The last thing South Asia needs at this moment of peril is a conflict breaking out among the chief rivals. But the gory details of Indian troops being beaten and falling to their deaths from cliffs in Ladakh, amid suspected casualties on the Chinese side as well, point towards a dangerous pattern that has been building up globally: governments are looking for ways to distract public from inept pandemic response.
For the most part since the 1962 India-China war, the two nations have kept their borders quiet, partly due to the agreed-upon non-lethal rules of engagement. But things have changed over the past decade. While China has become more assertive overseas under Uncle Xi, the Modi government’s “muscular” approach to diplomacy has ended up militarizing public opinion. Several Indian borders are now hot.
On paper, both China and India have a lot going for them if they work together on global multilateral forums. Protecting a rules-based international trade, financial and investment order benefits these rising economic powers. Counting over a third of global population between them, the duo can force global change on issues like climate change, development financing, digital colonialism, disarmament, etc.
But it will be a delicate thing to find balance between regional competition and global cooperation. Right now, there is no other option for the two countries but to back down from the escalation ladder and find a way to move past the deadly events of the past few days. The official statements on the two sides reflect a desire to restore normal relations, but neither of the countries can afford to be seen as weak at home.
Key is to avoid what historians have been referring to as the “Thucydides Trap” since the clash of Sparta with Athens: war becomes inevitable when the rise of a new power threatens the interests/stakes of an established power. Two traps are currently laid in the world. One, the global superpower US is apprehensive of China’s global rise, which it is trying to contain with India’s help. And two, the regional superpower China is wary of India’s regional designs, so it works with neighbors to keep her off balance.
The risk of further provocation is significant, as India may have painted itself into a corner. In contrast with China where the Ladakh episode was treated as low-key by the media (by design, of course), Indian politicians and media have whipped up the frenzy, calling for military and economic response. It perhaps helps that China is keeping its options open, by talking it out and not releasing its count of fatalities.
If the skirmishes start again, there will likely be some implications for Pakistan. At the extreme, a large-scale regional conflict may rope in the country, with potentially fatal human consequences and economic progress further derailed for years to come. More likely is a rise in Indo-Pak border hostilities, and what Pakistan refers to as ‘false-flag operations’, as India will try to divert its public’s attention from embarrassment elsewhere. Neither scenario is welcome. Tread carefully. Focus on defeating the virus.
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