EDITORIAL: Of late, there has been a flurry of contacts and meetings between Pakistani and US officials regarding the US desire to have air bases and flight corridors for surveillance against the possible resurgence of anti-US terrorism from Afghan soil or indeed the broader region. The US Charge d’ Affaires, Angela Aggeler, met COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa, twice in a month. As is the norm, the ISPR statement regarding such meetings is so general as to reveal nothing of substance. In the past fortnight or so, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken called Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the National Security Advisers of both countries met in Geneva, and reportedly there have been several other unannounced contacts. The probable agenda that emerges from reports consists of two elements, inextricably intertwined. One, a possible US desire for air bases and corridors in Pakistan (preferably) or other countries in the region. Two, the broader US-Pakistan relationship post-withdrawal. On the first, General Frank McKenzie, chief of the US Central Command, in congressional testimony in April 2021 spilt the beans by saying a significant diplomatic effort is afoot to determine where the US will base its counterterrorism force in the region, although he admitted no such understanding exists at present. US Assistant Secretary Defence David F Helvey told the Senate Armed Services Committee that Pakistan has allowed overflights and access for monitoring terrorism in and around Afghanistan. A slight ambiguity surrounds the statement whether Helvey was referring to the past or the future, since the US-Pakistan relationship is not in the best of health after the then US President Donald Trump accused Pakistan of playing a double game and cut off all security assistance, a situation that persists despite the Biden administration having taken office. These statements and the speculations they gave rise to prompted the Foreign Office and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi to categorically deny any US bases existed in Pakistan or would be allowed, in the name of safeguarding national interests and promoting the Afghan peace process. The Taliban have threatened any such move would be considered hostile.
It may be recalled that General Pervez Musharraf (retd) permitted the US invading/occupying forces in Afghanistan access through a land and air corridor to landlocked Afghanistan, later even allowing bases from which US drones and other aircraft operated. The air bases were taken back before Musharraf’s ouster, but the corridors continue, with their importance enhanced during the US troops’ withdrawal. Already, while that withdrawal is still in progress, the Taliban have been nibbling away at outposts of the Afghan government, triggering takeovers and surrenders that bring the Taliban closer to encirclement of the cities. These developments point clearly to the Taliban preparing for an all-out offensive once the last US forces leave. The US is less interested in the fate of the country it has devastated by its intervention and more in ensuring no repeat of 9/11 becomes possible. The desire for bases and corridors is aimed, first and foremost, to ensure this through surveillance. The second motivation may be listening posts for the broader region, up to and including Russia and China. However, Pakistan has only negative memories of hosting US bases, stretching as far back as Badaber. Times have changed, and Pakistani official and citizens’ opinion seems set against a repeat of such compromise of national sovereignty at the behest of Washington. Pakistan’s dilemma at present is to ensure power-sharing rather than exclusive Taliban control of Afghanistan, which may trigger a fresh civil war, refugee inflows, and a destabilisation of the region that could have serious economic, political and security consequences. At the same time, after the US defeat in Afghanistan, critical to which, according to the US, has been Pakistan’s support to the Taliban, fence-mending is being attempted to placate Washington and restore US economic and security-related largesse. This is currently the national interest bottom line, with a balance being attempted between US-Pakistan and China-Pakistan ties. No easy task/s.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
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