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BR Research

Climate risk - now Pakistans forte

Published December 1, 2011 Updated December 1, 2011 12:00am

 War on terror has not been the only hurdle in Pakistans economic progress. In recent times, the country had graver issues that needed to be taken care off - the natural calamities that have taken a toll. Pakistans topping the "global climate risk index 2012" shows how serious the problem actually is. In fact, Pakistans top spot has been earned after a more bearable (but not at all complacent) rank of 68 out of 179 in 2009, hinting at gradual deterioration. The index analyses to what extent countries have been affected by impacts of weather-related events. It is designed to take account of both fatalities and economic losses. The index using past vulnerability can serve as a future warning signal. In the worst floods of the countrys history in 2010, more than 2.47 million households were affected, according to United Nations early recovery fact sheet. Agriculture is globally considered to be the sector that is most affected by natural disasters, followed closely by tourism and forestry, as well as sectors closely associated with water, health, sanitation etc. Being an agrarian economy with more than 45 percent of the labor force engaged in agriculture, with the sector contributing more than 21 percent to GDP, any natural hazard directly affects the agriculture sector which in turn give a big blow to the whole economy, unlike other countries ranked high on the index. This phenomenon becomes clear when one looks at the top 10 affected countries index on the CRI: while the average loss as a percentage of GDP was 1.6 percent, Pakistans losses per unit GDP were 5.42 percent. In absolute terms, this stands over $25 billion, with half of the losses attributable to the agriculture sector, according to United Nations. Unfortunately, had local authorities had the will to divert water and stop breaches in canals, a lot of agricultural land, live stock and human lives could have been saved. That floods - which at first looked like a onetime event - are now believed to be a recurring phenomenon, makes the need to pay heed to preventive measures an even serious one, rather than acting once the water has, literally, spilled over. Something has to be done before the worlds largest irrigation systems, once considered a blessing, becomes the biggest threat for the country.

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