MANILA: Developing Asia is likely to grow more slowly than previously thought this year and next, and the outlook could worsen if President-elect Donald Trump makes swift changes to US trade policy, the Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday.

Developing Asia, which includes 46 Asia-Pacific countries stretching from Georgia to Samoa - and excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand - is projected to grow 4.9% this year and 4.8% next year, slightly lower than the ADB’s forecasts of 5.0% and 4.9% in September.

The downgraded growth estimates reflect lacklustre economic performance in some economies during the third quarter and a weaker outlook for consumption, the bank said.

ADB increases climate finance after US, Japan give world’s first sovereign guarantees

Growth forecasts for China remain unchanged at 4.8% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, but the ADB lowered its projections for India to 6.5% for 2024 from 7.0% previously, and to 7.0% for next year from 7.2%.

“Changes to US trade, fiscal, and immigration policies could dent growth and boost inflation in developing Asia,” the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook report, though it noted most effects were likely to manifest beyond the 2024-2025 forecast horizon.

Trump, who takes office on Jan. 20, has threatened to impose tariffs in excess of 60% on US imports of Chinese goods, crackdown on illegal migrants, and extend tax cuts.

“Downside risks persist and include faster and larger US policy shifts than currently envisioned, a worsening of geopolitical tensions, and an even weaker PRC (People’s Republic of China) property market,” the ADB said.

The ADB lowered its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 to 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, from 2.8% and 2.9% previously, due to softening global commodity prices.

BEIJING: Chinese President Xi Jinping warned Tuesday that there would be “no winners” in a trade war with the United States and vowed the country would hit its growth goals for the year.

Former US president Donald Trump — who returns to the White House next month — unleashed a gruelling trade war with China during his first term in office, lambasting alleged intellectual property theft and other “unfair” practices.

He has pledged to impose even higher tariffs on China after taking office on January 20, as Beijing is grappling with a shaky post-pandemic economic recovery.

“Tariff wars, trade wars, and technology wars go against historical trends and economic rules, and there will be no winners,” Xi said of China-US relations while meeting several heads of multilateral financial institutions in Beijing, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

“China is willing to maintain dialogue with the US government, expand cooperation, manage differences and promote the development of China-US relations in a stable, healthy and sustainable direction,” said Xi.

Beijing is targeting annual growth this year of around five percent, despite sluggish domestic consumption, high unemployment and a prolonged crisis in the vast property sector.

Xi also said during Tuesday’s meeting that China had “full confidence” in achieving its 2024 growth goal, state media reported.

His remarks came as official data showed the country’s exports rose last month at a slower rate than expected while imports shrunk further, underscoring the challenges China is still facing.

The latest reading reinforced the need for more support a day after top officials pledged to bolster stuttering growth.

Overseas shipments this year have represented a rare bright spot in the Chinese economy, with domestic spending mired in a slump and persistent woes in the property sector spooking investors.

Exports jumped 6.7 percent on-year to $312.3 billion last month, China’s General Administration of Customs said.

But the figure was much slower than the 8.7 percent anticipated by economists in a Bloomberg survey and well down from the 12.7 percent leap in October, which was the strongest in more than two years. The data showed exports grew 5.4 percent on-year in January-November.

“China’s exports were perhaps the biggest upside surprise for the economy in 2024,” wrote Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.

This is “one of the main reasons China is set to achieve its ‘around five percent’ growth target” for this year, he added.

Analysts have suggested the recent surge in shipments is because foreign buyers fearing another trade standoff were racing to beat any possible tariffs on Chinese goods by Trump.

“We could see some frontloading of exports in the coming few months but momentum is likely to soften after this is done, unless the outcome of tariff negotiations is surprisingly positive,” wrote Song.

The 3.9 percent drop in imports last month extended a slide in the previous month — and was much worse than the 0.9 percent rise forecast — as domestic demand continues to be dampened by lacklustre consumer spending.

The readings come as investors closely watch signals from Chinese leaders, who are convening this week in Beijing for a series of key meetings on economic planning for the coming year.

The Politburo, China’s top decision-making body, on Monday urged “vigorous” support for consumption and a loosening of monetary policy in 2025.

NEW YORK: US President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday there would be “hell to pay” in the Middle East if hostages held in the Gaza Strip were not released prior to his Jan. 20 inauguration.

During their deadly 2023 attack on Israel, Hamas-led captured more than 250 people, according to Israeli tallies, including dual Israeli-American nationals.

Around half of the 101 foreign and Israeli hostages still held incommunicado in Gaza are believed to be alive.

Making his most explicit comments on the fate of the hostages since his election in November, Trump said on social media: “ the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity.”

EDITORIAL: US President-elect Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social, his social media platform, that if BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) do not use the dollar as their reserve currency the United States would impose 100 percent tariffs.

BRICS has granted full membership to four countries - Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates - while Saudi Arabia has not yet responded to an invite to become a full member.

During the recent BRICS summit meeting in Kazan 13 countries were invited to participate as partner countries though no membership invitations were extended. The list of those seeking membership is reportedly close to 40, including Pakistan.

Be that as it may, the transactional dominance of the dollar remains with around 88 percent share, record high, in trade invoicing, cross border liabilities and foreign currency debt issuance; while the dollar’s share in SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) is at 43 percent (Euro’s at 32 percent with the Eurozone countries toeing the US foreign policy line especially with respect to imposing sanctions), which gives the US powers to monitor and stop all payments.

Trump known for making standalone statements has clearly not considered three prevailing factors: (i) the US share of global Gross Domestic Product has been steadily declining - from 45 percent after World War II to 25 percent today - a decline attributable to globalisation with US manufacturing shifting to countries where cheaper inputs were available and the consequent rise of China; (ii) Yuefen Li, Economist and Special Adviser on South-South Cooperation and Development Finance, South Centre, Geneva, writing for the International Banker argues that the “the supremacy of the dollar gives rise to global demand for it as a safe asset for foreign reserves and investments.

This exorbitant advantage allows the US to import foreign goods and services more often than not at a low rate when compared to the sizeable excess in return on US-backed capital exported back to the rest of the world, including interest income, portfolio equity positions and other capital exports in dollars;” and Li cites a study by Gourinchas and Rey that concluded that “US foreign liabilities are almost entirely in dollars, with 70 percent US foreign assets in foreign currencies implying thereby that a 10 percent dollar depreciation represents a transfer of around 5.9 percent of US GDP from the rest of the world to the US; and (iii) the weaponization of the dollar by imposing sanctions; or the increasing use of the policy to achieve foreign policy aims through economic sanctions. On 25th April this year, the US Congress passed a law titled ‘Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (REPO) for Ukrainians Act’, allowing the US to confiscate Russian sovereign assets under US jurisdiction to support Ukraine’s war effort – a move that no doubt strengthened Russia’s resolve towards de-dollarisation.

The bulk of the Russia’s sovereign assets were held in Europe, who shied away from appropriating these assets, but agreed under US pressure, to appropriate the interest due on these assets and advance that as a loan to Ukraine.

There is also increasing evidence that a BRICS corridor has been formed that allows China, with its fast growing economy likely to overtake the US economy in another decade or so, access to Iranian oil, another sanctioned country.

It is obvious that Trump needs to understand and accept the fact that the foreign policy of the Middle Eastern allies has changed dramatically since four years ago with the ongoing Israeli genocide in Gaza, the balance of military might no longer giving Israel escalation dominance (reflected by its failure to declare a conclusive victory) and the Chinese brokered truce between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which reportedly led to Saudi Arabia refusing to allow use of their airspace by Israel to attack Iran.

Sanctions or using air power to bomb any sovereign nation to oblivion is no longer a serious threat as traditional rivals have developed mitigating strategies to counter these threats.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

BRASILIA: Most Latin American currencies were set for monthly losses on Friday, as worries over US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies and escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine weighed on investor sentiment.

Brazil’s real traded in uncharted territory, dropping 0.6% to 6.0495 per dollar and on track for a more than 5% monthly drop, while its stock index fell 0.4%.

Brazilian assets have been mauled this week after its government proposed late on Wednesday to expand income-tax exemptions for lower-income Brazilians and increase taxes on those who earn more, while outlining plans to trim public spending in coming years.

“The fiscal measures announced have apparently failed to assuage market concerns about the stability of Brazil’s fiscal debt trajectory,” Dev Ashish, Latin American economist at Societe Generale wrote in a note.

“The announcement was disappointing for several reasons as the proposals come at a time when the economy is overheating due to excessive fiscal support for income and consumption.”

Uncertainty over the fiscal measures has been driving volatility in Brazilian markets amid concerns the government has not done enough to meet new budget rules passed last year to rein in the growth of public debt.

Mexico’s peso appreciated 0.3% against a globally weakening dollar, though it was set for its second-straight monthly fall.

The Mexican currency had come under pressure early this week when Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico.

MSCI’s index for Latin American currencies dropped 0.6% to its lowest level in more than 18 months, on track to log its second-straight monthly fall.

The stocks index was also set for a monthly loss, trading at its lowest level since July 2022 and down 1.1% on the day.

SHANGHAI: China’s yuan edged up on Friday against a soft dollar, on track for its first weekly gain in two months that partly reflects Beijing’s success in slowing the currency’s slide in the face of tariff threats from Donald Trump.

Nevertheless the yuan is headed for its biggest monthly loss in nearly 1-1/2 years, and analysts say volatility will likely remain high with a Sino-US trade war looming under Trump’s presidency.

On Friday, the yuan was changing hands around 7.2333 at midday, 0.15% stronger than Thursday’s closing price, having rebounded 0.3% from a four-month low hit on Tuesday.

The dollar index fell 0.2% to a two-week low.

Also aiding the yuan, a Reuters poll showed on Friday that China’s home prices are expected to fall at a slower pace this year and next, and stabilise in 2026, potentially easing concerns over the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Investors also expect fresh stimulus measures to be unveiled at the Central Economic Work Conference next month.

This apropos three letters to the Editor headlined ‘Elon Musk aimed at Bending the Universe’ carried by the newspaper on Friday, Saturday and yesterday. In my view,

Musk’s ultimate goal is to colonize Mars. His vision includes building up to 1,000 Starships a year to transport people between Earth and the red planet. As in the past, this ambitious idea is not without controversy. Many conventional scientists caution that it will require years of further research and development, as the technologies necessary to sustain life on Mars do not yet exist.

However, just as Neil Armstrong and others once doubted the feasibility of commercial space exploration, these conventional scientists may not be able to deter Elon Musk from venturing into this arena.

Musk has a track record of defying skepticism, as demonstrated when many believed rockets could not and would not land back on their launch pads. Musk proved them wrong by stating that if a rocket can ascend along a specific trajectory, it can also descend along the same path to return to its launcher. Once again, Musk’s determination may turn the improbable into reality.

The Democrats like Barrack Obama and Joe Biden had had assumed Elon Musk a biggest adversary and did whatever they could to deter him for visualizing his wild dreams.

But they could not dampened his innovation and creativity and now with Donald Trump in power, and Musk himself in the driving seat to cut down on bureaucracy and eliminate over-regulations which according to him stifle entrepreneurship, scuttle creativity and slow down economic growth, the world should keep its figure cross and await for many more mind boggling innovations by many innovators like Elon Musk, which might multiply by the enabling environment under Donald Trump.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

Six years after their imposition, the Section 301 tariffs under the US Trade Act of 1974 continue to significantly impact Chinese imports, especially in the textiles and apparel sectors. Initially implemented in 2018, these tariffs targeted 5,745 products, with rates increasing to 25 percent and an additional 10 percent tariff. The tariffs were aimed at addressing intellectual property theft and other unfair trade practices, as outlined by the US.

In addition to the strain on the Chinese textile and apparel industries through these tariffs, the world has witnessed a shift in global textile supply chains, with US GSP textile beneficiaries and alternative sourcing destinations stepping in to fill the void.

A 15 percent tariff was applied to imports of apparel, on top of the WTO’s Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs, which in 2018 averaged 14.4 percent for knitted apparel (HS Chapter 61) and 10.4 percent for woven apparel (HS Chapter 62). These tariffs were compounded by additional duties and anti-dumping measures aimed at specific Chinese companies and apparel products.

This evolving scenario prompted discussions on which countries were poised to benefit from China’s declining apparel exports to the US. While several contenders were expected, Pakistan emerged as one of the potential South Asian players that could benefit.

Trade war’s toll on China’s textile exports to the US

Later in 2019, the US enacted the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) to counter alleged forced labor practices in China. Combined with tariffs and legislative measures, Chinese exports to the US have suffered significant losses: USD 5.4 billion in knitted garments (Figure 1a), USD 5.6 billion in woven garments (Figure 1b), and USD 425 million in home textiles (Figure 1c).

Despite extremely high tariffs, China continued to export its low-cost articles, such as blankets, bed linen, toilet linen, kitchen linen, and other made-up articles under the home textiles category, with a noticeable shift towards tariff lines with comparatively lower duties.

‘China plus one’

Simultaneously, China’s manufacturing landscape underwent a significant transformation, driven by rising wages, stricter environmental regulations, and the adoption of digital technologies. Many Chinese companies began relocating operations to overseas destinations or shifting production to China’s western inland regions as part of the “China plus one” strategy, aimed at diversifying supply chains and reducing dependence on China.

This shift spurred discussions about alternative manufacturing hubs for labor-intensive Chinese textile businesses, with Pakistan emerging as a potential candidate. However, the relocation of Chinese manufacturing to Pakistan was impeded by security concerns, a challenge that still remains unresolved.

One country’s loss is another country’s gain

Trade wars inevitably create distortions for some players while offering opportunities to others. For countries in South Asia, the US-China trade war was a significant opportunity.

As the largest single buyer of textiles and apparel, the US remains a lucrative market for countries like Pakistan and Bangladesh, which rely heavily on textile and apparel exports.

However, much of the opportunity was seized by Vietnam, Cambodia, and Mexico. Between 2018 and 2023, China’s value-added textile exports to the US declined by USD 11.5 billion, but South Asia collectively exported only USD 3.6 billion to the US, missing an estimated USD 8 billion potential (Figure 2).

Southeast Asian countries, particularly Vietnam and Cambodia, increased exports to the US by USD 3.1 billion, while Mexico benefitted significantly from the shift, aided by zero tariffs under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) effective from 2020.

However, during this period, Pakistan achieved a notable Average Annual Growth Rate (AAGR) in US imports of value-added textiles. The country led in AAGR for woven garments, with Bangladesh closely competing in knitted garments and India in the market for made-up articles (Figure 3a).

A deeper analysis of South Asia’s potential to seize these opportunities lies in examining its share of the US import basket. While China’s share sharply declined, South Asian economies saw minimal or stagnant growth in their share of US imports of value-added textiles, highlighting a missed opportunity to capitalize on China’s diminishing export footprint (Figure 3b).

Although the USD 8 billion gap is substantial, reclaiming the lost share of China’s textile exports to the US demands a more strategic approach from countries like Pakistan.

The role of the US GSP in capturing China’s lost exports to the US

All these economies, including Pakistan, once benefited from the US GSP programme before losing their statuses: Pakistan’s expired in 2020, Bangladesh’s was terminated in 2013 following the Rana Plaza incident, and India’s was revoked in 2019 due to insufficient market access.

However, the benefits for Pakistan were minimal, with only 1.5% of its value-added textile exports to the US (USD 42 million out of USD 2.9 billion in 2020) qualifying for GSP preferences.

India and Bangladesh similarly experienced limited gains, with just 0.46% and 0.7% of their value-added textile exports benefiting under GSP before their statuses were revoked. In contrast, ASEAN countries effectively took advantage of US trade realignments. In 2023, ASEAN exports worth USD 11.7 billion benefited from GSP status, solidifying their position as key suppliers to the US market.

South Asia’s minimal reliance on the US GSP programme is one of the many reasons for not fully leveraging the US-China trade war. Facing tariffs of up to 16 percent, Pakistan’s value-added textile exports could have greatly benefited from improved access to the US market, potentially capturing a larger share of US imports.

Potential versus capacity

Two major developments have reshaped global trade in value-added textiles: China’s shift away from textiles to focus on other value chains and the relocation of its textile industries due to US tariffs.

Vietnam, with its competitive labor costs, extensive trade agreements, and growing manufacturing capabilities, has long attracted Chinese investments in sectors like furniture and textiles. However, it has yet to emerge as a global manufacturing hub capable of replacing China.

When it comes to Pakistan, in 2023, the US imported USD 144.4 million worth of knitted garments from Pakistan under China’s top tariff lines in the US import basket, compared to USD 3 billion from China for the same tariff lines.

Similarly, US imports of woven garments from Pakistan totaled USD 315.5 million, significantly lower than the USD 2.6 billion sourced from China. For made-up articles, Pakistan exported USD 473.5 million to the US, significantly less than the USD 6.3 billion supplied by China on the same tariff lines(see Figures 1a, 1b, and 1c).

Pakistan struggles to export textiles exceeding USD 100 million per tariff line in categories where China’s exports run into billions.

A major challenge is the inadequate pricing of inputs within Pakistan, which undermines the competitiveness of its exports, making them even less competitive in the face of high duties.

While these figures demonstrate Pakistan’s ability to export and compete in international markets to some extent, they also reveal the structural barriers hindering its full potential.With an estimated annual textile manufacturing capacity of USD 25 billion.

Pakistan’s textile exports peaked at USD 19 billion in 2022, the best year for Pakistan’s trade economy. The USD 6 billion gap from its capacity remains, which Pakistan can unlock by addressing structural inefficiencies and embracing market-driven pricing across the value chain.

A ‘Trump Card’ for Pakistan’s exports?

Structural inefficiencies and the absence of market-driven pricing present challenges, while a downturn in global demand could worsen the situation. With Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency, tariffs are set to become a key component of his economic agenda.

Trump argues these tariffs will not burden the US economy but shift costs to other countries, particularly China and those closely associated with it.

While China has endured much of the impact, such tariffs could severely affect economies like Pakistan, where exports are already under pressure. Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is considering a flat 20 percent tariff on all imports as part of its broader trade strategy.

The US remains Pakistan’s largest trading partner, contributing a significant trade surplus. In 2024, Pakistan’s exports to the US were of USD 5.4 billion, approximately 20 percent of its total exports, with textiles and apparel making up more than 70 percent of that figure.

A 20 percent tariff could disrupt Pakistan’s manufacturing sector, especially its textile and apparel industries, which are central to its export economy. The timing is particularly challenging as Pakistani businesses are also grappling with high taxes and an energy crisis.

However, there is a potential silver lining. Trump’s tariff policy primarily targets economies benefiting from China’s relocated production, so countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Mexico, and Canada are at greater risk. Pakistan, which does not fall into this category, may avoid these tariffs.

Bangladesh’s new government, focused on strengthening trade ties with both China and the US, may face foreign policy dilemmas. Alternatively, Trump’s plans to renegotiate the USMCA could completely shift attention away from South Asia.

For Pakistan, effective economic diplomacy is essential to expanding its export footprint in the US market. The pressing question remains: how should Pakistan strategize its diplomacy to strengthen its trade position amid these global shifts?

Charting a way forward

To secure its position in the US market, Pakistan must actively pursue the revival of GSP status by negotiating its renewal and advocating for revised tariff lines to secure duty-free or reduced-duty access. Such access is essential in the ongoing tariff war.

Pakistan’s products in the US market primarily cater to low- to middle-income groups.

Additional tariffs would make Pakistani products less competitive, ultimately reducing demand for Pakistani apparel in the US With that, Pakistan is the second-largest destination for US long-staple raw cotton after China.

In 2023, Pakistan imported over USD 379 million worth of U.S. cotton, primarily for clothing and blanket manufacturing. Cotton imports were even higher in 2022, reaching USD 615 million.

As domestic cotton production fails to meet demand, the US remains a crucial supplier, with its raw cotton entering Pakistan duty-free. This contrasts sharply with the high tariffs, up to 16%imposed on Pakistan’s value-added textiles exported to the U.S.

With declining domestic crop production, Pakistan’s reliance on imported cotton is expected to grow. Under the Caribbean Basin Trade Partnership Act (CBTPA), apparel assembled in the Caribbean and Central America using US-origin fabrics, yarns, and threads enters the US duty-free.

However, raw cotton falls outside the CBTPA’s scope and is governed by general trade agreements.

The window of opportunity created by the US-China trade war may be shutting, and it is uncertain whether the US will continue favoring South Asian textile and apparel industries. However, Pakistan still has room to maneuver. Economic diplomacy will be critical in advocating for Pakistan’s interests in the US market. The real challenge lies in addressing internal structural issues that hinder export growth, which deserves immediate attention from the decision-makers.

To begin with, it is extremely urgent for Pakistani authorities to negotiate a trade agreement with the US to secure duty-free or reduced-duty access for value-added textiles assembled in Pakistan using US-origin cotton, before the opportunity slips through the cracks again.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

The secret of Mr Trump’s admiration for Elon Musk became clear to this writer during an interview where Trump narrated a fascinating story about a space rocket.

Trump described how, after traveling back to Earth, instead of landing in a desert, sea, lake, or some other desolate place, the rocket executed a controlled descent.

Swinging and turning wildly with a large flame roaring from its exhaust, it slowed down and gently positioned itself to land precisely on the same launcher from which it was fired.

Astonished by this incredible feat of science, human ingenuity, and innovation, Trump said he immediately called Elon Musk to confirm: “Was it you?” When Musk replied affirmatively, Trump remarked, “No country on the face of the Earth could do it, not even the USA, but you did it.”

This inspired this writer to dig deeper into Elon Musk’s wild dreams of space exploration and peek into his visionary mind. After some research, I was left reeling with amazement. Musk’s mind, it seems, is one that might have been born many years into the future.

In one of his interviews, Musk mentioned the possibility of mankind traveling at twice the speed of light—not by burning any fuel but by bending time and space. He explained that by “squeezing space,” which behaves like a giant plastic sheet, we could bring distant areas of the universe closer to us without traveling any actual distance.

This radical idea is rooted in Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity. Musk referred to the concept of creating a “warp bubble” that contracts space in front of a spacecraft and expands it behind, effectively allowing the craft to traverse vast distances without exceeding the speed of light within its local frame.

This concept, known as the Alcubierre Drive, was proposed by physicist Miguel Alcubierre in 1994.

It suggests that by warping space time, a spacecraft could achieve effective Faster-Than-Light (FTL) travel without violating the laws of physics.

Elon Musk is captivated by this theoretically possible feat and is actively working on advanced propulsion technologies and leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to solve complex challenges. Reports suggest that Musk has created an AI supercomputer, known as “Colossus,” located in Memphis, Tennessee.

It is equipped with 100,000 of the latest Nvidia GPUs, liquid-cooled with massive water systems, and powered by Tesla Megapack batteries. According to Musk, Colossus is not merely a machine but a gateway—designed to fuel “Grok,” an AI model capable of propelling humanity beyond the boundaries of human understanding.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

The right to bear arms was enshrined in the US Constitution in the year 1787. Since then, the citizens have enjoyed unhindered access to fire arms. While Donald Trump was elected with 68.2 million votes, the over 500 million guns owned by the voters also played a crucial role in ensuring the sanctity of the ballot.

After the surrender of the British troops to the ragtag militia led by George Washington, only the losers were disarmed, not the victors of the battle who proudly carried their arms with them after the war of independence was over.

Washington served for two terms of 4 years each (under the present constitution which was framed in 1787 to replace their first attempt The Articles of Confederation) and then went home gracefully.

Since then, elections are held every four years in the first week of November, with transition of power in January of next year. The time is cast and fixed by the constitution.

Delays and postponements are unheard off, not even during world wars. Trump was first elected as the 45th President and now back as 47th. He lost re-election in the year 2020, which resulted in an attack on the Congress where the Senate was in session to endorse the result declared by the Electoral College and confirm the new occupant of the White House. The establishment was blamed for keeping Trump out.

In the year 1934 when Mao Tse Tung started his epic ‘Long March’ it was an armed struggle. In 1949, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) appeared on the world map. His famous saying was heard loud and clear; “Revolution comes through the barrel of the gun”. He completely dismantled the exploitative imperial yoke that had contained the growth of his nation.

Today, PRC has entered the ranks of the economic superpowers of the world, which is challenging the unipolar domination of the United States. Mao ruled with an iron fist. Dissent was crushed.

China did change after he was gone, but his Communist Party remains in power till today. Participation of the people is ensured but without the western electoral democracy. Focus has been on economic development and containment of poverty. The party created an economic miracle that has become the production line of the world.

Trump’s bold campaign carried the day for him. The assassination attempt during an election rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024 was a close call, but he remained unruffled and continued with his efforts to win back the White House. Eight rounds were fired at him, one brushed his ear, barely missing his skull, but he continued with his crusade to bring change to re-build his country. With his victory, tremors are being felt not only in Washington DC but all over the world.

Unfortunately, representative democracy in our times has been trapped by tampering and manipulation of the ballot. In the land of the pure; results of almost all elections have been disputed.

Only the 1970 electoral contest has been claimed as free and fair, but it resulted in the break-up of Jinnah’s Pakistan. When the ballot was overruled, bullets were fired, lives were lost. Brothers pitted against brothers, followed by surrender and prisoners of war. Now, after over half a century, wounds are healing; Jinnah has been recognized as the undisputed leader of the Muslims of India. An honest ballot followed by transition of power could have saved Pakistan, but instead bullets fractured the federation, which resulted in human toll and misery.

Democracy was born in the bazaars of Athens around 525 BC, mainly for the will of the people to prevail. Everyone was heard before the count was started. Majority prevailed, the minority went along. Direct participation ensured compliance.

Together with the population, democracy grew, but new challenges emerged. Representation was adopted, for which the electoral system was introduced. Manipulation became the norm.

Stalin’s famous quote was heard; “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything”. The sanctity of the ballot had been stolen by the individuals who were inducted to protect and streamline it. George Washington allowed his freedom fighters to carry their weapons to defend their freedom, others did not.

The spirit of freedom remains alive till today. In the oldest constitutional democracy of the world, people have the right to bear arms to protect their rights. Periodically the guns are misused/abused which raises voices for control, but then the National Rifle Association (NRA) with its over 5 million members intervenes. In India, despite all the problems, the ballot prevails.

Votes are counted and the integrity of the ballot prevails. Guns have very little say in the electoral process. The oldest and the largest constitutional democracies of the world function differently, but the will of the people is ensured for democracy to survive, where it is denied, it perishes, resulting in conflict and confusion which then spins out of control.

It is back to the basics; people must count and be heard, not herded as was done in Stalin’s Soviet Union, which eventually collapsed under its own inefficiencies. Farce democracy does not work; the message is loud and clear. Democracy follows its own course; it cannot be controlled indefinitely.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

WASHINGTON: Presidentelect Donald Trump said Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had agreed Wednesday to “stop” US-bound migration, a claim she was quick to publicly downplay.

Both sides described the call positively, despite it following a threat by Trump on Monday to slap a 25 percent tariff on Mexico, prompting warnings by the Mexican government of retaliation.

“Just had a wonderful conversation with the new president of Mexico,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.

“She has agreed to stop migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border,” he said, implying a shift in policy.

Sheinbaum responded quickly to Trump’s remarks, insisting that she had explained Mexico’s current “comprehensive strategy” on migration.

“Thanks to this, migrants and caravans are attended to before they reach the border,” she said on X.

“We reiterate that Mexico’s position is not to close borders but to build bridges between government and peoples,” she added.

Sheinbaum, who became Mexico’s first woman president in October, had earlier shared brief details of the conversation alongside a picture of her smiling during a phone call.

The two leaders also discussed “strengthening collaboration on security issues” as well as “the campaign we are conducting in the country to prevent the consumption of fentanyl,” Sheinbaum said.

ISLAMABAD: The government is said to be giving final touches to its strategy for engagements with the new Trump Administration in different fields including defence, trade sectors, health and energy, well-informed sources told Business Recorder.

In this regard, an inter-ministerial meeting was held under the chairmanship of Secretary Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) in which different options of engagement with the new Administration came under discussion, the sources added.

During the IMM, representatives from all Ministries were requested to give their feedback/updates on the status of pending issues with the US as well as any new proposals for the new US government in writing.

Pakistan ‘natural partner’, says Ahsan amid hope of revitalising ties with Trump-led US admin

According to sources, MoFA has asked all the concerned Ministries, as tasked by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), to prepare a comprehensive presentation on engagement with the new Trump Administration. Feedback on pending issues, as well as fresh proposals in related fields from concerned Ministries/Organi-sations is, therefore, urgently required for preparation of the same.

MoFA asked the concerned Ministries/Organi-sations, ie, Ministry of Defence, Ministry of National Food Security & Research, Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordina-tion, Economic Affairs Division, Ministry of Federal Education and Special Training, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of National Health, Regulation & Coordination, Petroleum Division, Power Division, Ministry of Interior, Special Investment Facilitation Council, etc, to send relevant materials (in soft and hard form) urgently to the focal person.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Ambassador in Washington who is interacting with those nominated has also held a meeting with the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Resources, Geoffery Pyatt. During the meeting, the US side proposed the timeframe of mid-January for the third round of Energy Security Dialogue between Pakistan and the United States. The U.S. side has requested views of Pakistan in this regard.

PM Shehbaz congratulates Donald Trump on ‘historic’ election victory

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs noted that the second round of Energy Security Dialogue was held on March 15, 2023 in Islamabad. It was chaired by former Federal Minister for Energy, Khurram Dastgir Khan, and Assistant Secretary of State, Pyatt. A Joint Statement was issued after the Dialogue.

On proposed timings of the dialogue, the Mission stated that a mid-January scheduling, prior to January 20 (inauguration of the new President), would mean holding of the Dialogue in the lame-duck period of the current US Administration.

There is a possibility that the new Trump Administration may not take ownership of any understanding. However, it could provide an opportunity to lock in commitments/understan-dings which could be carried forward with the incoming Administration.

The Mission has also highlighted the fact that the suggested timeframe indicates the intent of the outgoing Administration, especially Assistant Secretary of State Pyatt, to conduct the Dialogue before the new President takes oath. However, in case the Dialogue is held after January 20, it would be first high-level engagement with the new US Administration and could provide impetus to scheduling of other bilateral consultation mechanisms.

The Mission further contended that dialogue would provide an opportunity to discuss Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline and use of renewable energy products, including hydropower projects, investments in improving Pakistan’s power transmission/distribution network, LNG terminals, and increased private-sector financing by International Development Finance Corporation.

The Mission has requested for an early feedback on possible scheduling in consultation with the Ministry of Energy Power Division and Petroleum Division.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

Brand valuations are upward bound through the stratosphere in the realm of dollar 150 billion, 200 billion, 350 billion. Assets that expensive need protection.

Currently, the most well protected human assets are Vladimir Putin, and MBS. Donald Trump has just been added to the list. Not because he’s the President- elect. His recent comments about dismantling the ‘deep’ state must have annoyed the ‘deep’ state. JFK was taken out for expressing such thoughts.

But brands are something else; some brands are more valuable than the hard assets of the corporation (factories, real estate, vehicles, investments, etc.).

Here is the value in US dollars of the 10 top brands as at 1600 hours, 21-11-24. Apple Inc.: 516.6 billion, Microsoft: 340.4 billion, Google: 334.4 billion, Amazon: 308.9 billion, Samsung: 99.4 billion, Walmart: 99.4 billion, TikTok: 4.2 billion, Facebook: 75.7 billion, Deutsche Telecom: 73.3 billion, ICBC: 71.8 billion. These values are estimates based on various methods. Different sources may have slightly different rankings and values. Kantar Group, Interbrand, Brand Finance and Forbes, for example, use subjective analyses. No single metric exists.

With the ownership of such expensive assets, corporates are increasingly concerned about protecting their brands. The ‘Lux’ brands do not enter any market that is not ‘primed and ready’.

In Gujranwala, one can see multiple advertisements for Coke, Pepsi, Bata, but none for Jaguar or Rolls Royce. This city is great for advertising “Murgh Chollay”, but not for high end products. If a Pak-origin customer walks into a Bentley car showroom in Dubai, they (the showroom) will not sell the car for the simple reason that the Pakistani market is not ready for service and provision of spares.

Brand owners are always watching the markets. They have extensive reach – internal and external. If a similar brand enters a new market they (brand owners) are collecting evidence and data.

Once I flew to Singapore in 2007 to negotiate with ‘Burger King’ (B.K.) about a franchise for a famous hotelier of Pakistan. At that time B.K. was owned by a private equity group that I know well. The request was declined. Their regional office in Singapore had enough data on a similar fast food operator in Pakistan. Much later, B.K., under new ownership, entered Pakistan.

Crash & Burn: My daughter lives in Vietnam for last 14 years. I have been watching the ‘brand’ growth. The market progressed from low-end brands to mid-tier ones. Now many ‘Lux’ brands are present. The shopping malls are ‘glitzy’, an appropriate setting for high-end brands.

The buyers in the malls and shops look affluent and, above all, extremely disciplined and well-mannered. Nigeria, conversely, is swimming in petro dollars. But big brands are averse to making a big display.

The Nigerian aristocracy prefers to fly abroad for big purchases. Out one of my visits to London, Harrods was closed for one day. A Nigerian delegation was shopping.

Brand management, including protection, is a big management issue. When the Saudi royals were incarcerated in the Four Seasons hotel in Riyadh, the brand owners must have wanted to immediately disconnect their brand from what was happening. In the present age of social media Tictokers, almost everybody is an influencer or would be a brand ambassador. This is a dangerous development for brand managers of the big brands because choosing brand ambassadors (BAs) is a serious business.

Before being chosen as BA, a serious review of analysis is undertaken. Once the candidate has ticked all the boxes, only then can negotiations proceed.

The ultimate BA – of recent times has been Roger Federer. A great tennis player, family man, body honed to perfection, nattily dressed, no embarrassing episodes. No wonder, brands signed him up. Federer’s sponsorship deal with a Japanese clothes retailer for a reported US dollar 100 million for 10 years is worth it.

Federer’s farewell at Wimbledon this year was an amazing brand fest – suit, tie, shirt, watch, shoes, etc., etc. All being promoted by a sporting icon. This week another sporting icon and brand ambassador, Rafael Nadal, has signed off. Rafael, may your sponsorship deals carry on and on.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

This is apropos letters to the Editor by this writer titled ‘Trump’s bureaucracy cuts: a daunting task’ carried by the newspaper in recent days.

I would like to conclude my argument by saying, among other things, that in a hypothetical scenario, if the civil and military bureaucracy is reduced by 77 percent, it would generate savings of approximately USD 815.24 billion, and economic growth would add another $260 billion, the total additional funds available would be USD 1,075.24 billion annually.

If this amount is used to reduce taxes for the common people, it could result in a tax reduction of approximately $3,239 per person annually, significantly easing the financial burden on households across the United States, besides the higher growth rate would amplify the benefits of deregulation and tax cuts, driving economic dynamism, fostering business expansion, and enhancing government revenue through increased overall economic activity.

Though the concept looks great on paper, reducing bureaucracy would promise cost savings, improved efficiency, and enhanced self-governance, its practical implementation most likely would face some significant challenges.

Political resistance from entrenched interests, legislative hurdles, and opposition from the bureaucracy itself could impede progress. Downsizing risks substantial job losses, economic disruption, and potential service gaps in critical public functions, including national security.

Administrative complexities, such as restructuring workflows and maintaining morale among remaining employees, add further difficulties to the task.

The anticipated economic growth from deregulation and tax reductions may not materialize quickly, and regional economies dependent on federal jobs could suffer.

Legal and ethical concerns, including labor lawsuits and equity issues, also pose significant risks. To succeed, such reforms would require a phased, strategic approach, stakeholder engagement, and meticulous planning to avoid unintended consequences and ensure sustainable outcomes.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

NEW YORK: Donald Trump’s transition team is putting together a wide-ranging energy package to roll out within days of his taking office that would approve export permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects and increase oil drilling off the US coast and on federal lands, according to two sources familiar with the plans.

The energy checklist largely reflects promises Trump made on the campaign trail, but the plan to roll out the list as early as day one ensures that oil and gas production will rank alongside immigration as a pillar of Trump’s early agenda.

Trump, a Republican, also plans to repeal some of his Democratic predecessor’s key climate legislation and regulations, such as tax credits for electric vehicles and new clean power plant standards that aim to phase out coal and natural gas, the sources said.

An early priority would be lifting President Joe Biden’s election-year pause on new export permits for LNG and moving swiftly to approve pending permits, the sources said. Trump would also look to expedite drilling permits on federal lands and quickly reopen five-year drilling plans off the US coast to include more lease sales, the sources said.

In a symbolic gesture, Trump would seek to approve the Keystone Pipeline, an issue that was an environmental flashpoint and which was halted after Biden canceled a key permit on his first day in office. But any company looking to build the multibillion-dollar effort to carry Canadian crude oil to the US would need to start from scratch because things like easements have been returned to landowners.

“The American people can bank on President Trump using his executive power on day one to deliver on the promises he made to them on the campaign trail,” Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s transition spokesperson, said in a statement.

Many of the elements in the plan would require time to move through Congress or the nation’s regulatory system. Trump has promised to declare an energy emergency on his first day in office that could test whether he can bypass those barriers to impose some changes on an accelerated schedule.

Trump would also call on Congress to provide new funding so he can replenish the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, established as an emergency crude oil supply and which was depleted under Biden to help manage price spikes caused by the Ukraine crisis and high inflation during the pandemic. Replenishing the reserve would boost short-term oil demand and encourage US production.

Trump is also expected to put pressure on the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based energy watchdog that advises industrialized countries on energy policy. Republicans have criticized the IEA’s focus on policies to reduce emissions. Trump’s advisers have urged him to withhold funding unless the IEA takes a more pro-oil position.

“I have pushed Trump in person and his team generally on pressuring the IEA to return to its core mission of energy security and to pivot away from greenwashing,” said Dan Eberhart, CEO of oilfield service firm Canary.

Biden put a freeze on new LNG export permits in January to study the environmental impacts, in an election-year move aimed at making gains with the party’s green voting blocs.

Without the export permits, developers cannot go ahead with multi-year construction plans for new projects. Projects delayed include Venture Global’s CP2, Commonwealth LNG, and Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles complex, all of which are in Louisiana.

The United States is the world’s top producer of natural gas, and became the No. 1 exporter of LNG in 2022 as Europe looked to America to wean itself off Russia’s vast energy supplies following the invasion of Ukraine.

The Biden administration promised to release the environmental study before Trump assumes the White House on Jan. 20, but it would have no influence on the incoming administration, the sources said.

This is apropos letters to the Editor by this writer titled ‘Trump’s bureaucracy cuts: a daunting task’ carried by the newspaper in recent days.

Like Vivek, Elon Musk is a visionary entrepreneur, engineer, and inventor, known for founding and leading several transformative companies. Born on June 28, 1971, in Pretoria, South Africa, Musk moved to the US to pursue higher education.

He earned degrees in physics and economics from the University of Pennsylvania. Musk co-founded Zip2, an online business directory, and PayPal, a digital payments platform, before venturing into ambitious projects like SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, and The Boring Company. Through these ventures, Musk has revolutionized industries such as space exploration, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and infrastructure, earning a reputation as one of the most influential and innovative leaders of the 21st century.

Elon Musk has consistently called for a drastic reduction in federal bureaucracy, advocating for the elimination of redundant agencies and unnecessary regulations. In a November 2024 interview, he proposed cutting the number of federal agencies from 428 to 99, effectively reducing the government by 77%.

The proposed slicing includes several agencies, including the Department of Education, FBI, ATF, IRS, CDC, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Musk has criticized overlapping responsibilities and entrenched bureaucratic elements, often referred to as the “deep state,” which he believes hinder efficiency and innovation. Comparing excessive regulation to having more referees than players in a game, he emphasizes the need for a streamlined, responsive government that fosters progress.

According to the concept, reducing federal bureaucracy by 70% to 77% can promote self-governance, efficiency, and potential tax reductions.

By decentralizing power to state and local governments, it would foster greater accountability and responsiveness while empowering communities to address their unique needs. Moreover, streamlining operations eliminates redundancies will enhance decision-making agility, and will integrate modern technologies to reduce costs.

Savings from reduced expenditures can lower taxes, address national debt, and boost public investment in critical areas like infrastructure and social welfare. This leaner structure would encourage economic growth, reduce dependence on centralized systems, and builds trust in a fiscally responsible government, benefiting both individuals and the private sector.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

WASHINGTON: Republican US Senator Rand Paul voiced opposition on Sunday to the idea of using the military to carry out mass deportations of people living in the country illegally after President-elect Donald Trump signaled last week that he plans to do so.

"You don't do it with the Army because it's illegal," Paul said on CBS's "Face the Nation" program. "If they send the Army into New York and you have 10,000 troops marching carrying semi-automatic weapons, I think it's a terrible image, and I will oppose that."

A 19th century US law prohibits federal troops from being used in domestic law enforcement except when authorized by Congress.

Paul, at times a maverick within his party, noted that he supports the idea of deporting people living in the United States illegally who have criminal records, but said that law enforcement authorities are better equipped than the military to carry out that role and to heed the US Constitution's Fourth Amendment prohibition on unreasonable searches and seizures. There is a "distrust of putting the Army into our streets" among Americans, Paul said.

Asked if this is a red line for him and whether it would impact his Senate vote to confirm Trump's pick of South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to run the Department of Homeland Security, Paul said, "I will not support and will not vote to use the military in our cities."

Trump's presidential transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump, who built his political profile on opposition to illegal immigration, has vowed to launch the largest deportation effort in US history as soon as he is sworn in on Jan 20.

He appeared to confirm in a social media post on Nov 18 that he would declare a national emergency and use military assets for his plan to deport a record number of immigrants in the United States illegally.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday chose Brooke Rollins,

Paul said agents from the FBI, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the US Customs and Border Protection agency could carry out these deportations.

The senator also questioned the use of the National Guard for deportations, saying it is "less clear" whether it would be legal or illegal to use these forces. The National Guard is a part of the US military that answers to both the president and to state governors.

This is apropos a letter to the Editor by this writer titled “Trump’s bureaucracy cuts: a daunting task’ carried by the newspaper yesterday.

In this writer’s view, the rationale behind this initiative is that the federal bureaucracy has grown disproportionately large, with hefty perks and benefits, while many departments, despite their significant size and employment levels, are either underperforming or have lost sight of their original purpose.

This has led to an unsustainable diversion of government funds to sustain a bloated bureaucracy rather than focusing on essential public services. The composition of the team leading this significant reform effort is noteworthy.

Both Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy come from private-sector backgrounds and have no prior experience in government bureaucracy. However, as highly successful corporate entrepreneurs, they bring a proven track record of building organizations from scratch and transforming them into success stories.

For instance, Vivek Ramaswamy, born in Cincinnati, Ohio, to Indian immigrant parents, is a biotech entrepreneur and a prominent Republican figure.

A Harvard graduate in biology and a Yale Law School alumnus, he founded Roivant Sciences in 2014, spearheading groundbreaking pharmaceutical ventures. Ramaswamy gained national prominence through his criticism of “woke” corporate culture, as outlined in his 2021 book Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Came.

Recognized for his conservative principles and innovative thinking, he was appointed by Trump to co-lead DOGE. His vision includes reducing the federal workforce by up to 75%, abolishing redundant agencies, and implementing eight-year term limits for unelected federal employees to prevent the entrenchment of power.

He supports rescinding Executive Order 11246 to shift to a merit-based system and advocates utilizing Schedule F to streamline the removal of “deep-state” actors. These reforms aim to streamline government operations, reduce costs, and ensure a more responsive and meritocratic system.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

The stunning results of the USA elections surprised both Democrats and Republicans alike. Trump’s unprecedented victory was accompanied by Republican wins in the US Senate and House of Representatives. Before the 2024 elections, Democrats controlled the Senate with 51 seats to Republicans’ 49, while Republicans held a narrow majority in the House with 220 seats to Democrats’ 212.

After the elections, Republicans gained control of the Senate with 53 seats, and in the House, they retained their majority with 220 seats to Democrats’ 213, with 2 races undecided. This outcome resulted in unified Republican control of both chambers of Congress.

This has emboldened President-elect Donald J. Trump to undertake one of the boldest policy and administrative decisions in the US history, which could be a potential game changer. Trump has established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), to streamline federal operations by identifying wasteful spending, reducing regulatory burdens, and restructuring or potentially abolishing certain agencies to enhance government efficiency.

He is poised to substantially reduce the size of the U.S. civilian and military bureaucracy, which, according to the strategic reform team led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has grown excessively large. They argue that the bureaucracy has become a de facto “fourth branch” of government, assuming overriding control over decision-making processes and diminishing the power of the democratically elected political leadership.

Qamar Bashir

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

This is apropos three letters to the Editor titled “Unpacking misconceptions about Trump” carried by the newspaper on Wednesday, Thursday and yesterday.

To my surprise, during one of his interactions with college students, Trump asked them to take an oath to avoid drugs, refrain from smoking, and consume alcohol in moderation.

He shared that he had followed the advice of his elder brother, who struggled with alcoholism, and as a result, he never smoked, drank, or used drugs in his entire life. This message aligns with the values many of us aspire to uphold and wish for the current and future generations to embrace.

On the subject of Afghan women wearing the veil, Trump was remarkably outspoken, expressing views that many might not have expected. He pointed out that in Western societies, women who choose to wear the hijab or veil often defend it as their fundamental right, citing centuries of tradition.

However, when Afghan women or their society embrace the veil, they are met with criticism from the same Western observers. Trump argued that if Afghan women or their society prefer the hijab or veil, it is their choice, and others have no business interfering in their cultural or personal decisions. After all, Trump is not as unhinged as many of us thought.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

NEW YORK: A New York judge on Friday granted Donald Trump permission to seek dismissal of his hush money criminal case, in which he was found guilty earlier this year, in light of his victory in the November 5 US presidential election.

Trump, 78, had been scheduled to be sentenced on November 26. But prosecutors with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office earlier this week asked New York State Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan to consider deferring all proceedings in the case until after Trump finishes his four-year presidential term that begins on January 20.

Lawyers for Trump, a Republican, have argued that the case must be dismissed because having it loom over him while he was president would cause what they called “unconstitutional impediments” to his ability to govern.

New York judge pauses proceedings in Trump hush money case

Bragg’s office said they would argue against dismissal, but agreed Trump deserved time to make his case through written motions.

Merchan on Friday set a December 2 deadline for Trump to file his motion to dismiss, and gave prosecutors until December 9 to respond.

This is apropos three letters to the Editor titled “Failure of Democrats and victory of Trump” from this writer carried by the newspaper on Saturday, Sunday and yesterday.

Though these sentiments gathered from primary surveys and conversations across more than 20 cities and counties in Michigan may not fully capture the feelings of people in other states, on a broader scale, issues such as a struggling economy, high unemployment rates, rising inflation, and abortion rights formed a formidable charge against the current Biden Administration.

This dissatisfaction created a strong advantage for Trump, who went on to secure one of his most significant victories, while the Democrats faced one of their most humiliating defeats. Indeed, the poor performance of the Biden Administration, with Kamala Harris as Vice President, became one of the biggest assets for Trump’s campaign.

Despite the government’s substantial spending on canvassers nationwide to campaign for Harris, coupled with government-backed surveys indicating support for Harris and Democratic Senators and Congress members, these efforts ultimately failed to sway voters.

Reports highlighting low unemployment rates and economic recovery couldn’t disguise the harsh realities for many Americans facing job losses, reduced economic activity, high inflation, and soaring commodity prices.

Voters, unconvinced by what they perceived as exaggerated claims of progress, responded by overwhelmingly voting Kamala Harris and the Democrats out of office, instead electing Donald Trump. However, in their hearts, many voters likely did not view Trump as the ideal choice but felt compelled to vote for him in the absence of a better alternative.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

LIMA: With Donald Trump’s imminent return to the US presidency looming over the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, China’s Xi Jinping said that the region should push for more free trade as Asia-Pacific cooperation faces “rising protectionism”, according to Chinese state media.

“We should dismantle the high wall that divides the flow of trade, investment, technology and services, and maintain a stable and smooth industrial supply chain,” Xi said on Saturday, according to a transcript of the speech published by state television CCTV.

This is apropos a letter to the Editor titled “Failure of Democrats and victory of Trump” from this writer carried by the newspaper yesterday.

Let me add here that there was another black lady, who had a house full of young kids when asked what in her opinion was the biggest problem; she said it was the current government which had made their live miserable. I asked her follow-up question whether she thought that Kamala Harris or Trump would improve the government.

She said that it was Democrats’ government for four years in which Kamala Harris was the Vice President, adding that had she any guts and ability she could have helped President Biden take measures to improve the economy and provide jobs to the jobless but she could not do it. How could she now improve the economy when she had already consumed all her ideas during the last four years.

There were many young Asians who were interviews and asked the same questions. They provided the cogent same reply that during this government most of the earning hands were out of jobs. They all were of the view that they would support Trump “not because we love him but because failure of the current administration to deliver on economic and employment front”.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

Being in the field a month prior to the elections, going door to door and meeting a diverse range of people—from rich to poor, from White to Black, and including Asian, African, and other communities—was an experience like no other.

Each of these individuals was preparing to choose the upcoming leader of the most powerful nation on Earth, a person who would hold intrinsic and potentially global influence over American lives and those in other countries.

This leader would decide which conflicts to continue, which wars to end, and where new battlegrounds might emerge, even deciding, at times, who might face ruthless elimination. Through these intimate connections with people on streets, in homes, and in their communities, four primary issues emerged without question.

The most pressing concern were jobs and the economy, followed closely by inflation, then women’s rights, with many others expressing a general sense that “everything needs to change, stop, and reset.”

Some people, upon finding an attentive ear, were moved to tears as they shared their struggles. One woman in her 40s, living in a relatively well-maintained home within a middle-class neighborhood in Detroit, Michigan—a key swing state—pointed to a shipping container filled with her household belongings when asked about the biggest issue in her life.

She explained that she had lived in that house for 28 years. It was where she had built her family, investing her heart and soul into making it a beautiful home. However, after both she and her husband lost their jobs several months ago, they depleted all their savings and finally decided to leave in search of work in another state, uncertain but hopeful it might offer better job opportunities. As she recounted her story, she nearly broke down in tears.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

BERLIN: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview published Friday that Donald Trump privately held “more nuanced” positions on Ukraine, days after he spoke with the president-elect of the United States by phone.

Trump’s reelection in last week’s US presidential vote has raised concerns he could withdraw Washington’s significant support for Ukraine once back in the White House.

On the campaign trail, the Republican claimed he could end the fighting within hours and that he would talk directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Scholz, who spoke with Trump by phone on Sunday, told the German Sueddeutsche Zeitung daily his call with the president-elect was “perhaps surprisingly, a very detailed and good conversation”.

The two discussed the situation in Ukraine “for a while”, according to Scholz, as the 1,000-day mark of Russia’s full-scale invasion fast approaches.

Trump, Scholz agree to work towards ‘return to peace in Europe’

Without giving many details, Scholz said he got the impression Trump “has a more nuanced position than is often assumed”.

Asked by the paper whether Trump would make a deal over the head of the Ukrainians, Scholz said Trump gave “no indication” that he would.

Germany, for its part, would not accept a “peace by diktat”, Scholz said.

Separately on Friday, Scholz spoke by phone with Putin, the first call between the two leaders since December 2022.

Scholz urged Putin to end the war and enter negotiations with Ukraine for a “just and lasting peace”.

In the newspaper interview, Scholz stressed that Putin “did not succeed in conquering the entire country”.

“NATO has gained two additional members, Finland and Sweden, and is stronger than ever,” Scholz said.

“Ukraine has become a strong nation with prospects of joining the European Union and a clear orientation towards Western Europe. It is a country with a very strong army.

“We must not underestimate all of this, even if the high number of dead and injured and the incredible destruction in Ukraine are terrible,” Scholz said.

LONDON: Shares in European vaccine makers fell in early trade on Friday after US President-elect Donald Trump said he had selected Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has previously spread misinformation on vaccines, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

Vaccine sceptic Kennedy has been criticised for making false medical claims, including that vaccines are linked to autism.

At 0926 GMT, shares in Britain’s GSK, AstraZeneca and France’s Sanofi were down between 2.1%-2.7%.

Sartorius, which manufactures glass vials, fell 4.6%. Bavarian Nordic, which makes a vaccine for mpox, was down almost 17%, also hurt by third quarter results, and German-listed shares of BioNtech, which also has a US listing, were down 9.5%.

“We are not surprised the sector has been under pressure on the potential for RFK Jr. having oversight of the various agencies within HHS (including the FDA, the CDC, NIH, and Medicare/Medicaid) given his previous stated views on the industry,” JP Morgan analysts said in a note.

Trump fills out cabinet as divisive picks shock Washington

Though, they added, “It is difficult to evaluate the exact impact this appointment could have until we have more information on specific policy proposals and priorities of the incoming administration on healthcare and the drug industry,”.

The healthcare sector was the worst performer in early trading, down nearly 2% at its lowest since April, compared with a 0.4% drop in the STOXX 600.

DUBAI: Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Thursday as investors assessed the monetary policy and inflation outlook in the world’s largest economy.

Traders responded to a US inflation print that was in line with expectations by ramping up bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, though there was less certainty on what would happen after that given Donald Trump’s return to office.

The Fed’s decisions have a significant impact on the region’s monetary policy, as most currencies there are pegged to the US dollar.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index declined 1.2%, weighed down by a 0.4% fall in aluminium products manufacturer Al Taiseer Group. Saudi Telecom Company (STC) dropped 2.2%.

NEW YORK: The US dollar extended its recent advance against major peers on Thursday, trading at a one-year high and headed for a fifth straight session of gains, propelled by market expectations since Donald Trump clinched a dramatic return to the White House.

The greenback climbed above 156 yen for the first time since July, while the euro slumped to its weakest since November 2023 and was flat at $1.0566. Sterling hit its lowest on the dollar in four months and was last at $1.2697.

Markets anticipate that the incoming Trump administration will impose trade tariffs and tighten immigration as well as deepen the deficit, measures deemed to be inflationary. The President-elect’s Republican Party will control both houses of Congress when he takes office in January, Edison Research projected on Wednesday, giving him wide powers to push his agenda.

“The price action that we’ve had is expected given the election outcome and the logic behind it is built on expectations rather than actualities: expectations of fiscal stimulus, tariffs and deregulation,” said Daragh Maher, head of FX strategy, Americas at HSBC in New York.

“We’ve been in the dollar bullish camp so this seats neatly with our narrative but clearly there’s been a big repricing.” US producer prices picked up in October, the Labor Department reported on Thursday, a day after data showed that consumer inflation had barely budged last month. The data did not change views the Federal Reserve would deliver a third interest rate cut next month.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six top counterparts including the euro and yen, was up 0.11% at 106.58, after having reached as high as 107.07, its highest since early November 2023.

Bitcoin pulled back from a record high of $93,480 overnight and was last up 0.42% to $89,008. Trump has vowed to make the United States “the crypto capital of the planet.” Ethereum declined 2.23% to $3,084.30.

WASHINGTON: Donald Trump announced firebrand ex-lawmaker Matt Gaetz as his pick for attorney general Wednesday, naming a fierce defender who would be well-placed to make good on the president-elect’s threats of revenge against political foes.

“Few issues in America are more important than ending the partisan Weaponization of our Justice System,” Trump posted on social media. “Matt will end Weaponized Government… and restore Americans’ badly-shattered Faith and Confidence in the Justice Department.”

Gaetz, a Floridian and a US congressman since 2017, is among Trump’s most controversial nominations as he looks to fill out his cabinet after victory against Democrat Kamala Harris in last week’s presidential election.

Gaetz resigned from his seat in the House of Representatives hours after Trump’s bombshell announcement on Wednesday.

Trump has called for retribution against many perceived political foes whom he baselessly accuses of wielding the might of the Justice Department against him in politically motivated prosecutions.

Democrats fear that Gaetz, 42, will help him weaponize the department to launch exactly those types of “show trial” prosecutions.

As attorney general, Gaetz would drive all aspects of the work of the Justice Department, which for years has carried out an investigation into sex trafficking and obstruction of justice allegations involving him.

Gaetz, who denies all wrongdoing, was told last year that there would be no charges against him, but he remains the subject of a House ethics investigation.

Police began looking at Gaetz as they were investigating his friend, former tax collector Joel Greenberg, who was sentenced in 2022 to a prison term of 11 years after admitting to sex trafficking a minor and other charges.

Trump’s team drawing up list of Pentagon officers to fire, sources say

In September, Gaetz said in a statement he would no longer help congressional investigators, accusing them of leading a “political payback exercise” and calling the probe “uncomfortably nosy.”

Republican and Democratic senators immediately voiced doubts that Gaetz’s nomination would survive the confirmation process, which can involve intense questioning during difficult, fraught hearings.

Gaetz will likely only be able to lose three Republicans and still get the green light from the Senate.

CNN, citing unnamed sources reported that House Republicans were meeting behind closed doors when news of Gaetz’s nomination emerged – prompting “an audible gasp from the members in the room.”

Republican Iowa Senator Joni Ernst said Gaetz would have “his work cut out for him,” according to Scripps News, which also reported that the party’s Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski said: “Do you think he’s a serious candidate? Not as far as I’m concerned.”

A third senator from the party’s political middle, Susan Collins, told reporters she was “shocked” by the announcement.

“That shows why the advice and consent process is so important, and I’m sure that there will be a lot of questions raised at his hearing.”

WASHINGTON: Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team are drawing up a list of military officers to be fired, potentially to include the Joint Chiefs of Staff, two sources said, in what would be an unprecedented shakeup at the Pentagon.

The planning for the firings is at an early stage after Trump’s Nov. 5 election victory and could change as Trump’s administration takes shape, said the sources, who are familiar with the Trump transition and requested anonymity to speak candidly about the plans.

One of the sources questioned the feasibility of a mass firing at the Pentagon.

It was also unclear if Trump himself would endorse the plan, although in the past he has railed extensively against defence leaders who have criticized him. Trump has also spoken during the campaign of firing “woke” generals“ and those responsible for the troubled 2021 pullout from Afghanistan.

The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to request for comment.

The second source said the incoming administration would likely focus on U.S. military officers seen as connected to Mark Milley, Trump’s former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Milley was quoted in the book “War” by Bob Woodward, which was published last month, calling Trump “fascist to the core” and Trump’s allies have targeted him for perceived disloyalty to the former president.

“Every single person that was elevated and appointed by Milley will be gone,” the second source said.

“There’s a very detailed list of everybody that was affiliated with Milley. And they will all be gone.”

Pentagon leaker Teixeira faces sentencing, US seeks 17-year prison term

The Joint Chiefs of Staff include the highest ranking officers in the U.S. military and comprise the heads of the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, National Guard and Space Force.

The disclosure of plans to fire senior leaders of the U.S. armed forces comes a day after Trump “picked as his defense secretary Pete Hegseth”, a Fox News commentator and veteran who has signaled a willingness to clean house at the Pentagon.

“The next president of the United States needs to radically overhaul Pentagon senior leadership to make us ready to defend our nation and defeat our enemies. Lots of people need to be fired,” Hegseth said in his 2024 book “The War on Warriors: Behind the Betrayal of the Men Who Keep Us Free.”

It is unclear if Hegseth’s lack of management experience could complicate his Senate confirmation and if a more traditional alternative for the position would carry out such sweeping dismissals.

General brown to be among the first fired

Hegseth has also taken aim at Milley’s successor, Air Force General C.Q. Brown, asking whether he would have gotten the job if he were not Black.

“Was it because of his skin color? Or his skill? We’ll never know, but always doubt - which on its face seems unfair to CQ. But since he has made the race card one of his biggest calling cards, it doesn’t really much matter,” he wrote.

The first source familiar with the transition planning said Brown would be among the many officers to leave.

“The chiefs of the Joint Chiefs and all the vice chiefs will be fired immediately,” the source said, before noting that this was still only early planning.

Some current and former U.S. officials have played down the possibility of such a major shakeup, saying it would be unnecessary and disruptive at a time of global turmoil with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East.

The first source said that it would be difficult bureaucratically to fire and replace a large swath of senior U.S. military officials, suggesting the planning could be bluster and posturing by Trump allies.

But the second source suggested the Trump camp believed the Joint Chiefs of Staff needed to shrink due to perceived bureaucratic over-reach.

Such cuts could be endured in an organization the scale of the U.S. military, the source said.

“These people are not irreplaceable. They are very replaceable. And then the other thing too is there is no shortage of people that will step up,” the source said.

“In World War Two, we were very rapidly appointing people in their 30s or people competent to be generals. And you know what? We won the war.”

WASHINGTON: The Republicans in the US Senate picked John Thune as the chamber’s new leader Wednesday as lawmakers scrambling to prepare for President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration rejected his camp’s favored candidate.

Thune, who already holds a junior leadership position, bested John Cornyn of Texas in a run-off to replace outgoing party leader Mitch McConnell, having already seen off Florida’s Rick Scott, who was seen as most aligned with Trump. “This Republican team is united behind President Trump’s agenda, and our work starts today,” Thune, who represents South Dakota, said in a brief statement.

The Senate — the upper chamber of Congress — jealously guards its independence and institutional authority, and its leadership election was seen as a clue into how much leeway members intend to give Trump.

Cornyn had the longer history in the chamber, while Thune was always seen as most aligned with the traditionalist wing of the party led by McConnell.

Trump insiders had preferred Scott, an ardent loyalist who had promised to do the president-elect’s bidding.

Trump’s allies campaigned aggressively against Thune and Cornyn, pressuring individual senators in a push that has sparked a backlash — but Trump was wary of Scott’s unpopularity and did not publicly endorse him.

Trump threw down a challenge Sunday to any prospective leader, demanding that they allow “recess appointments” — the naming of cabinet members while the Senate is adjourned, bypassing the body’s normal confirmation process.

Thune — along with the others — passed Trump’s loyalty test by replying that he was open to the idea. Scott’s cheerleaders — a group that includes tech billionaire and Trump confidant Elon Musk, and far-right media personality Tucker Carlson — questioned Thune’s commitment to the incoming president, dredging up past opposition.

WASHINGTON: President-elect Donald Trump returned to the White House on Wednesday for the first time since winning last week’s election and sat down for talks about the looming transfer of power with longtime political rival President Joe Biden.

“Welcome, welcome back,” Biden told Trump at the start of their meeting in front of a roaring fireplace.

He promised Trump a smooth transition of power and to do all he could “to make sure you’re accommodated.”

“It’ll be as smooth as it can get,” Trump said.

It was a sharp contrast to the criticism the two men have hurled at each other for years. Their respective teams hold vastly different positions on policies from climate change to Russia to trade.

Biden, 81, has portrayed Trump as a threat to democracy, while Trump, 78, has portrayed Biden as incompetent. Trump made false claims of widespread fraud after losing the 2020 election to Biden.

Triumphant Trump returns to White House to meet Biden

Trump’s motorcade rolled through the heavily guarded White House gate and the former and future Republican president was greeted in the Oval Office by Biden, a Democrat who defeated him in the 2020 election.

Outside on the White House driveway, a massive crowd of journalists gathered in anticipation of the big event.

Trump celebrated his victory earlier in the day with Republicans in the House of Representatives who have a good chance of maintaining control of the chamber as Nov. 5 election results trickle in.

“Isn’t it nice to win? It’s nice to win. It’s always nice to win,” Trump said. “The House did very well.”

Biden, who initially ran against Trump in the 2024 election before stepping aside and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, will welcome the former and future president into the Oval Office, a traditional courtesy by outgoing presidents that Trump, a Republican, did not extend when Biden won in 2020.

Biden urges Americans to ‘bring down temperature’ after Trump win

“He believes in the norms, he believes in our institution, he believes in the peaceful transfer of power,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said of Biden’s decision to invite Trump. She spoke at a briefing for reporters on Tuesday.

Outside the White House gates, signs of the impending power transfer were evident with construction already under way for the stands for VIP guests to sit during the parade that will take place after Trump is inaugurated on Jan. 20.

Although Biden intends to use the meeting to show continuity, the transition itself is partially stalled. Trump’s team, which has already announced some members of the incoming president’s cabinet, has yet to sign agreements that would lead to office space and government equipment as well as access to government officials, facilities and information, according to the White House.

“The Trump-Vance transition lawyers continue to constructively engage with the Biden-Harris Administration lawyers regarding all agreements contemplated by the Presidential Transition Act,” said Brian Vance, a spokesperson for the Trump transition, referring to the law that governs the transfer of power.

Valerie Smith Boyd, director of the Partnership for Public Service’s Center for Presidential Transition, a non-profit that advises incoming administrations, said the agreement underscores that the United States only has one president at a time and includes pledges to sign ethics pacts not to profit off information provided in the transition.

“That needs to be signed for interaction to begin with federal agencies,” she said. “Everything is hinging on that.”

Meetings with federal agencies aside, Biden and Trump will likely discuss a myriad of topics, including foreign policy.

Trump names Elon Musk to role leading government efficiency drive

The outgoing president may urge Trump to back Ukraine in its war with Russia. U.S. support for Kyiv is in question following Trump’s victory over Harris last week, and Trump has pledged to end the war quickly without explaining how.

Jean-Pierre declined to outline discussion points between the two men ahead of their meeting.

The meeting will be the first since the two men’s debate in June. Biden’s poor performance then heightened concerns about his age among fellow Democrats and led to his departure from the race. Harris became the Democratic nominee instead, running a truncated campaign that ended in her loss.

WASHINGTON: Donald Trump will make a triumphant return to the White House to meet President Joe Biden Wednesday, in the Republican’s first visit since departing amid a cloud of scandal nearly four years ago.

Trump’s meeting with Biden comes as he moves swiftly to name his top team, including the world’s richest man Elon Musk as head of a new group aimed at slashing government waste.

Democrat Biden invited his sworn rival to meet in the Oval Office – despite the fact that Trump, who has consistently refused to admit his 2020 election loss, never afforded Biden the same courtesy.

Biden, 81, is expected to urge a smooth transition of power in the encounter at 11:00 am (1600 GMT) – and push for continued support for Ukraine.

“He believes in the norms. He believes in our institutions,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday when asked why Biden was inviting Trump.

“The American people deserve this. They deserve a peaceful transfer of power.”

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Biden would go over top foreign policy issues when he meets Trump – including US support for Kyiv against Russia, which Trump has criticized.

“The president will have the chance to explain to President Trump how he sees things, where they stand, and talk to President Trump about how President Trump is thinking,” Sullivan told CBS on Sunday.

But the meeting may be a bitter pill to swallow for Biden, who branded Trump a threat to democracy and was vying for the presidency against him until a disastrous debate performance forced the Democrat out of the race in July.

House speaker Mike Johnson said Trump may also visit the US Capitol – the building a mob of his supporters stormed in 2021 to try to reverse his election loss – but these plans have not been finalized.

Trump’s party looks set to take both chambers of Congress and consolidate his extraordinary comeback.

Tradition restored

Biden’s Oval Office invitation restores a presidential transition tradition that Trump tore up when he lost the 2020 election, refusing to sit down with Biden or even attend the inauguration.

Then-president Barack Obama had welcomed Trump to the White House when the tycoon won the 2016 election.

But by the time Trump took his last Marine One flight from the White House lawn on January 20, 2021, he had also been repudiated by many in his own party for having encouraged the Capitol riot.

The period of disgrace soon evaporated, however, as Republicans returned to Trump’s side, recognizing his unique electoral power at the head of his right-wing movement.

Trump, 78, enters his second term with a near total grip on his party and the Democrats in disarray.

He has spent the week since the election at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida assembling his top team, as the world watches to see how closely he sticks to his pledges of isolationism, mass deportations and sweeping tariffs.

Trump named Space X, Tesla and X boss Musk, and another stalwart ally, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, to lead a “Department of Government Efficiency (‘DOGE’)” – a tongue-in-cheek reference to an internet meme and cryptocurrency.

In a flurry of announcements, Trump also picked Fox News host and military veteran Pete Hegseth as his incoming defense secretary. Hegseth has been an outspoken opponent of so-called “woke” ideology in the armed forces.

Trump names Elon Musk to role leading government efficiency drive

Trump further named South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem – an ally who famously wrote about shooting her dog because it did not respond to training – as head of the Department of Homeland Security.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio is tipped for secretary of state, US media reported, while Trump has also confirmed Congressman Mike Waltz, a former special forces officer, as his national security advisor.

Both have hawkish views on China but are not considered isolationists, despite Trump’s previous threats to retreat from or cut obligations to alliances like NATO.

US President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday named Elon Musk to a role aimed at creating a more efficient government, handing even more influence to the world’s richest man who donated millions of dollars to helping Trump get elected.

Musk and former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will co-lead a newly created Department of Government Efficiency, an entity Trump indicated will operate outside the confines of government.

Trump said in a statement that Musk and Ramaswamy “will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies.”

Trump said the new department will realize long-held Republican dreams and “provide advice and guidance from outside of government,” signaling the Musk and Ramaswamy roles would be informal, without requiring Senate approval and allowing Musk to remain the head of electric car company Tesla, social media platform X and rocket company SpaceX.

The new department would work with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to “drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach” to government never seen before, Trump said.

The work would conclude by July 4, 2026 - the 250th anniversary of the signing of the Declaration of Independence.

Donald Trump’s vision for world peace

Musk, ranked by Forbes as the richest person in the world, already stood to benefit from Trump’s victory, with the billionaire entrepreneur expected to wield extraordinary influence to help his companies and secure favorable government treatment.

With many links to Washington, Musk gave millions of dollars to support Trump’s presidential campaign and made public appearances with him.

Adding a government portfolio to Musk’s plate could benefit the market value of his companies and favored businesses such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.

“It’s clear that Musk will have a massive role in the Trump White House with his increasing reach clearly across many federal agencies,” equities analyst Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities said in a research note.

“We believe the major benefits for Musk and Tesla far outweigh any negatives as this continues to be a ‘poker move for the ages’ by Musk betting on Trump,” Ives said.

The move was criticized by Public Citizen, a progressive consumer tights NGO that challenged several of Trump’s first-term policies.

“Musk not only knows nothing about government efficiency and regulation, his own businesses have regularly run afoul of the very rules he will be in position to attack in his new ‘czar’ position,” Lisa Gilbert, co-president of Public Citizen, said in a statement. “This is the ultimate corporate corruption.”

Maximum transparency promised

Trump likened the efficiency effort to the Manhattan Project, the US undertaking to build the atomic bomb that helped end World War Two, while Musk promised transparency.

“All actions of the Department of Government Efficiency will be posted online for maximum transparency,” Musk said on X, inviting the public to provide tips.

“We will also have a leaderboard for most insanely dumb spending of your tax dollars. This will be both extremely tragic and extremely entertaining,” Musk said. Musk said at a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden in October that the federal budget could be reduced by “at least” $2 trillion.

Discretionary spending, including defense spending, is estimated to total $1.9 trillion out of $6.75 trillion in total federal outlays for fiscal 2024, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

“Your money is being wasted and the Department of Government Efficiency is going to fix that. We’re going to get the government off you back and out of your pocketbook,” Musk said at the rally.

The acronym of the new department - DOGE - also references the name of the cryptocurrency dogecoin that Musk promotes.

In August Musk and Tesla won the dismissal of a federal lawsuit accusing them of defrauding investors by hyping dogecoin and conducting insider trading, causing billions of dollars of losses.

Donald Trump expected to tap US Senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state, sources say

Dogecoin has more than doubled since Election Day, tracking a surge in cryptocurrency markets on expectations of a softer regulatory ride under a Trump administration.

Shares in Tesla fell on Wall Street ahead of announcement but are up about 30% since the election.

Ramaswamy is the founder of a pharmaceutical company who ran for the Republican presidential nomination against Trump and then threw his support behind the former president after dropping out.

Ramaswamy said the appointment means he is withdrawing from consideration for the pending US Senate appointment in Ohio, where Governor Mike DeWine will appoint a replacement for JD Vance, who will become Trump’s vice president when they are inaugurated on Jan. 20.

KARACHI: Chairman of National Business Group Pakistan, the President of the Pakistan Businessmen and Chairman of the FPCCI Advisory Board, Mian Zahid Hussain has said that the success of Donald Trump in the American elections could change the global scenario.

He said that before the elections, media analysts and think tanks assumed the victory of Kamala Harris was a certainty, which proved wrong. The US election results show that the public is fed up with America’s global role and Biden’s policies on the Middle East and Ukraine, and they don’t want more wars, he said.

Talking to the business community, the veteran business leader said that the US voters prefer Trump’s “America First” policy because of the economic situation and other problems.

He said President Trump will pay more attention to his country than other countries and will not interfere unnecessarily, nor will he play a biased role in any important matter. President Trump said he did not wage war in his previous term and will not do so now, which will be a positive change.

Mian Zahid Hussain said that the former president left many issues for him, including the situation in the Middle East, the tension between Israel and Iran and the uncertainty of global trade. The US is in debt of $35 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every three months. At the moment, social unrest, racial and political divisions, and discontent are growing, which will prove to be a significant challenge for the new president. The effects of his policy on China will also be felt around the world, and it is hoped that he will play a positive role in ending global conflicts and not push the world into new problems.

He said that the overall situation of America and the world will be a big test for President Trump. The new American President will not give importance to Pakistan, will not allow it to import gas or oil from Iran, and will not put any pressure on Pakistan to release any prisoners.

He said that the Ministry of Finance is happy because of the favourable financial situation for the first time in 24 years. However, this happened because of the high profit of the Central Bank, and the record petroleum levy has also played its role.

The central bank posted a historic surplus of Rs2.5 trillion from July to September, partly due to high interest rates.

He added that reports are currently doing the rounds that the IMF has called for a mini-budget to cover the shortfall in revenue as the FBR failed to meet the tax target for the first quarter. He said that there is a need to embrace the digital economy. Suppose the government fails to meet its targets. In that case, the international organization will end its programme, which will cause the government to increase taxes on wage earners and industries.

The situation may worsen as the government is not ready to tax the significant sectors of the economy. The government should investigate why the previous IMF programme ended and how close it brought the country to default. Now, there is no room to repeat this mistake, he warned.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

For the Muslim world, facing both external threats and formidable internal challenges, the outcome of American elections often makes little difference.

Unlike the Islamic world, plagued by deep divisions, internal strifes, and a lack of unity and direction, American politics remains singularly focused on national interests.

Educated and conscious voters in the US prefer debates over substantive issues, expecting accountability and results from their leaders.

America’s interests and global supremacy are paramount, with major decisions thoroughly scrutinized and debated threadbare in Congress. American politics exhibits consistency, cohesion, and a collective resolve—qualities that contribute to its enduring global influence.

While powerful lobbies do wield influence, their impact is generally confined to what aligns with national interests.

The one unwavering constant in American decision-making is a steadfast commitment to its own interest. Thus, a change in leadership—whether Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump—seldom brings major shifts in core policies. While domestic priorities may differ, America’s international stance remains largely unchanged and consistent.

One remarkable aspect of American politics, and a legacy worth emulating, is the respect extended to political adversaries. The winning party does not waste energies, resources and precious time on retribution against opponents, unlike in Pakistan or other countries.

Defeated candidates step aside gracefully, voicing occasional criticisms but ultimately respecting the mandate and democratic process. The incoming president honours the predecessor, with transitions marked by dignity, honour and mutual respect.

Today, five former American presidents enjoy a content and fulfilling post-presidency lives. Jimmy Carter, architect of the Camp David Accords, recently celebrated his 100th birthday with a military flyover in Georgia. George Walter Bush resides in Dallas, Texas, with his family, while Bill Clinton, active in charitable work, lives in New York. Barack Obama, now in Washington, D.C., has also embraced a quiet, rewarding life.

Away from the hustle and bustle of active politics, these former presidents are happy and content with their serene and calm life and provide valuable counsel to their successors.

Free from any allegation of corruption or amassing fortunes and with cherishable memories, they are having fine and peaceful days. Such values should inspire leaders in the Third World to aspire toward similar standards.

In a historic victory, Republican candidate Donald Trump has captured the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. I listened closely to his victory speech in Florida, where he pledged “America First,” vowing to prioritize peace, prevent new wars, and build a “New America.” This “America First” idea and approach is really noble and should be seen in the light of why American citizens deserve their country’s first priority.

The billions of American dollars spent on wars—fuelling death and destruction in Ukraine and Palestine—should instead be redirected to infrastructure, healthcare, and welfare for Americans.

For too long, the hard-earned taxes of Americans have financed wars on foreign soils, spreading death, displacement, and destruction. This phenomenon should come to an end now.

It is time for America to pursue peace and prosperity, not just domestically but globally too. Trump’s anti-war vote, which drew Muslim and Arab voters, along with a broad coalition calling for ceasefires and justice for Palestine, now calls for action. War is a defeat and brings nothing but death, misery, and the destruction of peace.

Let ‘New America’s’ great values speak and assert, ending ongoing deadly wars that are wreaking widespread death, devastation and human catastrophe with American dollars and weapons in Gaza, the Occupied West Bank and Beirut.

Fires raging across Kashmir, Yemen, Sudan, Myanmar, and beyond should be extinguished through America’s efforts, with its resources channelled toward the greater cause of peace.

Let us hope that Donald Trump will fulfil his pledge, steering America towards a new era of peace.

The world watches with anticipation and is too eager to see if he will honour his pledges to avoid further conflicts and bring to an end the fires raging in the world and actively promote peace worldwide. Let us all enthusiastically hope to see great American values of peace and civil liberties under Donald Trump flourish globally.

Qamer Soomro (Shikarpur)

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

Close. Neck to neck. Touch and go. These were the general comments till the last vote was cast on 5th November in the US Presidential Elections 2024. Voters have a knack of out-thinking and out manoeuvring the most scientific of polls and studies. And they did. On 5th November 2024 Kamala Harris was easily trounced by Donald Trump.

Voters have become an elusive entity. The days of blind party loyalty are over. Loyalties in fact have shorter and shorter expiry dates. Opinions form rapidly and change instantly.

The information warfare has invaded minds in a way where thoughts are being challenged and changed constantly. Decisions and choices are affected even while stamping on the vote.

Does that mean that planning is futile? No. Does that mean that polls are a waste of money and time. No. Does that mean that campaigns are a matter of luck? No.

In fact, given the voter changeability these things assume even more importance. They need a more versatile treatment. They require more holistic analysis. Furthermore, they have to be connected to public pulse in more innovative ways than just exploratory studies and exit polls. The voter has changed, the methodology to track their change needs to change.

Having said that, some findings were pretty obvious while some analysis were spot on. Yet, the Harris camp was unable to strategize them.

Trump has always had the knack of connecting with the public more directly and openly. Whether it was the 2016 Twitter downpour or the 2024 “no hold barred” debates, his ability to communicate brashly, boldly, brazenly hit a chord in voters sick and tired of the usual political hope talk.

An early analysis of the campaigns run by the two candidates show some “hit the raw nerve” by Trump Vs “hit the wrong nerve” by Harris messages:

1- It’s the economy stupid — The voter was upset. The voter was disappointed. The voter was angry. Americans have undergone economic pain after decades of being an economy of abundance. First the COVID-19. Then the aftermath. And Now the post aftermath. Very rarely has economic meltdown lasted this long. For the average American the prices of groceries have almost doubled in the last few years.

The price of bread has become a big debating point. Gallup survey had been showing increasing dissatisfaction with the way the country was being run. In the October survey 72% of Americans felt that the economy was going in the wrong direction. In a recent study done by ABC/IPSOS 42% trusted Trump to handle inflation Vs 32% trust level in Biden’s capability.

Trump splashed it extensively. His comparison included a resurging economy post COVID-19 when he lost the election to a more duller and inflationary economy in the Biden term. Simply put this election was not about cabinet table items but kitchen table items.

2- Biden warfare — Another sore point in the voter’s mind was Biden’s foreign policy. The majority of Americans now feel that US involvement in foreign wars is counter-productive. The war opponents include a number of segments. The anti-war segment includes the traditional “cost of war” opponents. They have always believed that the financial and human cost of war is being paid through American taxpayer’s money.

This they felt was a huge cost on the already overburdened economy. The new and growing segment is the younger voter who has been outraged by the atrocities in Palestine. Never has America seen such a rebellion in Universities against American foreign policy.

Harvard, Stanford, Columbia, all saw long and persistent protests by students of all kinds. These visuals and speeches by the young people went viral and put pressure on the Universities to change their policies.

Remember, many politicians are alumni of these universities and are also on their boards. The protests against the Gaza war in New York and other cities were historical. Trump leveraged it. He increased his young adults voter from 35% in 2020 to 42% in this election.

The Biden administration had no strategy to deal with it. Trump on the other hand was loud and clear on his anti-war rhetoric. This enabled him to make inroads into Muslim and black votes. He increased the Black male vote from 12% to 20%.

3- Communication eifferential — Politics is all about messaging. Politics is all about narrative. Politics is all about communication. A speech can change the trend. A word can destroy the whole narrative. A tone can offend the recipient. A gesture can win over the opponents. That is why US presidential elections are the biggest communication project in the political industry.

Hundreds of communication experts, researchers, and writers assess each word and sentence. Many more prepare the Presidents to do mock debates. Despite that there are errors, there are mistakes, that cost an election. Sometimes the message does not resonate, other times the candidate fails to make an impact. The democrats had a candidate dilemma. Biden has been a poor choice. He was old and suffering from dementia.

Age difference between Biden and Trump may be just six years, but presence of mind and communication difference was at least twenty years. Biden’s refusal to step down till he was forced to made a lot of Democrats switch to Trump. Biden’s substitute, Kamala Harris, was no Margaret Thatcher.

Her communication lacked clarity and impact. While she fumbled to answer economy related questions, her counterattack on Trump’s personal character did not resonate with a voter that wanted solutions to their everyday problems.

The digital era, the demographic changes and the distrust in the governments in general have created this disenchantment in voter psychology. Breaking news are not the big news any longer. Sifting the information through Artificial Intelligence has made each voter turn into an analyst, an expert, an anchor. The race for more views on YouTube has created more challenges for candidates standing in an election.

The candidates have to fight against a public instantly capable of millions of memes based on unverified information. The TikTok generation is ticking and creating content every second. While Kamala was mumbling and stumbling in her talks, Trump craftily chose to play on the typical Trump card, i.e., say it on your face, make it outrageous, take the bull by the horns. And, thus, made the voter choose him by saying “At least he is what he is”.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024

WASHINGTON: Donald Trump on Tuesday confirmed his pick of Mike Waltz, a former US special forces officer and a noted foreign policy hawk, for the influential role of national security advisor.

Trump described the Republican congressman as “a nationally recognized leader in national security” and “an expert on the threats posed by China, Russia, Iran, and global terrorism.”

The decorated former Green Beret is set to be one of Trump’s closest advisors in the incoming US administration, as it faces a raft of foreign policy challenges, including the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon.

Waltz has publicly framed China as an “existential” threat to the United States.

He is harshly critical of Russia’s government, while arguing that the current US policy of boosting Ukraine’s war effort needs to end in favor of Trump’s so-far vague promise of a negotiated settlement.

“Just pouring more billions in (to Ukraine) is the definition of insanity at this point,” he has said.

The Florida congressman delivered a speech praising Trump at the Republican National Convention in July in which he called for “peace through America’s strength.”

In a statement, Trump described Waltz as “a strong champion of my America First Foreign Policy agenda.”

NEW YORK: The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s criminal hush money case has put off ruling on whether the president-elect’s conviction should be thrown out on immunity grounds, enabling prosecutors to weigh next steps following his Nov. 5 election victory.

Justice Juan Merchan had been due to rule on Tuesday on Trump’s argument that the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in July that presidents are immune from prosecution involving their official acts meant the New York state case should be dismissed.

Instead, Merchan granted a request by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office to have until Nov. 19 to consider how to approach the case in light of Trump’s looming inauguration in January 2025, email correspondence made public on Tuesday showed.

Trump’s scheduled Nov. 26 sentencing is now widely expected to be postponed.

Trump in May became the first U.S. president - former or sitting - convicted of a crime when a jury in Manhattan found him guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to cover up a potential sex scandal shortly before his first election win in 2016. Trump, who pleaded not guilty, has vowed to appeal the verdict after sentencing.

Trump loses appeal of gag order in hush money criminal case

Prosecutor Matthew Colangelo wrote there were “competing interests” between ensuring a criminal case proceeds as usual and protecting the office of the president.

“The People agree that these are unprecedented circumstances,” Colangelo wrote.

Trump is set to be the first felon inaugurated as president after his victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.

At issue in the six-week Manhattan trial was a $130,000 payment made by Trump’s then-lawyer Michael Cohen to adult film actress Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about a sexual encounter she said she had with him in 2006 but which he has denied.

Trump’s defense lawyer Emil Bove wrote that the case ultimately needed to be dismissed to avoid interfering with Trump’s presidential duties.

“The stay, and dismissal, are necessary to avoid unconstitutional impediments to President Trump’s ability to govern,” Bove wrote.

Trump faced four criminal cases

Trump, 78, is hoping to enter office unencumbered by any of four criminal cases he has faced and which once were thought to have threatened to derail his 2024 candidacy to return to the White House after having served from 2017-2021.

The Republican Trump has portrayed the hush money case brought by Bragg, a Democrat, and the three other state and federal criminal indictments brought in 2023 as politically motivated attempts to harm his presidential campaign. He pleaded not guilty in all four cases.

“It is now abundantly clear that Americans want an immediate end to the weaponization of our justice system,” Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement on Tuesday.

Special Counsel Jack Smith brought two of the cases against Trump, one involving classified documents he kept after leaving office and the other involving his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss. A Florida-based federal judge in July dismissed the documents case. The Justice Department is now evaluating how to wind down Smith’s election-related case.

Trump also faces state criminal charges in Georgia over his bid to reverse his 2020 loss in that state, but the case remains in limbo.

The Supreme Court, in a decision arising from one of Smith’s two cases against Trump, decided that presidents are immune from prosecution involving their official acts and that juries cannot be presented evidence of official acts in trials over personal conduct. It marked the first time that the court recognized any degree of presidential immunity from prosecution.

In making the case for immunity, Trump’s lawyers said the jury that convicted Trump in the hush money case was shown evidence by prosecutors of his social media posts as president and heard testimony from his former aides about conversations that occurred in the White House during his 2017-2021 term.

Bragg’s office countered that the Supreme Court’s ruling has no bearing on the case, which they said concerned “wholly unofficial conduct.” The Supreme Court in its ruling found no immunity for a president’s unofficial acts.

US President-elect Donald Trump has picked South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to serve as the next secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing two sources.

Noem, once seen as a possible running mate for Republican Trump, is currently serving her second four-year term as South Dakota’s governor after a landslide reelection victory in 2022. She rose to national prominence after refusing to impose a statewide mask mandate during the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, Noem had a turbulent few months politically this year.

She faced widespread backlash in April this year when she wrote in a memoir that she shot to death an “untrainable” dog that she “hated” on her family farm, following which some Trump advisers said they believed that Noem’s stock had fallen in the former president’s eyes at the time when she was still a VP contender.

Donald Trump expected to tap US Senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state, sources say

Both Trump’s campaign and Noem’s office did not respond to requests for comments outside regular business hours.

The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for everything from border protection and immigration to disaster response and the U.S. Secret Service.

Trump on Monday appointed Tom Homan as his administration’s incoming “border czar”. Homan said he will prioritize deporting illegal immigrants who pose threats to public safety and national security.

Sources told Reuters on Monday that Trump was expected to tap U.S. Senator Marco Rubio to be his secretary of state.

WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA: Donald Trump is expected to tap US Senator Marco Rubio to be his secretary of state, sources said on Monday, putting the Florida-born politician on track to be the first Latino to serve as America’s top diplomat once the Republican president-elect takes office in January.

Rubio was arguably the most hawkish option on Trump’s shortlist for secretary of state, and he has in past years advocated for a muscular foreign policy with respect to America’s geopolitical foes, including China, Iran and Cuba.

Over the last several years he has softened some of his stances to align more closely with Trump’s views.

The president-elect accuses past US presidents of leading America into costly and futile wars and has pushed for a more restrained foreign policy.

While the famously mercurial Trump could always change his mind at the last minute, he appeared to have settled on his pick as of Monday, according to the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Representatives for Trump and Rubio did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The new administration will confront a world more volatile and dangerous than it was when Trump took office in 2017, with wars raging in Ukraine and the Middle East and China aligning itself more closely with US foes Russia and Iran.

The Ukraine crisis will be high on Rubio’s agenda. Rubio, 53, has said in recent interviews that Ukraine needs to seek a negotiated settlement with Russia rather than focus on regaining all territory that Russia has taken in the last decade.

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He was also one of 15 Republican senators to vote against a $95 billion military aid package for Ukraine, passed in April.

While Rubio was far from the most isolationist option, his likely selection nonetheless underlines a broad shift in Republican foreign policy views under Trump.

Once the party of hawks who advocated military intervention and a muscular foreign policy, most of Trump’s allies now preach restraint, particularly in Europe, where many Republicans complain US allies are not paying their fair share on defense.

“I’m not on Russia’s side — but unfortunately the reality of it is that the way the war in Ukraine is going to end is with a negotiated settlement,” Rubio told NBC in September.

Rubio’s selection holds domestic as well as international significance.

Trump beat Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in the Nov. 5 election in part by winning over large numbers of Latinos, who had voted overwhelmingly for Democrats in previous election cycles but have become an increasingly diverse demographic in a political sense, with more and more Latinos voting Republican.

By selecting Rubio for a key policy role, Trump may help consolidate electoral gains among Latinos and make clear that they have a place at the highest levels of his administration.

If confirmed, Rubio will likely place a much greater importance on Latin America than any previous secretary of state, said Mauricio Claver-Carone, a Rubio ally, former president of the Inter-American Development Bank and a former National Security Council aide on Latin America in the first Trump administration.

“This is the time Latin America will most be on the map in the history of any US presidency. It’s historic. There’s no other way to say it,” said Claver-Carone.

China, Cuba hawk

Rubio was one of three final contenders for Trump’s vice-presidential pick.

The president-elect ultimately chose US Senator JD Vance of Ohio, a hard-right figure who is known for his isolationist foreign policy positions.

Some of Trump’s supporters will be skeptical of his decision to tap Rubio, who until recently held muscular foreign policy positions that contradict those of Trump.

During Trump’s 2017-2021 term, for instance, Rubio co-sponsored legislation that would make it harder for Trump to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, by requiring two thirds of the Senate to ratify withdrawal.

Trump has railed for years against NATO member countries that failed to meet agreed military spending targets and warned during the campaign that he would not only refuse to defend nations “delinquent” on funding but would also encourage Russia “to do whatever the hell they want” to them.

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Rubio is a top China hawk in the Senate, and was sanctioned by Beijing in 2020 over his stance on Hong Kong following democracy protests.

Most notably, Rubio called on the Treasury Department in 2019 to launch a national security review of popular Chinese social media app TikTok’s acquisition of Musically, prompting an investigation and troubled divestment order.

As the top Republican on the Senate Intelligence Committee, he has also kept up the heat on the Biden administration, demanding it block all sales to Huawei earlier this year after the sanctioned Chinese tech company released a new laptop powered by an Intel AI processor chip.

Rubio, whose grandfather fled Cuba in 1962, is also an outspoken opponent of normalizing relations with the Cuban government, a position Trump shares.

The head of the House subcommittee overseeing Latin American affairs, he is also a frequent and fierce critic of Nicolas Maduro’s government in Venezuela.

WASHI