NEW YORK: The dollar fell to a two-month low against a basket of currencies and a one-year low against the euro on Thursday after US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its rate hiking cycle.
The producer price index (PPI) for final demand dropped 0.5% last month. In the 12 months through March, the PPI increased 2.7%. That was the smallest year-on-year rise since January 2021 and followed a 4.9% advance in February.
It comes after consumer price index (CPI) inflation data on Wednesday came in at 5% year-on-year in March, down from 6% in February. Core inflation - which strips out volatile food and energy prices - picked up to 5.6%, from 5.5% the previous month.
“We are headed back to a low inflation world, that’s the message of the market right now,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto. “The next big trade is that the inflation scare is over.”
The dollar index fell to 100.86, the lowest since Feb. 2. The euro reached $1.10660, the highest since April 1, 2022.
The single currency is being boosted by a relatively more hawkish European Central Bank that is expected to keep raising rates to tackle inflation.
“We have seen a dramatic swing in interest differentials in favour of the euro,” said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro.
“The combination of falling US inflation and rising recession risks have driven expectations of three Fed interest rate cuts this year compared to further hikes from the still-hawkish ECB.” Fed funds futures traders are pricing for the Fed’s benchmark rate to peak at 5.002% in June, from 4.830% now, before falling back to 4.278% in December.
The next major US economic release will be retail sales on Friday, which will be analyzed for how inflation is affecting consumer spending.
Other data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, a further sign that labor market conditions were loosening up as higher borrowing costs dampen demand in the economy.
The dollar fell 0.80% against the yen to 132.13. The Aussie dollar, which is sensitive to risk appetite, gained 1.05% to $0.6765.
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