ISLAMABAD: Irsa Advisory Committee (IAC) on Thursday anticipated 10 per cent water shortage during early Kharif and 4 per cent in late Kharif 2021, amid accusations of theft and higher losses amongst the representatives of provinces.
This estimate was agreed between the stakeholders at an online IAC meeting convened to approve the Kharif 2021 anticipated water availability criteria from April 1, 2021 to September 30, 2021 under the chairmanship of Engr. Rao Irshad Ali Khan, Chairman/Member IRSA Punjab at IRSA HQs Islamabad. IAC reviewed the Rabi 2020-21 system operation and observed that the actual rim- station inflows of 21.14 MAF remained 10% less than forecast volume of 23.44 MAF. Despite the reduction in inflows, the IAC expressed satisfaction that the actual provincial withdrawals remained at 31.21 MAF, i.e., 15% short and a little less than the anticipated shortfall of 10%, due to less than expected system losses of 0.57 MAF as compared to anticipation of 2.35 MAF.
The provinces received indented supplies. Downstream Kotri releases remained at 0.556 MAF. IAC discussed the recommendations of IRSA Technical Committee (ITC) meeting held on March 26, 2021. After a comprehensive discussion and inputs from all stakeholders, losses of 30% and 15% in Indus Zone during early and late Kharif, respectively, and 10% and 0% losses in JC Zone during early and late Kharif, respectively, as proposed by WAPDA were agreed.
Members IRSA Sindh and Balochistan insisted on adopting losses of 35 % on the Indus during early Kharif period. However, to resolve the long-standing issue of system losses, a joint committee - comprising IRSA Members Punjab and Sindh, respective representatives of the Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs) and Chief Engineering Advisor’s (CEA) office, would undertake the flow measurements at required locations and recommend the actual losses based on those observations.
PID Sindh also insisted on distribution of water as per Para 2 of the Accord, however, it was stated that the issue is pending with Council of Common Interest (CCI), therefore, the water distribution shall be made as per practice in vogue, which is very much within the parameters of the Water Accord 1991.
Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) said that during the months of January to March, 2021 rainfall in the country remained below normal. He said during April – May 2021, it is anticipated that rainfall catchment temperature may remain normal. The forecast for monsoon will be issued in June 2021, he added.
After detailed deliberations, the following likely inflows at Rim Stations for Kharif 2021 were agreed, compared to last year and last 10-year inflows: (i) The Indus at Tarbela will be 52.532 MAF against 44.912 MAF during Kharif 2020 whereas average inflows on the basis of last 10 years will be 48.871 MAF; (ii) the Kabul at Nowshera will be 17.950 MAF against 18.512 MAF of Kharif 2020 and 17.490 MAF on last ten years average; (iii) the Jhelum at Mangla will be 16.356 MAF in Kharif 2021 as compared to 15.972 MAF and 16.048 MAF on average; (iv) Chenab at Marala, 19.407 MAF as compared to last year’s Kharif of 18.406 MAF and 19.222 MAF on average; and (iv) Eastern rivers component, 2.500 MAF as compared to 2.937 MAF and 3.406 MAF of ten years average.
This anticipates that average inflows will be 108.745 MAF in Kharif 20321 as compared to 100.739 MAF during Kharif 2020 and 105.037 MAF in Kharif on the basis of 10-year average.
It was noted that current season’s forecast inflows were about 8% higher than the previous year and about 3.5 % higher than the last 10-year average. Based on the agreed rim station inflows, minus storage requirements of 10.495 MAF, minus the expected system losses of 15.150 MAF and unavoidable escapage during flood season of 14.423 MAF downstream Kotri, the following likely anticipated withdrawals at canal heads of respective provinces, compared with the last year and the last 10 year average were authorised by IAC as: Punjab- 34.112 MAF, Sindh, 30.893 MAF, KP)CRCB) 0.823 MAF, Balochistan 2.848 MAF, totaling it to 68.677 MAF against 65.110 MAF during Kharif 2020. However, the anticipated inflows on the basis of 10-year average will be 64.970 MAF.
The likely provincial withdrawals at canal heads of 68.677 MAF were 5.5% higher than last year’s withdrawals of 65.11 MAF and 5.7% higher than last 10-year average of 64.97 MAF. The Basin-wise shortage was approved as 10% for early Kharif and 4% for Late Kharif, 2021. It was agreed by the participants that the likely projected shortages were manageable and hopefully the cropping targets for early and late Kharifs 2021 would be achieved by utilizing efficient and best water management and water application practices.
It was also decided that remaining within the indicated likely shares the provinces would submit their withdrawal plans within 15 days to Irsa. IAC also approved maintenance of Tarbela reservoir levels at 1417 ft SPD till June 10, 2021 to facilitate T3 T4 HPPs ongoing works, in line with the request of Wapda.
However, any unexpected surge in river inflows and Sediment Delta movements in the reservoir due to limited outflows capacity and sustenance of the required levels, respectively, “shall” be the responsibility of the Tarbela authorities. WAPDA was directed to make efforts to complete the works by June 01 to avoid any eventuality.
The following participants, in addition to other related personnel of IRSA, Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIIDs), Provincial Agriculture Departments (PADs), etc, were present in person or via video links: Engr. Zahid Hussain Junejo, Member IRSA, Sindh, Engr. Asjad Imtiaz Ali, Member IRSA, Federal, Engr. Abdul Hameed Mengal, Member IRSA, Balochistan, Engr. Syed Zahid Abbas, Member IRSA, KP, Ahmed Kamal, CEA & CFFC, Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Jamil Akhtar, Member (Power), WAPDA, Nasir Hanif, Advisor Projects, WAPDA, Muhammad Amin, GM (HRM), WAPDA, Zareef Iqbal Khero, Chief Engineer, PID Sindh, Habib Ullah Bodla, Additional Secretary (Tech), Irrigation Dept., Punjab, Muhammad Ayub Soomro, Additional Secretary (T), Irrigation Dept., Sindh, Agha Ahsan Ullah, Director IWT&R, PID Punjab, Engr. Zahoor Muhammad, Director Design/Hydrology, Irrigation Dept., KP, Dr Zaheer Ahmad Babar, Director National Weather Forecasting Centre, Islamabad, Habib Ur Rehman Ursani, Director Regulation, PID Sindh.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
Comments
Comments are closed.