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Any analysis of long-term regional productivity would reveal that farmers in Sindh have historically enjoyed higher returns compared to their friends in the northern province. Tons of explanations exist for this phenomenon: from relatively larger farm holding sizes in the southern province encouraging economies of scale, to longer dry summer spells that make crops less susceptible to pest attacks. On the flipside, dry weather patterns means that Sindh’s growers must choose from a limited basket of crop choices, especially among grains and cash crops.

In order to increase output, Sindh’s farmers do not have much of a choice but to focus on productivity maximization. Provincial net area under cultivation has long been maxed out at 3.6 million hectares, as the ratio of current fallow land to area sown more than once (in a year) has declined from 4 times to 2.3 times over the past two decades. Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggests that farmers in the province derive a smaller share of their earnings from livestock, thus making them more dependant on better performance of crops.

It is in this context that the secular stagnation in Sindh’s crop productivity is fast becoming alarming. Although growers in the province still enjoy higher yields compared to Punjab’s on average, the difference is fast diminishing.

Over the past two decades, Sindh recorded massive advances in productivity that came on the back of improvement of water courses in the province followed by increase in actual surface water availability during both cropping seasons. By FY12, crop yields across all four major crops had improved by at least 15 percent compared to a decade earlier. In fact, average yield had doubled in the case of cotton, while growing by over one-third for wheat.

But much has gone wrong ever since. Crop yields that had been growing at 4 to 8 percent annually (long term average) between FY01 – FY12 have since stagnated, recording negative annual growth in the case of wheat, cotton, and rice since FY13. While many are quick to blame water stress for Sindh’s changing fortunes, IRSA numbers tell a different story.

For one, because the southern province is wholly dependent on canal water for farming, Sindh’s irrigation supply has always been more erratic and dependent on river flows. Compared to Punjab’s farmers, most Sindh growers have never had access to groundwater supplies due to its salinity. While it is correct that water stress has become more pronounced in recent years – especially since the flood year – in the past Sindh has managed to improve its crops’ productivity despite volatility in river flows. The academically inclined readers might recall that Sindh suffered from droughts in early 2000s, yet still managed to improve productivity for most major crops during the period.

The secular stagnation in Sindh’s crop productivity warrants urgent intervention, but also requires a comprehensive investigation that examines changing climatic patterns and effects on crop productivity, and possible changes in regions traditionally considered favourable for some crops which may no longer be true. Sindh’s agricultural policymakers, for example, must ask whether given the erratic and volatile availability, is the province growing best suited crops or should it switch over to more drought resistant varieties?

Most importantly, the province must jettison the 20th century paradigm of self-sufficiency and consider whether its rural economy would be better off if it generated surpluses in drought resistant crops that could be traded in exchange for grains consumed locally, both with regional and international trade partners. The census of 2017 has revealed that the widely believed rural population of the province has now been reduced to a minority. Based on most recent output estimates and population numbers, Sindh’s claim to grain self-sufficiency already stands doubtful.

It may not be long before the producers in the province have little influence over prices of commodities produced indigenously, if a significant quantum is procured/imported from outside the region. It is high time that policymakers ask tough questions regarding the future trajectory of agricultural sector in the province. Questioning the current crop mix may be a good place to start.

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