The persistent electricity load shedding has managed to do what the politicians have not: It has brought the public on the streets from Karachi to Khyber for a single cause. This is only a matter of time as the inevitability of the power sector troubles turning into widespread crisis are never in doubt. The power shortfall that touched nearly 8,000MW on Sunday has gripped the nation especially the largest province Punjab and chaos ensued. The reasons are widespread - some are genuine and some are mere excuses. The situation was never ideal but it had not gotten out of hand in the recent past by virtue of luck on the part of the government. The vulnerable system is just one stroke away of bad luck which could disturb the whole country. And that is exactly what happened, as all the factors combined to worsen the demand-and-supply gap simultaneously, causing a large-scale shortfall. One factor being cited is lower than optimal hydel generation as the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) refrained from releasing the required amount of water fearing floods. To make matters worse, the nuclear generation capacity also took a hit as the Chashma Nuclear Plant faced technical problems - shutting out 300MW from the grid system. The biggest of all factors, perhaps is again the inter-corporate circular debt which despite the governments verbal assurances continues to haunt the power sector. It goes without saying that the government has failed to address the primary issues that contribute towards persistent and spiralling circular debt. All what has been done is the cosmetic change in the boards of a few power distribution and generation companies. Although vital, this step alone is inefficient to plug the loopholes - addressing which requires strong political will. And political will is what happens to be lacking big time as not only the tariff rationalisation process has been painfully slow, there is little to no improvement in the infrastructure of the power sector, as well. Even the IRSA Chairman earlier pointed out that not having enough dams is resulting in wastage of a huge quantity of water which could otherwise have been utilised in power generation. The progress on construction of new dams is painfully slow which is either affected by the lack of funds or the inability to generate resources. Naturally, the government will, in all probability, convene a meeting, form a committee or two and reassure the public that all problems, including load shedding will soon end. But contrary to this lip service, the problem will in all likelihood worsen in the near future as the government deviates from relevant structural reforms that were previously mandated by the IMF programme. This is likely to result in more complacency and the circular debt will consequently continue piling higher even if the water situation improves, as it is expected to. There will again be some PIBs issued or payments of a few billion rupees to the state-owned circular debt-hit companies; which might bring normalcy for a brief period only to resurface soon after. Complaining that the government has no magic wand will not serve as an excuse anymore because the government has itself wasted sufficient time in which the problems could at least have been addressed if not solved. The solution to the current crisis is easily identifiable and can be addressed. So far the government has remained aloof to the much-needed reforms; however, growing unrest on the streets should sound alarm bells in Islamabad. If concrete steps are not taken to address the electricity crisis soon, the government could face worse nightmares of public unrest.
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