Testing times

Moody’s rating on financial health of the country is widely considered as meaningful with consequences for the country. In its latest review, Moody’s views the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan as a credit negative, which raises significant uncertainty over policy continuity, as well as the government’s ability to continue to implement reforms to increase productivity growth and secure external financing, including from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Moody’s assessment comes at a critical time when the entire world is passing through a delicate period because of rising inflation and commodity prices. The world is facing disruptions in supplies and growing political uncertainty as well.

Pakistan in these times is most vulnerable financially. Moreover, it is required to perform a balancing act, making gestures towards the bloc comprising China and Russia as its principal components as well as the US-led West.

Making the right choice between the two blocs is extremely challenging for Pakistan. Pakistan for its financial survival remains too much dependent on lenders like International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank both greatly influenced by the US.

On top of this, Pakistan’s financial worries are growing with significant widening of the current account deficit, erosion of foreign-exchange reserves and the rupee slide. These factors threaten government’s external repayment capacity and heighten liquidity risks. At risk is also the IMF programme.

Regretfully, the elected legislators and political leadership of the country, both from the treasury and the opposition benches, are indifferent to the criticality of the situation facing the country.

Both sides claim to be fighting for the people’s rights as the torch-bearers of democracy. Unfortunately, however, their agendas are devoid of any strategy that can bring about any improvement in people’s lives, nor do they want to strengthen democracy in an effective and meaningful manner. It is more than apparent that this confrontation nothing to do with people’s welfare or country’s good.

Democracy is all about consultations and negotiations between political adversaries to find a common ground with a view to settling disputes in the best interest of the nation and its people. Opposition’s one-point agenda is the ouster of PM Imran Khan and his government through a vote of no-confidence whereas the incumbent government intends to fight it out inside and outside assembly.

The PM has publicly announced that he would be more dangerous for the opposition when out of power. This means that his ouster will not end the current political strife in the country. This would also make it difficult, if not impossible, for the new government to steer the country out of woods successfully.

An early election announcement by the incumbent government and its acceptance by the opposition could have and avert the nasty situation the country is been sucked into.

(The writer is former President, Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022