SINGAPORE: Spot gold may test a support at $1,558 per ounce in the fourth quarter, a break below could open the way towards $1,437.
A five-wave cycle from $1,045.85 has completed at the March high of $2,069.89.
A retracement analysis on the cycle reveals a break below the 38.2% retracement of $1,679.
The metal is expected to seek a support at $1,558.
Given that both the supports at $1,829 and $1,679 triggered bounces, the support at $1,558 may stop the fall and cause another bounce.
The anticipated bounce could be classified as a pullback towards the neckline of a double-top.
Spot gold may retest support at $1,627
It may be limited to $1,679, where the neckline formed.
This double-top suggests a target around $1,288. It seems there is still a big room of the downside.
A detailed study on the daily chart reveals the complex wave structure of the downtrend. A double-zigzag or triple-zigzag is developing.
The current wave c may travel into a range of $1,526-$1,568 range, as pointed by a falling channel and suggested by a projection analysis.
This range engulfs the 50% retracement of $1,558 on the daily chart. The chance of a decent bounce will be very high.
Probably, the bounce will be driven by a wave x, as the downtrend may adopt a triple-zigzag mode.
A falling channel suggests that a strong bounce may not occur until gold falls to $1,568. There might some minor bounces during the fall.
None of them could reverse the trend.
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