The Khan government has had its fair share of criticisms, both from within the ruling party and among the political class. Notwithstanding the tirades, the government appears to have started 2021 with more political strength than it did 2020. Paradoxically, the pandemic, which had earlier threatened to undermine this government, has played its part in propping up the shaky regime.
The pandemic’s surprising beneficiaries can be found in other places, too. In his column last week, the FT’s Gideon Rachman argued how “the perverse political effects of Covid-19” might end up strengthening democracies in US (after all Trump lost!) and the EU (there was a rise in continental solidarity). These highly-democratic regions failed the early Covid test, and they are still struggling to control the virus. Now Joe Biden’s American presidency and Angela Merkel’s EU presidency promise competence at the top.
The federal government here, which is operating in a challenging landscape at home and abroad, can count on three main sources of reprieve. Not all of them are of PTI’s own devise, however. But together, these ingredients have served to bake in the status quo such that a full-term in office may become a certainty post-March Senate elections.
One, the opposition parties have been unable to pose a credible threat. The PDM alliance is internally divided due to differences both among and within its constituent political parties. The opposition is also undermined by its leaders getting arrested at inopportune moments. Moreover, people who have fallen on hard times may find it harder to brave the cold and the virus to stage anti-government protests. The political chessboard resembles a stalemate at best, with every passing day raising costs for challengers.
Two, despite the many failings of the government, there is no available “alternative” that can promise something different or something more than what the current ruling party does. Which political party has debated, leave alone produced, a blue-print for post-pandemic economic recovery? Where is the plan to secure Pakistan’s interests in a changing neighborhood? Bottom line: who would want to run a divided country in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic that has hobbled an already enervated economy?
And three, the government has indulged light doses of self-criticism, to convey to the public that they are acknowledging their mistakes. This is smart, albeit a case can be made that “learning” is still largely absent, despite the commissioning and publication of several investigation/inquiry reports. There has been no jail-time for prominent individuals associated with the ruling party, either. But the public at large can be forgiving. Therefore, even admitting some mistakes can restore some tiny bit of public trust.
Back in November, this space had argued that if the PDM couldn’t give the ruling party some rea jolt by December end, the ruling party would go on to consolidate its legislative strength after Senate elections in spring. That time has come and gone. Now desperation might pull the opposition in unchartered waters, so expect a couple of more months of instability. After March, the tide, political and viral, might turn for the better, paving the way for political calm. But is the PTI capable of utilizing optimal conditions to deliver?
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