for durable items. Besides, private sector investment is expected to rise with the enhanced energy availability, improving security situation and economy's stabilized international standing.
Services Sector: The services sector is targeted to grow by 5.7 percent with contribution of transport, storage and communication of 6.1%, wholesale and retail trade of 5.5% and finance and insurance of 6.5%. The revival in the commodity producing sector will support growth in services sector via recovery of transport and finance sub sectors especially after the better wheat and sugarcane crops and revival of the LSM. Although, services sector is performing well over the last few years, yet there is a great unharnessed potential for growth in this sector.
Savings and Investment: The investment is targeted to improve from current level of 15.1% of GDP to 17.7%. The increase in investment will be primarily contributed by the private sector while public sector will continue to support the private sector. Fixed investment will inch up from 13.5% to 16.1% of GDP. Foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow has decreased substantially from $5.4 billion in 2007-08 to just $826 million in July-April 2014-15, which is 8% lower than the meager $898 million in the corresponding period of last year. The peculiar security environment and power sector bottlenecks were impeding factors. With gradual improvement in the security environment and power sector, the FDJ will improve significantly. The entrepreneurship and innovation are important interventions of Vision 2025 and they are likely to boost private investment in the country. Inadequacy of national savings to finance investment has always led to increased dependence on foreign savings. However, national savings are expected to improve from 14.5% of GDP in 2014-15 to 16.8% in 2015-16.
Fiscal Policy: Fiscal policy during 2015-16 will build upon the gains of the current fiscal year and will focus on catalyzing economic growth and ensuringo fiscal prudence, curtailing the fiscal deficit by mobilizing more revenues, controlling current spending through switching to more targeted subsidies and prioritizing development spending for critical sectors for realizing stated objective. Growth prospects are dampened by the presence of loss-making public sector enterprises (PSE) in key economic activities as they are drain on the budget and creating distortions in the economy. The on-going restructuring of the Public Sector Enterprises (PSEs) and envisaged outright or partial privatization of some PSEs will save substantial amounts in spending on account of unplanned bailouts to these entities.
Monetary Policy: The strategy of monetary policy during 2015-16 will focus on price stability and provide support to economic growth by improving implementation of monetary policy and the operational framework. Monetary expansion for the year 2015-16 will be in line with the projected GDP growth of 5.5% and CPI inflation at 6% to keep M2 growth in the vicinity of the targeted level and to encourage private sector credit. This will also help in keeping price stability and strengthening the growth prospects of the economy.
Inflation: Inflation has come down to 4.8% during July-April 2014-15 from 8.7% in the same period of last year. Inflation in 2014-15 is likely to be around 4.5-4.8%. In view of the rationalization of subsidies, reversal of global prices trend and rising demand, inflation for 2015-16 is projected at 6%.
Balance of Payment: The outlook for 2015-16 regarding trade balance is encouraging due to the optimism prevailing on account of better availability of energy supply due to completion of various projects, coupled with targets set in Strategic Trade Policy Framework 2012-15. Moreover, it is expected that a competitive exchange rate will improve competitiveness of export sector. Hence, a sustainable and growth supportive balance of payments is envisaged.
Trade Account: Exports for 2015-16 are projected to grow by 5.5% to $25.5 billion from $24.2 billion estimated for 2014-15. Imports during 2015-16 are projected to increase by 6% to $43.3 billion from $40.8 billion estimated for 2014-15. Hence, the trade balance is projected to be in deficit by $17.7 billion in 2015-16.
Current Account Balance: The current account is projected to be in deficit by $2.8 billion in 2015-16 (1% of GDP) as against a deficit of $1.6 billion (0.6% of GDP) estimated for 2014-15.
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Annex-I
Gross Domestic Product
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(2005-06 Prices)
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% Change
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2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
Items Revised Target Prov. Target
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1. COMMODITY PROD. SECTORS 3.5 4.9 3.2 5.1
A) AGRICULTURE 2.7 3.3 2.9 3.9
Important Crops 8.0 2.5 0.3 3.2
OtherCrops -5.4 3.0 1.1 4.5
Cotton Ginned -1.3 2.0 7.4 5.0
Livestock 2.8 3.9 4.1 4,1
Fishery 1.0 2.0 5.8 3.0
Forestry -6.7 2.0 3.1 4.0
B) INDUSTRY 4.5 6.6 3.6 6.4
Mining&Quarrying 1.6 6.0 3.8 6.0
Manufacturing (1+11+111) 4.5 6.9 3.2 6.1
I) Large-Scale Manufacturing 4.0 7.0 2.4 6.0
II) Small & Household 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.3
III) Others* 3,4 3.6 3.3 3.7
Construction 7.2 7.0 7.0 8.5
Electricity Generation & Gas Distribution 5.6 5.0 1.9 6.0
11) SERVICES 4.4 5.3 5.0 5.7
Transport, Storage & Communications 4.6 5.0 4.2 6.1
Wholesale & Retail Trade 4.0 5.0 3.4 5.5
Finance and Insurance 4,2 6.0 6.2 6.5
I-lousing Services 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
General Government Services 2.9 6.0 9.4 6.0
Other Private Services 6.3 6.5 5.9 6.4
4.0 5.1 4.2 5.5
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-- Covers slaughtering of animals in accordance with Islamic Sharia (Zabiha).
-- Sources: PBS and Planning Commission.
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Annex-Il
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Macroeconomic Framework
(Current Market Prices)
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% Growth
Items 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2012-13 2013-14/ 2014-15/ 2015-16
Final Revised Prov Target 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
(Rs. Billion) % Growth
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GDP (bp) 21,497 23,904 25,822 28,873 1,221.3 11.2 8.0 11.8
Indirec taxes(Net) 882 1,164 1,562 1,799 28.8 31.9 34.2 15.2
GDP (mp) 22,379 25,068 27,384 30,672 868.0 12.0 9.2 12.0
Net Factor Income from Abroad 22,379 1,429 1,678 1,825 11.6 -93.6 17.4 8.8
GNP(mp) 44,758 26,497 29,061 32,497 100.2 -40.8 9.7 11.8
External Resources Inflow (net) 241 322 166 295 -41.9 33.4 -48.6 78.0
Total Resources/Uses 44,999 26,819 29,227 32,792 97.6 -40.4 9.0 12.2
Total Consumption 41,651 23,063 25,087 27,354 107.9 -44.6 8.8 9.0
Total Investment 3,348 3,756 4,140 5,438 22.3 12.2 10.2 31.4
Fixed Investment 2,990 3,355 3,702 4,948 10.7 12.2 10.3 33.7
Public incl. General Govt. 788 842 1,057 1,212 4.9 6.8 25.6 14.7
Private 2,202 2,513 2,645 3,735 12.9 14.1 5.2 41.2
Changes in Stocks 358 401 438 491 868.0 12.0 9.2 12.0
National Savings 3,107 3,434 3,974 5,144 33.7 10.5 15.7 29.4
As % of GDP(mp)
Total Investment 15.0 15.0 15.1 17.7
Fixed Investment 13.4 13.4 13.5 16.1
Public incl. General Govt. 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.0
Private 9.8 10.0 9.7 12.2
National Savings 13.9 13.7 14.5 16.8
External Resources Inflow (net) 1.1 1.3 0.6 1.0
Memo Items
Inflation 7.1 6.9 3.6 6.0
GNP(mp) Per Capita (Rs) 128,968 142,312 153,060 167,915 9.4 10.3 7.6 9.7
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Source: PBS & Planning Commission
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Table 1: Performance of Important Crops
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Percentag
Area 000' hectares Percentage Production '000' Change
Change tonnes
2013-14 2014-15 2013-14 2014-15
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Cotton (M. Bales) 2806 2961 5.54 12.8 13.9 9.50
Sugarcane 1,173 1141 -2.73 67460 62652 -7.13
Rice 2,789 2891 3.64 6798 7005 3.05
Wheat 9,199 9180 -0.22 25979 25478 -1.93
Maize 1,168 1130 -3.27 4944 4695 -5.04
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Source: Based on PBS Data 2014
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Table 2: FBR Tax Collection
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(Rs Billion)
Target FBR collection
2014-15 July-April % change as % of full year
(Revised) 2013-14 2014-15 V-IV/III target
I II III IV VI
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Total taxes 2,691 1,745 1,969 12.8 73.2
Direct taxes 1,124 658 771 17.2 68.6
Indirect Taxes 1,567 1,087 1,197 10.1 76.4
Sales tax 1,115 795 843 6.0 75.6
Federal Excise 169 104 120 15.4 71.0
Customs 283 188 235 25.0 83.0
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Source:- Federal Board of Revenue
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Table 3: Monetary Aggregates
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(Billion Rs)
Factors Affecting Broad Money (M2) Growth Stocks at Monetary Impact
End of Since 1st July to
June 2014 8-May-15 9-May-14
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A. Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System 600.99 220.07 243.71
Growth 36.61% 40.55%
B. Net Domestic Assets of the Banking System (1+2+3) 9367.04 510.47 380.61
Growth 5.45% 4.43%
1. Net Government Sector Borrowing (a+h+c) 6064.25 579.66 175.06
a. Borrowing for Budgetary Support 5549.36 601.14 240.20
i. From SBP of which 2409.80 -532.41 -10.45
Federal Government (Net) 2567.68 -455.50 160.25
of which Deposits with SBP -383.57 159.09 -256.70
Provincial Government -154.98 -70.24 -165.50
ii. From Scheduled Banks (net) 3139.56 1133.55 250.65
b. Commodity Operations 492.44 -20.76 -65.00
c. Others 22.46 -0.70 -0.18
2. Credit to Non-Government Sector (a+b+c+d) 4102.03 223.80 348.08
a. Credit to Private Sector 3728.73 161.70 292.92
b. Credit to Public Sector Enterprises 378.78 62.08 55.09
c. PSE Special Account-Debt Repayment with SBP -24.08 0 0
d. Other Financial Institutions (SBP Credit to NBFIs) 18.59 0.008 062
3. Other Items(Net) -799.24 -293.01 142.53
Broad Money (M2) 9968.04 730.54 624.32
Growth 7.33% 7.05%
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Source: State Bank of Pakistan
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Table 4: Changes in Price Indices
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(Base year 2007-08)
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(%)
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July-April
Indices 2013-14 2013-14 2014-15
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Consumer Price Index (CPI) 8.6 8.7 4.8
Food 9.0 9.3 3.6
Non-food 5.7 8.2 5.7
Core 8.3 8.2 6.9
Wholesale Price Index (WPI) 8.2 8.3 0.0
Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) 10.0 10.3 2.1
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Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
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