Rouble steadies near 74 vs dollar; central bank action eyed

MOSCOW: The Russian rouble eased on Thursday but later stabilised near the 74-mark against the dollar, as the market was looking for more clues on whether the central bank will raise rates next month.

At 0747 GMT, the rouble was flat on the day at 73.94 against the dollar, away from a one-week high of 73.6625 it touched on Wednesday.

Versus the euro, the rouble was steady at 83.02.

The rouble may receive extra support if the central bank raises its key interest rate from 6.5% next month to rein in inflation, which spiked to a five-year high.

On Thursday, the central bank is set to publish a report on inflationary expectations, which were elevated recently, providing the bank with grounds to raise rates.

Inflation is a sensitive issue for Russia ahead of a September parliamentary election as it eats into incomes already dented by the COVID-19 crisis and a weak rouble.

Higher rates make lending more expensive and also increase the appeal of rouble assets, while indications that the rate-hiking cycle is close to an end and could reverse in the future should spark inflows into Russia's OFZ treasury bonds.

"Today we expect the rouble to move towards the middle of our target range of 73.5-76 (versus the dollar). The weakness of the local currency will be mostly linked to the absence of positive factors," Promsvyazbank's chief analyst Egor Zhilnikov said.

The target range for the dollar-rouble pair on Thursday is 73.50-74.10, Freedom Finance brokerage said in a note.

Russian stock indexes were down, pricing in a 1.2% drop in Brent crude prices to $71.40.

The dollar-denominated RTS index was down 0.4% at 1,646.7 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.5% lower at 3,866.6 points.