It is that time of the year again. As cotton harvest season looms in, casual lamentation of crop’s decline and the reasons thereof begins. Even highest global prices in nearly 10 years have failed to revive the area under cotton crop during the ongoing season. As per PCCC’s estimates, national acreage is at least 13 percent less than last season, and lowest in 43 years!
Put another way, compared to present, Pakistan had more area under cotton crop before Tarbela and Mangla dams were commissioned; that brought thousands of acres under irrigated cultivation! The crop is simply no longer popular with local farmers, especially in regions where growers have access to substitute crops. But which crop exactly has done the most damage to cotton’s fortunes?
Although most commentators are quick to point at sugarcane as cotton’s worst enemy, this is far from accurate. Consider that since FY12, cotton has lost nearly half of the 8 million acres sown at its peak. Meanwhile, sugarcane has gained only 0.5 million acres during the same period. Clearly, attributing all of cotton’s loss to sugarcane is at best disingenuous. To better understand the underlying trends that have overcome cotton during the last decade, a region-wise analysis of competing crops cultivation in Punjab province is presented hereunder.
Under the Punjab Control on Establishment and Enlargement Ordinance, sugar mill establishment was banned in central and southern Punjab districts, beginning from Toba Tek Singh, Sahiwal, Pakpattan, to Multan, Lodhran, Khanewal, Vehari, Muzaffargarh, Layyah, D.G. Khan, Rajanpur, Bahawalpur, RY Khan, and Bahawalnagar. This was ostensibly done to protect “cotton belt” in the region.
Although it is correct that the ordinance was suspended on several occasions to issue sugar mill licenses to politically-connected groups during mid-2000s, the spillover damage has largely been restricted to Rahim Yar Khan district. Until 2012, cotton was the largest crop in 17 out of 20 districts of central and southern Punjab. Today, the crop has lost that mantle in at least 9 districts, retaining its dominance only in the deep south.
What happened? Undoubtedly, expansion of sugar mills in Rahim Yar Khan must bear some blame, cane cultivation has hardly gain substantial acres outside of that region. Instead, cotton now faces stiff competition from various rice varieties, starting from central Punjab districts of Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, to Pakpattan and D.G. Khan in south, where rice is now the mostly popular kharif crop.
Cotton’s bleak fortunes can be gauged from the fact that it is now in third and fourth place in at least 11 out of 20 districts. In districts such as Sahiwal, Okara, Pakpattan and Vehari, cotton has even fewer acres under plantation than kharif maize! Remember, that maize plantation in Punjab is preferred during spring (rabi) season, due to higher yields. Yet, demand dynamics has made maize so popular with growers that it now is the top kharif crop in Sahiwal and Vehari, formerly considered cotton heartlands. In fact, in Pakpattan, Okara and Kasur, even potato crop has more acres under cultivation than cotton!
Ergo, cotton’s route – at least in Punjab – has been complete and comprehensive. Although it could be argued that higher productivity in certain regions – such as RYK – has dealt a bigger blow to cotton output than its demise in Kasur, for example. But consider the corollary: cotton is still the top crop in districts such as Layyah, Rajanpur, D.G. Khan, and Muzaffargarh, areas where in FY12 the crop had lowest yield compared to other districts, wherein farmers have successfully switched over to alternatives.
Thus, it could be argued that rather than placing the blame on competing crops for cotton’s downfall, farmers’ switch to higher yielding substitutes in other regions may have in fact lifted their incomes and profitability. A luxury not available to many others in deep south, where land is only suitable for cotton cultivation. Cotton is still the second largest crop (by area) in Punjab. But for how much longer?
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