Senate polls: PTI set to emerge as majority party with projected strength of 30 seats

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) is set to emerge as the majority party in the Senate with a projected strength of 30 seats in the 98-member house, against 14 at present, with Prime Minister Imran Khan having reached an arrangement with the politically astute Chaudharys of Gujrat.

Background interviews with PTI members revealed that Imran Khan is focused on prioritizing three categories of aspirants in that order: technocrats, electables/allies with a history of changing loyalties, and long-term party loyalists.

Prime Minister Imran Khan has publicly indicated that experts/technocrats are critical to effective governance as those elected lack the required education and experience. This accounts for an unprecedented large presence of the non-elected in his inner circle with four advisors (maximum allowed by the Constitution is five with Hafeez Sheikh recently appointed as Finance Minister as a six-month interim measure in response to a court decision) and 18 special assistants to the Prime Minister.

Sources close to the Prime Minister revealed to Business Recorder that he is committed to providing Senate seats to as many of his valued advisors/SAPMs that he can manage but has been made fully aware of the reluctance of PTI MPAs in Punjab and KPK to vote for the technocrats - cited as the major reason behind his thrust to introduce a ‘show of hands’ in the forthcoming Senate polls.

Hafeez Sheikh and two other advisors are in the running for a Senate seat notably: (i) Adviser on Commerce and Investment Abdul Razak Dawood, and (ii) Adviser on Institutional Reforms and Austerity Dr Ishrat Hussain.

From Sindh, party sources said that a list of six candidates including Hafeez Sheikh has been sent to the Prime Minister which he discussed with Governor Sindh Imran Ismail during a meeting on Monday. The final decision would be taken by Prime Minister himself, they added. The other candidates included Hunaid Lakhani, Mehmood Molvi, Ashraf Qureshi, Sammar Ali Khan and Saifullah Abro.

Adviser on Parliamentary Affairs Babar Awan and Adviser on Accountability Shehzad Akber are not likely to be given a senate seat, informed sources told Business Recorder.

Special Assistant on Poverty Alleviation Sania Nishtar is also considered to be high on the Prime Minister’s priority for a senate seat based on the criticality of the Ehsaas programme she has administered effectively. Arbab Shehzad, Special Assistant on Establishment is also expected to be high on the PM’s priority list for a senate seat.

The list of electables is likely to include members of MQM, PML-Q, and GDA as well as recommendations made by those members of the federal cabinet who are not long-term PTI loyalists with members of the Opposition claiming they were compelled to join the PTI by the establishment.

The Prime Minister and allied parties to which the electables belong have been tight lipped about the number of senators from their ranks agreed with the Prime Minister but sources maintained that the number could well vary from between 5 to 10. Khusro Bakhtiar (who has been accommodated as a federal minister while his brother is Punjab’s finance minister) joined PTI together with 20 Junoobi Punjab Suba Mahaz (JPSM) leaders from Southern Punjab and there is speculation that he may request for a seat or two.

Cabinet members close to the Prime Minister including Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Pervez Khattak, Asad Umer, Murad Saeed are reportedly seeking support for some of their close friends/associates.

Long-term PTI loyalists may be the lowest priority for the Prime Minister based on the assumption that they are ideologically and emotionally supportive of the PTI in any case. Be that as it may there are some loyalists who may be accommodated such as Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting Shibli Faraz who is going to retire on March 11 and a few others.

The present PTI and allies strength is 29 [PTI 14, MQM-P 5, BAP 9 and PML-F 1] while the total strength of the opposition alliance under the banner of Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) is 61 [PML-N 30, PPP 21, JUI-F 4, BNP-M 1, PkMAP 4, NP 4 and ANP 1]. Out of them, there are also seven independents and two senators belonging to Jamaat-e-Isalmi.

Calculations showed that PTI with 14 senators at present and seven retiring on March 11, 2021, would be able to elect around 23 senators, mostly from Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa but would still require a two-third majority in parliament for any constitutional amendment particularly those clauses of the eighteenth amendment that the Prime Minister has been railing against for example Article 160 (3A) of the Constitution.

However, the party sources said that final list of the candidates would be finalized in a couple of days.

The Senate strength will be five lower than before as four seats have been dissolved from the tribal areas after their merger with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa while the seat won by PML-N’s Ishaq Dar in 2018 remains suspended until March 2024.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021