“Since announcing its intention to float, Dubizzle Group has seen strong engagement and interest from investors, reflecting the company’s market leadership, profitability, and growth prospects across the UAE and Saudi Arabia. However, the company has decided to postpone its planned IPO and assess optimal timing for the offering in the future,” the Pakistani-founded company said in a statement.

“Dubizzle Group remains focused on executing its strategy of growing its highly profitable UAE business and expanding its footprint in Saudi Arabia,” it added.

Dubizzle Group is an online marketplace giant whose brands include the property website Bayut and the buying and selling platform dubizzle. It was founded in 2013 by Pakistani brothers Imran and Zeeshan Ali Khan, who also co-founded real estate portal Zameen.com in 2006 and currently own OLX Pakistan. A third brother, Haider, joined the venture in 2014.

Dubizzle Group and all its brands are focused solely on the MENA region.

According to Noor Nabulsi, Head of PR and Strategic Partnerships at Bayut & Dubizzle, “Dubizzle Group’s growth and success have always been driven by strong leadership, sound decisions and a clear vision for the future. The decision to postpone the IPO reflects the same thoughtful approach that has guided us from a small startup to one of the region’s most successful tech companies.”

In a LinkedIn post, she said “we trust our leadership and their commitment to making the best choices for the brand and for all stakeholders. This decision has been made with long-term value and stability in mind.”

“The IPO has been paused until further notice, and as always, we’ll continue focusing on building, innovating and delivering impact across our markets.”

So what do the experts say?

According to Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Principal at online broker Tickmill: “Dubizzle’s decision could have been affected by the risks of a potential valuation gap and underperformance after its trading debut.”

He told Business Recorder that “some recent IPOs saw price corrections after the stock listing and affected sentiment to a certain extent. These precedents created a climate of investor caution, making them potentially unwilling to accept the valuation Dubizzle was likely seeking.”

“This risk aversion was compounded by Dubizzle’s financials. The group reported a consolidated net loss. In a market that has globally pivoted from ‘growth-at-all-costs’ to demanding a clear path to profitability, the company could face hurdles. The decision, made just before the bookbuilding process was to begin, could suggest that feedback from investors was unfavorable,” he added.

Meanwhile, a report in the International Financing Review noted that “fears of weak trading were a key factor in Dubizzle’s cancellation, with investors drawing parallels to 2024’s listing of delivery business Talabat, which has fallen close to 40% from its issue price, and construction business Alec Holdings, which has fallen below issue since listing earlier this month.”

The report quoted a banker on the deal as saying that Dubizzle had a number of specific issues that investors had struggled with, such as a wide discrepancy between its adjusted and reported figures and the desire for investors to value its UAE operations separately from the lossmaking Saudi business.

On October 13, Dubizzle had announced our intention to offer 1,249,526,391 shares, representing 30.34% of total share capital.

The offering represented approximately 30.34% of the company’s total issued share capital, comprising both new shares to be issued by the company and existing shares to be sold by current shareholders.

The final offer price was to be determined through a book building process during the subscription period.

The subscription period was supposed to open on October 23 and expected to close on October 29 for UAE retail investors and professional investors, with pricing and allocation to professional investors expected on October 30.

Admission of the shares to trading on DFM was supposed to take place around November 6.

According to Imran, co-founder & CEO of the group, this IPO marks “an exciting new chapter for Dubizzle Group”.

At the time, Imran, co-founder & CEO of the group, had said that “by welcoming a broader shareholder base, we are positioning the group to accelerate growth, deepen our presence in the markets where we operate, and create long-term value for our users, clients, employees, and shareholders alike.“

The U.S. military “hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants”, Trump wrote on social media.

Kuwait said an Iranian attack hit a power and water desalination plant on Friday, causing material damage to parts of the facility.

Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.5%, dragged down by a 4.9% decline in each of blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and its construction arm Emaar Development.

India’s central bank has approved Emirates NBD Bank’s proposal to acquire a majority stake in RBL Bank, the Mumbai-based lender said on Thursday, giving a key regulatory clearance for one of the largest cross-border deals in India’s financial sector.

Emirates NBD Bank shares closed 0.4% down.

However, Abu Dhabi’s benchmark index edged 0.2%, supported by a 1% rise in Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank and 0.4% hike in petrochemical maker Borouge.

Oil prices, a key component of Gulf’s economies, settled 8% higher on Thursday, as traders worried about prolonged disruptions to oil supply. Brent crude was up 8% at $109.24 a barrel.

In a prime-time address late on Wednesday, Trump said the U.S. would continue to strike Iran over the next two to three weeks and was close to achieving its main strategic objectives in the conflict.

Dubai’s main share index dropped 0.6%, dragged down by a 2.5% slide in toll operator Salik .

In Abu Dhabi, the index lost 0.7%, hit by a 4.2% decline in First Abu Dhabi Bank .

Gulf stock markets remain volatile as investor sentiment shifts with changing geopolitical signals, said George Pavel, general manager at Naga.com Middle East. Mixed messages from Trump added uncertainty, driving risk aversion and short-term market swings, he continued.

The Qatari index fell 0.4%, with Qatar Gas Transport declining 1.9%.

Threats to maritime traffic have increased as the conflict has intensified. On Wednesday, an oil tanker leased by QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatar’s waters, the country’s defence ministry said.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index gave up early gains to finish 0.1% lower, with ACWA Power Co losing 1.6%.

However, oil major Saudi Aramco added 0.2%.

Continued oil exports and elevated prices could offer some support, though existing constraints may limit the upside, Pavel said.

Oil prices climbed nearly 7% on Thursday, as fears of prolonged supply disruptions intensified.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index retreated 0.7%.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Washington could end its military campaign within two to three weeks and that Tehran is not required to reach a deal to stop the conflict, signaling most clearly his intent to bring the month-long war to a close.

Dubai’s main stock index advanced 2%, led by a 5.6% surge in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and a 4.7% jump in top lender Emirates NBD .

Dubai approved 1 billion dirhams ($272.26 million) in economic support measures for the business sector, effective immediately for a period of three to six months, the crown prince said on X on Monday.

GCC equity markets advanced as hopes of a de-escalation in Middle East tensions helped restore some stability. If these expectations are realized, the recovery could become more sustained over the medium term, said Milad Azar, a market analyst at XTB MENA.

Support from the Dubai government’s new package could ease economic pressures and support growth, providing further boost to the market, Azar said. “Additionally, the UAE continues to benefit from resilient fundamentals.”

In Abu Dhabi, the index gained 1.4%, with Aldar Properties closing 0.9% higher.

The Qatari benchmark index rose 0.8%, with petrochemicals maker Industries Qatar finishing 3.9% higher.

Meanwhile, an Iranian cruise missile struck an oil tanker leased by state-owned QatarEnergy in Qatari waters on Wednesday, .

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index added 0.2%, helped by a 1.2% gain in Saudi National Bank, the country’s biggest lender by assets, and a 0.6% rise in oil giant Saudi Aramco.

In Saudi Arabia, the market has stabilized after a steady recovery this month, with still-elevated oil prices continuing to support sentiment, said Azar.

Oil, however, reversed earlier gains on Wednesday as uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East continued to unnerve markets.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index leapt more than 3%, as most of its constituents were in positive territory including Commercial International Bank , which gained 3.1%.

Trump is ready to end the Iran campaign even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, the Wall Street Journal reported, after the president warned earlier he would “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure if Tehran kept the waterway shut.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index gained 0.7%, with Al Rajhi Bank rising 1.1% and petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries Corp closing 1.7% higher.

Elsewhere, oil major Saudi Aramco added 0.4%.

Saudi Arabia has rerouted its Gulf crude exports from the Strait of Hormuz, with some 4.658 million barrels per day sent to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, Kpler data showed, a sharp rise from an average of 770,000 bpd in January and February.

Brent oil futures headed for their largest monthly gain in volatile trading on Tuesday, as investors assessed Iran war de-escalation against Strait of Hormuz supply risks.

Defying most of regional peers, the Saudi index weathered the war and rose 5.1% for the month.

In Qatar, the index rose 0.9%, led by a 2.2% rise in the Gulf’s biggest lender Qatar National Bank and a 3.5% increase in Qatar Gas Transport.

With a loss of more than 8%, the Qatari index saw its worst monthly performance since December 2020.

Dubai’s main share index gave up early gains to close 0.2% lower, with top lender Emirates NBD declining 0.6%.

A fully laden crude oil tanker off Dubai was attacked and set ablaze by Iran early on Tuesday, following Trump’s warning that the U.S. would obliterate Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

Dubai has approved economic facilitation measures worth 1 billion dirhams ($272.26 million) to support business sector, with implementation set to begin on April 1 for a period of three to six months, Dubai crown prince posted on X on Monday.

The emirate’s stock index, in the Middle East’s travel and tourism hub, was the worst performer in the region, sliding 16.4% for the month, its biggest decline since March 2020.

Dubai’s stock market may be supported by continued government efforts to sustain economic momentum, helping offset external headwinds, said Joseph Dahrieh, managing director at Tickmill.

The Abu Dhabi index slipped 0.1%, taking its monthly loss to about 9%.

In Abu Dhabi, higher oil prices are offering underlying support despite weaker crude export volumes. Overall, resilient domestic fundamentals continue to anchor UAE markets, said Dahrieh.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index added 0.3%, although it ended the month down 7.9%—its first monthly loss since December 2024.

Financial markets are seeking more clarity on the status of communications between Washington and Tehran as Trump has suggested a ceasefire could be reached quickly, but also reportedly said the U.S. could seize Kharg Island.

Iran has described U.S. proposals to end the war as “unrealistic, illogical and excessive.”

Dubai’s main share index dropped 1.2%, dragged down by a 2.9% slide in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and a 2.5% decrease in major bank Emirates NBD .

In Abu Dhabi, the index lost 0.7%, hit by a 1.3% slide in Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and a 4.9% plunge in Abu Dhabi Ship Building .

Meanwhile, shares in Fertiglobe , a producer of ammonia and urea, jumped 7%.

Emirates Global Aluminium, the Middle East’s largest producer of the metal, said on Saturday that its Al Taweelah production base in the UAE had suffered significant damage in Iranian missile and drone attacks. Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) , which operates the world’s largest single-site smelter, said on Sunday it was assessing damage from the strikes. Alba shares were down 0.1%.

GCC stock markets may remain under pressure in the near term as geopolitical uncertainty keeps sentiment fragile and volatility elevated, said Daniel Takieddine, Co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.

“Elevated oil prices may provide a partial buffer, but constrained export volumes could limit the extent of this support.”

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index advanced 0.8%, led by a 1.4% rise in Al Rajhi Bank  and a 1.1% increase in oil giant Saudi Aramco.

Elsewhere, ADES Holding added 1.7%, after the oil drilling group beat analyst expectations with a 2% rise in annual net profit and reiterated its strong growth forecast for this year despite some rig suspensions last year and recent halts due to the war.

Saudi crude exports redirected from the Strait of Hormuz to the Yanbu port in the Red Sea reached 4.658 million barrels per day last week, according to Kpler data, easing some concerns around supply disruption.

The supportive backdrop of higher oil prices is helping to underpin the stock market, particularly as the country sustains exports through the Yanbu port, said Takieddine.

Oil prices extended gains on Monday, with Brent headed for a record monthly rise.

The Qatari index declined 0.9%, with the Gulf’s biggest lender Qatar National Bank retreating 1.1%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index finished 2.6% lower.

Washington has deployed thousands of troops to the Middle East, and Trump is weighing the use of ground forces to capture Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub.

An Iranian official told Reuters on Thursday that a 15-point U.S. proposal, delivered to Tehran through Pakistan, was “one-sided and unfair”.

But investors drew some relief from Trump’s decision to give diplomacy more time, extending by 10 days his ultimatum to strike Iranian power plants after already delaying his original 48-hour deadline by five days.

Dubai’s main share index eased 0.1%, with top lender Emirates NBD retreating 3.2%.

UAE equities were broadly steady today, pausing after their recent rebound as investors stayed cautious amid ongoing regional tensions. Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough are offering some support, but the absence of a clear de-escalation signal is keeping sentiment in check, said Joseph Dahrieh, managing director at Tickmill.

That said, domestic fundamentals remain solid. Strong economic momentum, ample liquidity and resilient corporates are helping limit losses after the recent correction, Dahrieh said.

In Abu Dhabi, the index was down 0.1%.

The UAE has told the U.S. and other Western allies that it is prepared to join a multinational maritime taskforce to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Oil rose on Friday but was headed for its first weekly loss since February 9 after Trump extended the pause on attacks on Iran’s energy sites, while ceasefire uncertainty kept investors cautious.

President Donald Trump said Iran was eager to strike a deal, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said there had been no direct dialogue or negotiations with the U.S., although messages had been exchanged through intermediaries.

Conflicting messages from both sides over ceasefire talks have kept investors on edge.

Dubai’s main share index - which jumped more than 4% in the previous session - slid 3.2%, with Emaar Properties retreating 4.7% and top lender Emirates NBD tumbling 5%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index dropped 1.8%, hit by a 2.6% fall in Aldar Properties .

GCC equity markets experienced pressure amid intensifying geopolitical risks, which continued to weigh on investor sentiment and reinforce caution across the region, Milad Azar market analyst at XTB MENA.

The unclear outlook for ongoing diplomatic efforts generated mixed market behavior, while evolving expectations sustained near-term volatility, Azar added.

The Qatari index declined 1.3%, weighed down by a 1.2% fall in Qatar Islamic Bank and a 4.1% slide in Qatar Gas Transport .

According to Azar, GCC markets will remain vulnerable to geopolitical shifts, but diplomatic progress and strong macro fundamentals could support a rebound.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index reversed early losses to finish 0.1% higher, helped by a 1.6% gain in petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries Corp and a 0.5% increase in oil behemoth Saudi Aramco.

Oil rose more than 3%, rebounding from the previous session’s losses, as prospects for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East stoked concerns over further supply disruptions.

The near-month-long war, sparked by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, has effectively brought about a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and liquefied natural gas flow.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index lost 0.9%.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict were making progress.

A source confirmed to Reuters that the U.S. had sent Iran the proposal, while Israel’s Channel 12, citing sources, reported that Washington was seeking a month-long ceasefire to allow discussions on the plan.

Tehran denied that any direct talks had taken place, and the official IRNA news agency quoted an armed forces spokesperson on Wednesday as saying the U.S. was “negotiating with itself”. Israel and Iran exchanged airstrikes on Wednesday.

Dubai’s main share index jumped 4.2%, its biggest intraday gain since December 2024, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties surging 7.6% and top lender Emirates NBD climbing 6.8%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index concluded 2% higher, with Aldar Properties leaping 6.1% while ADNOC Logistics climbed 4.2%.

The maritime logistics provider said recent developments in the region had not materially impacted its global operations and that it remains financially strong and fully operational across all divisions.

The Qatari index advanced 1.4%, led by a 3.1% rise in Qatar Islamic Bank .

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index finished 1.2% higher, with the country’s biggest lender by assets Saudi National Bank rising 2.2%.

Elsewhere, oil major Saudi Aramco added 0.8%.

Crude exports from Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu climbedto nearly 4 million barrels per day last week, shipping data showed, underscoring Aramco’s progress in rerouting supplies through its East-West pipeline to bypass Hormuz disruptions caused by the Iran war.

Oil prices sank about 5% on hopes the U.S. proposal to Iran could help end the war and ease regional supply risks.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index closed 1.2% higher, with Commercial International Bank rising 1.5%.

U.S. company Apache Corporation has made a new natural gas discovery in Egypt’s Western Desert, the petroleum ministry said on Tuesday, with expected output of about 26 million cubic feet of gas per day.

The bullish forecast, which ADES pinned on its scale and geographic diversification - evidenced by 123 rigs deployed across 20 countries - comes as the war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, rattling global markets and threatening economic stability.

“We remain confident in our ability to navigate the current environment in a disciplined manner,” Chief Executive Mohamed Farouk said in a statement.

ADES announced a guidance range for its 2026 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of between 4.5 billion and 4.87 billion riyals ($1.2 billion-$1.3 billion), or an increase of 33% to 44% from its 2025 upper-end guidance of 3.39 billion riyals.

Saudi Aramco-Exxon refinery SAMREF in Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu targeted, source says

The company said it believes the suspension of a “handful” of its offshore rigs in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region - grouping Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain - will be short-term.

Top oil exporter Saudi Aramco has cut its oil output by 20% from two offshore fields and rerouted 7 million barrels per day of its crude to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Qatar has halted the production of liquefied natural gas, as has the UAE while also cutting its oil output along with Kuwait and Bahrain.

ADES said its strong outlook is supported by expected synergies from its acquisition of Norway’s Shelf Drilling, an ongoing uptick in utilisation, and favourable day-rates in certain international markets.

“Over the years, we have demonstrated resilience through cycles, expanded selectively into attractive markets, and delivered on the commitments we set for the business,” Farouk said, adding that safety of personnel and assets remains the highest priority.

Sentiment was volatile after U.S. President Donald Trump delayed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and talked of “productive” discussions to end the U.S-Israeli war with Iran, but Tehran dismissed that comment as “fake news”.

The U.S. will continue strikes on Iran, with the pause applying only to energy sites, Semafor reported, citing a U.S. official. Israel was not part of Washington’s contacts with Tehran, the report added.

The conflict has driven sharp rises in energy prices, disrupted air travel and hit shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz route for oil and LNG exports.

Dubai’s main index rose as much as 4% before closing 1.6% higher, lifted by gains in heavyweight real estate and banking stocks. Emirates NBD Bank jumped 7.3%, its second-biggest intraday gain in more than a year, while Emaar Properties added 4%.

Who hurts most as Iran war hits global economy including Pakistan?

In Abu Dhabi, the index gained 1.1%. Abu Dhabi National Energy rose 3% and Two Point Zero Group climbed 5.1%.

The Dubai index trimmed year-to-date losses to 9.5%, while Abu Dhabi is down 4.7%, LSEG data shows.

Any signs of easing tensions could lift equities further given solid domestic fundamentals in the UAE, said George Pavel, general manager at Naga.com Middle East.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark erased earlier declines to close 0.03% higher, supported by banking stocks. Al Rajhi Bank gained 3.3% and Saudi National Bank rose 3.1%. Saudi Aramco fell 1.5% and Saudi Arabian Mining dropped 6.8%.

Crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia’s western Yanbu port rose to nearly 4 million barrels per day last week, up sharply from levels before the Iran war, shipping data shows.

Qatar’s index slid 1.4%, extending losses from its previous session on March 18, led by financial and energy stocks. Qatar National Bank fell 3.5% and Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) lost 5.4%. Doha is not mediating between Washington and Tehran but supports all diplomatic channels to end the war, its foreign ministry said.

Oman’s index gained 1.9% and Bahrain’s edged 0.2% higher. Boursa Kuwait slipped 0.3%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index dropped 1.4%, with Commercial International Bank down 4.3%.

With the war ongoing and shipments of about one-fifth of global oil and LNG through the Strait of Hormuz still restricted, oil prices resumed their climb. Brent crude was up 3% at $102.97 a barrel by 1225 GMT.

After Gulf markets closed, world stocks rallied after Trump said he would order the U.S. military to postpone any strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.

Trump on Saturday had threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

Dubai’s main share index dropped 3% on Monday, led by a decline in heavyweight real estate and telecom stocks.

Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties slumped 4.6%, while telecom operator Emirates Integrated Telecommunications fell 4.5%.

Top lender Emirates NBD Bank and low cost carrier Air Arabia both dropped 4.9%.

Abu Dhabi’s benchmark index slipped 1.5% with real estate giant Aldar properties and biggest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank falling 5% each.

The Abu Dhabi-listed water and Electricity firm Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (better known as TAQA) declined 4.8%.

Asia shares slide, yields up as Gulf war intensifies

Heightened uncertainty fuelled risk aversion, triggering broad declines across most sectors as heavyweight stocks dragged on the overall market, said Joseph Dahrieh, managing director at Tickmill.

“Firms in the banking, real estate, and other sectors continue to maintain strong financial positions, leaving the market well-placed for a recovery once risk aversion fades and investor appetite for risk begins to improve,” he said.

ADNOC Gas settled 1.5% lower after the firm said it made temporary adjustments to its production of liquefied natural gas and export-traded liquids in response to ongoing shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

“Operations are continuing safely across ADNOC Gas plc’s asset base,” ADNOC Gas said. “Following debris falling near certain facilities, inspections confirmed no injuries and no impact to core processing integrity.”

The Dubai index has now fallen 11% year-to-date, while Abu Dhabi’s has declined 5.7%, according to LSEG data.

Israel stepped up its offensive by killing Iran’s security chief, while Iran renewed attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates. A senior Iranian official said the country’s new supreme leader had rejected de-escalation proposals relayed through intermediaries, dimming prospects of a swift end to a conflict that has sent global oil prices surging.

Dubai’s main share index rose 2.3%, buoyed by a 7.2% jump in top lender Emirates NBD and a 5.2% gain in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties.

In Abu Dhabi, the index added 1.4%, with Aldar Properties climbing over 6%.

The rebound highlights the UAE’s financial resilience and long-term appeal to investors, said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com. He said recent weakness may offer attractive entry points, supported by the country’s regulatory framework, political stability and business-friendly environment.

The Qatari benchmark gained 0.9%, with the Gulf’s biggest lender Qatar National Bank rising 1.8%.

Ratings agency S&P affirmed Qatar National Bank’s ‘A+/A-1’ ratings with a stable outlook.

Oman’s index edged up 0.2% and Bahrain’s rose 0.3%.

Dubai’s main share index reversed early losses to close 4.1% higher, with the index narrowing its losses since the start of the conflict to 15.3%.

Iran renewed its attacks on the United Arab Emirates, as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran entered its third week with no signs of easing. The Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, pushing oil prices about 3% higher and deepening concerns over inflation.

The fresh strikes led to a temporary shutdown of airspace in the UAE. A drone also hit an oil facility in Fujairah, a key port for Emirati oil exports, for a second consecutive day, while operations at the Shah gas field remained suspended following a drone attack.

U.S. President Donald Trump had said on Monday he was surprised by Iran’s retaliatory attacks on neighboring countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait.

Gulf banks face $307 billion deposit flight risk if war worsens, S&P says

But Gulf stock markets rebounded on Tuesday on strong real estate gains. Emaar Properties and Emaar Development advanced after S&P reaffirmed the sector’s resilience despite geopolitical tensions, said Daniel Takieddine, co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.

In Abu Dhabi, the index gained 1%, with Aldar Properties climbing 6%.

Earlier this month, the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges introduced a temporary 5% daily downside limit on listed securities and suspended trading on March 2 and March 3, as part of broader measures to curb volatility and maintain orderly market conditions.

According to Takieddine, improving global sentiment, solid local fundamentals and hopes of a Strait of Hormuz resolution could support further gains in both markets.

“However, a full recovery will largely depend on the de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region,” he said.

Qatar’s benchmark index rose 0.6%, while Oman’s gained 0.2%.

Bahrain’s index edged up 0.2%, whereas Boursa Kuwait slipped 0.6%.

Saudi Arabia’s stock market was closed for the Eid holidays.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index jumped 1.9%, with Commercial International Bank advancing 2%.

Over the weekend, Trump threatened further strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island — which accounts for roughly 90% of the country’s oil exports — after earlier attacks on military targets prompted a defiant response from Tehran and raised the prospect of further retaliation.

Shortly after the attacks on Kharg, Iranian drones struck a major oil terminal in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates. Although oil loading operations at Fujairah have resumed, four sources said it was unclear whether activity has fully returned to normal.

Dubai’s main share index declined 2.5%, dragged down by a 4.9% slide in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and a 1.7% retreat in top lender Emirates NBD.

Since the conflict began, the index has shed more than 18%, bringing its valuation down to 843.25 billion dirhams ($229.61 billion).

Citigroup is keeping most branches and offices in the UAE closed until further notice after temporarily closing them last week, the bank said on Monday, the latest sign of the impact on the industry of the Iran war.

Gulf equities are showing a growing divergence as the regional conflict drives a swift repricing of risk amid persistently high trading volumes, said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at Pepperstone.

“While the overarching narrative remains anchored by energy fundamentals, the price action reveals a market at a crossroads where investor conviction is being tested by shifting security dynamics in critical maritime corridors.”

In Abu Dhabi, the index lost 0.2%, hit by a 3.5% drop in Aldar Properties.

Meanwhile, the bourse’s market capitalization has shrunk to $771.9 billion, down nearly $77.2 billion from pre-conflict levels.

Earlier this month, the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges introduced a temporary 5% daily downside limit on listed securities and suspended trading on March 2 and March 3, as part of broader measures to curb volatility and maintain orderly market conditions.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index gained 0.6%, led by a 1.1% rise in the country’s biggest lender by assets Saudi National Bank.

According to Assiri, Saudi Arabia’s TASI stands out as the region’s clearest dip-buying story, with equities showing notable resilience by testing the key 11,000 level before easing slightly ahead of the Eid holiday. The trading pause could offer a timely breather as global efforts intensify to secure energy routes through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, oil major Saudi Aramco eased 0.2%. Oil prices were mixed, with benchmark Brent crude slightly higher and U.S. crude prices down amid attacks on Gulf oil production and Trump’s call for global efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The Qatari index fell 1.2%, with Qatar National Bank, the Gulf’s biggest lender by assets, losing 2%.

Oman’s index was down 0.7% and Bahrain’s dropped 1.8%.

Boursa Kuwait lost 0.4%. Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index slipped 1.6%, as most of its constituents were in the negative territory.

Investor caution intensified as the war in the Middle East approached the two-week mark, with heavy exchanges of drone and missile strikes across the region.

U.S. President Donald Trump sharply criticized Iran’s leadership, while Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in his first public comments, said on Thursday Tehran would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and urged neighbouring countries to shut U.S. bases on their territory or risk being targeted.

The escalation has raised concerns over disruption to regional trade and energy flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for global oil supplies.

Dubai’s main share index slipped 1.7% with most of its constituents in negative territory, led by losses in real estate and utilities stocks. Blue-chip developer Emaar Properties slid 3%, while top lender Emirates NBD dropped 4.9%. The index logged its second highest weekly percentage loss in six years.

In Dubai, debris from what authorities said was a successful interception caused minor damage to the facade of a building in the city centre, the emirate’s media office said early on Friday, adding that no injuries were reported. The office did not specify the location, though a witness said the damage occurred near the Dubai International Financial Centre.

In Abu Dhabi, the stock index closed 1.6% lower for the day and posted a fourth consecutive weekly loss, dragged down by broad based declines. First Abu Dhabi Bank , the UAE’s largest lender, fell 2.2%, while Aldar Properties lost 4.3%.

“Most sectors continued to trade in negative territory, although some stocks have started to show signs of stabilization. This could help the market find a floor, but overall sentiment remains cautious”, said George Pavel, general manager at Naga.com Middle East.

“Higher oil prices could provide some support for energy-related stocks. However, ongoing disruption risks to trade routes, energy infrastructure, and regional logistics could continue to limit upside potential for the broader market”, he added.

Iran said the world should be ready for oil priced at $200 a barrel after its forces attacked merchant vessels on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency called for large-scale release of strategic reserves to cushion what could become one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s.

Dubai’s main share index fell 3.6%, hit by declines of 4.9% in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties and 4.9% in top lender Emirates NBD.

A military spokesperson said on Wednesday Iran would target U.S. and Israel-linked economic and banking interests in the region after an attack on an Iranian bank.

A projectile struck a container ship 35 nautical miles north of Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates, causing a small fire, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Thursday.

Dubai authorities, meanwhile, said a drone fell onto a building near Dubai Creek Harbour.

In Abu Dhabi, the index dropped 2.3%, with Aldar Properties losing 4% and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank declining 5%.

Citigroup and Standard Chartered have told Dubai staff to work from home after beginning office evacuations, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing sources.

UAE markets may continue to face volatility as investors respond to unfolding regional events. Even so, healthy domestic fundamentals could help pave the way for a rebound once tensions ease, said Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB MENA.

More broadly, investor focus is expected to remain on possible disruptions to oil supply and shipping flows, as well as on the prospects for a rapid de-escalation in the region, Azar added.

The Qatari index lost 0.9%, with the Gulf’s biggest lender by assets Qatar National Bank falling 1.8%.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index gave up early gains to close 0.5% lower, hit by a 1.1% fall in oil behemoth Saudi Aramco.

Brent futures were up $4.90, or 5.33%, at $96.88 a barrel by 1107 GMT, having hit $100 per barrel in earlier trading.

Saudi Arabia’s defence ministry said on Thursday it intercepted a drone heading toward the Shaybah oilfield, in the third such incident reported on the same day.

Bahrain’s index eased 0.2% and Kuwait’s was down 0.5%.

Bucking the trend, Oman’s index added 0.4%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index lost 0.9%, with Commercial International Bank losing 2.6%.

Still, hopes of a quick resolution were undermined by Iran’s military, which signaled it would continue the conflict.

Dubai’s main share index rose 0.6%, helped by a 2.8% rise in top lender Emirates NBD and a 2.5% increase in sharia-compliant lender Dubai Islamic Bank.

Among other gainers, Dubai Financial Market -which operates the emirate’s stock exchange- jumped 7.5%.

On the other hand, blue-chip developer Emaar Properties dropped 4.9%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index was up 0.5%, with Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank climbing 4.1%.

Oil prices fell by more than 5% following Trump’s comments.

Israel launched heavy airstrikes on Hezbollah-held southern suburbs of Beirut and began what it called a “broad-scale” wave of attacks on infrastructure in Tehran on Friday. Iran said it responded by firing missiles at central Tel Aviv.

Overnight, Iranian drones attacked the U.S. Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, the biggest U.S. base in the Middle East, Qatari officials said. There were no reported casualties.

UAE bourses reopened on Wednesday after a two-day halt following Iran’s unprecedented wave of missile and drone attacks on the Gulf nation over the weekend.

Dubai’s main share index slid 3.2%, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties retreating 4.8% and budget airliner Air Arabia losing 4.9%.

Emirates and Etihad Airways resumed limited services to major global cities from their UAE hubs on Friday, even as the threat of missile strikes added pressure on airlines scrambling to accommodate passengers.

The escalating Middle East conflict has exposed how dependent global air travel is on a few major hubs, particularly Dubai — the world’s busiest international airport — as the closure of Gulf airspace disrupted airline networks worldwide.

Despite a two-day halt, the market recorded its worst week in nearly six years, down about 9%.

The UAE stock market is likely to stage a stronger-than-expected rebound once the initial shock fades and investors reassess the attractive entry points created by recent price discovery, said Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com.

As geopolitical sentiment stabilizes, investors may rotate into undervalued blue-chip names, partly unwinding the recent selloff as fear-driven selling eases and fundamentals regain prominence, supported by the UAE’s long-term growth outlook.

In Abu Dhabi, the index finished 1.4% lower, with Aldar Properties shedding 4.9% and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank falling 2.9%.

In telecoms, Emirates Telecommunications Group declined 3.8%.

The index recorded a weekly loss of more than 5%.

The Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges temporarily set a 5% lower price limit on securities to try to reduce volatility.

Meanwhile, the UAE is considering freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held in the country, a move that could restrict Tehran’s access to foreign currency and international trade as the U.S.-Israeli military conflict intensifies, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

Following the reopening, the Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges temporarily set a 5% lower price limit on securities to try to reduce volatility.

Israel launched another large wave of strikes on Tehran on Thursday, targeting what it said was infrastructure belonging to the Iranian authorities, after Iranian missiles sent millions of Israelis rushing into bomb shelters.

Dubai’s main share index closed 1.3% lower after falling as much as 4.2% earlier in the session, with top lender Emirates NBD and blue-chip developer Emaar Properties both losing 4.9%.

Budget airline Air Arabia dropped 4.9%, but utility firm Dubai Electricity and Water Authority advanced 5.3%.

XTB MENA analyst Milad Azar said that while the market may remain sensitive to regional developments, Dubai’s underlying fundamentals are strong and could support a rebound.

Abu Dhabi’s index retreated 2.2%, with First Abu Dhabi Bank falling 1.2% and Aldar Properties down 5%. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank tumbled 4.7%.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index finished 0.8% higher, with Al Rajhi Bank rising 1.7%.

The Saudi index posted a weekly gain of 0.6%.

Al Moammar Information System surged 10% to its daily maximum limit on a deal with AI firm HUMAIN to design and build a data centre.

ACWA Power and Dallah Healthcare gained 3.5% and 6.1% respectively, following increases in full-year net profit.

The Saudi market bounce was driven by higher oil prices after the initial jolt from recent geopolitical tensions. Azar said stocks looked set to build on the recovery, supported by expectations of firmer energy prices as disruptions persist in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy transport route.

Oil prices surged more than 3%, extending a rally as the war raised fears of prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies.

Shares in oil major Saudi Aramco, however, eased 0.7%.

The Qatari benchmark rose 1%, with Qatar National Bank, the Gulf’s biggest lender by assets, up 3.2%.

Gains were limited by a 2.5% fall in petrochemical maker Industries Qatar and a 7% slide in Qatar Aluminum Manufacturing Co.

Qatar, the Gulf’s biggest liquefied natural gas producer, declared force majeure on gas exports on Wednesday, with sources saying a return to normal production may take at least a month.

Oman’s and Kuwait’s indexes both advanced 1.3%, while the Bahraini index fell 1.1%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index climbed 2.3%, snapping a four-day losing streak, led by a 3.7% gain in Commercial International Bank.

However, the Egyptian index recorded a weekly decline of 3.5%, its steepest drop since June.

U.S. forces continued nonstop operations against Iran on Wednesday as Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iranian missile and air-defence targets.

Dubai’s main share index slid 4.7%, its biggest intraday drop since May 2022, in broad-based declines led by blue-chip developer Emaar Properties 4.9%, while budget airline Air Arabia retreated 5%.

Airlines and the tourism sector rushed to respond to more than 20,000 flight cancellations, while governments moved quickly to repatriate travellers stranded in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, top lender Emirates NBD dropped 5%.

In Abu Dhabi, the index ended 1.9% lower from the 3.6% loss in early trade, with the country’s biggest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank losing 5%. Among energy stocks, Dana Gas and TAQA were down 5% and 4.9%, respectively.

ADNOC — the parent across the fuel distribution, drilling, logistics, and gas chain — came under pressure, the entire complex sold off in tandem.

Aldar Properties was down 5%.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank plunged 4.9%. The UAE’s third-largest lender by assets said it has restored its mobile banking app after a disruption that also hit its contact centre, with some features still being reinstated.

Both Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges said on Tuesday that they would temporarily set the lower price limit for securities at -5% from -10%.

The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange has told listed companies to immediately assess financial and operational exposure and promptly disclose any material information that could influence investor decisions.

The UAE’s Capital Markets Authority closed the ADX and DFM on March 2 and March 3, an extraordinary step outside usual holiday and mourning closures.

The closure froze trading in billions of dollars’ worth of listed assets as investors awaited clarity on the scale of damage from the weekend strikes on airports, ports and residential areas across both emirates.

It sent investors the message that regulators are prioritising orderly price discovery over a volatility rollercoaster, said Ahmad Assiri, a research strategist at Pepperstone.

“Because the Saudi market has already absorbed the initial shock, recovering from a 5% Sunday drop to post gains by Tuesday, the UAE reopening is expected to follow this recovery template to some extent,” Assiri said.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index finished 1.2% higher, on course to extend the previous session’s gains, led by an increase of 1.3% in Al Rajhi Bank.

Jabal Omar Development - which runs the Jabal Omar complex of hotels and property within walking distance of the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca - advanced about 6%, following a steep rise in annual profit.

Elsewhere, budget airline flynas jumped 4.3%, ending a three-session losing streak.

However, oil major Saudi Aramco slipped 2.3%.

Oil prices rose about 1% as U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran disrupted Middle East supplies, but the pace of gains slowed from past sessions after President Donald Trump suggested the U.S. Navy could escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

In Qatar, the index added 0.8%, with Qatar Islamic Bank advancing 2.2%.

However, Industries Qatar eased 0.3%, as the petrochemical maker announced plans to suspend and cut some products.

Muscat’s index rose 0.4%, whereas the Bahraini index was down 1.3%.

The Kuwaiti index fell 0.6%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index retreated 0.6%.

The attack comes a day after Qatar halted its production of liquefied natural gas - about a fifth of global supply - while Saudi Arabia suspended production at its largest domestic refinery.

Major Israeli gas fields, including Leviathan, were offline, and most output in the Iraqi Kurdish region had been shut down as Iran continued to target infrastructure, including energy facilities, ports and airports, over recent days.

Oman had been acting as mediator in talks between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme before the attacks on Iran.

Smoke rising from US embassy in Kuwait City

The resulting damage at Duqm was contained and no casualties were recorded, Oman’s news agency added.

Duqm had also been targeted by two drones on Sunday, wounding one worker. Oman had been spared from attacks on Saturday, the day the US and Israel launched their attack.

The Abu Dhabi government’s media office said on Monday a fire broke out after the Musaffah fuel tank terminal was targeted by a drone, without impacting its operations.

US embassy in Riyadh hit by drones, Saudi defence ministry says

Abu Dhabi state oil giant ADNOC operates a facility in Musaffah from which fuels are transported by trucks and through a 1,600-kilometre (994 miles) pipeline network.

Israel broadened its campaign with new strikes on Iran and the Hezbollah, while Tehran launched missiles and drones toward Israel, several Gulf states and a British air base in Cyprus, raising concerns of a prolonged conflict.

Qatar’s benchmark index shed 1.2%, pressured by a 2% drop in Qatar National Bank, the Gulf’s biggest lender by assets.

The Gulf nationcondemned Iranian attacks on its territory and said it reserves complete right to retaliate in a letter to the UN Secretary General and the president of the Security Council on Monday.

In Muscat, the index retreated more than 1% in broad declines, while the Kuwaiti index eased 0.1%.

Bucking the trend, Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index rose 0.5%, lifted by a 1.9% climb in oil behemoth Saudi Aramco , while petrochemical maker Saudi Basic Industries Corp , of which Aramco owns 70%, added 2.8%.

Oil prices rose for a third straight day on Tuesday as escalating US-Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards commander said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz was closed and warned that Iran would set any ship attempting to pass on fire, Iranian media reported.

Among individual stocks, Saudi’s budget carrier flynas extended declines to a third straight session, losing 2.9%, as the escalating war disrupted air travel in the region.

Elsewhere, Bahrain’s index was little changed.

Meanwhile, the UAE’s Securities and Commodities Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and the Dubai Financial Market would remain closed on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory mandate over the country’s capital markets.

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Saturday - and Iranian retaliation - sent shockwaves worldwide through sectors from shipping to air travel to oil, amid warnings of rising energy costs and disruption to business in the Gulf, a strategic waterway and global trade hub.

Israel has continued airstrikes on Iran and expanded its assault to include attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon on Monday. Tehran said it had launched a new wave of missiles after the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The UAE Capital Markets Authority said the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain shut on March 2 and March 3, citing its supervisory and regulatory role over the country’s capital markets.

In Qatar, the benchmark index - which was closed for a bank holiday on Sunday - dropped 4.3%, its biggest fall since March 2020. The country’s markets are open from Sunday to Thursday. The Gulf’s biggest lender by assets, Qatar National Bank, fell 4.8% - marking its biggest intraday fall since December 2022.

Qatari stocks slide as Iran retaliates; Abu Dhabi, Dubai markets shut for two days

Qatar Islamic Bank declined 4.6%. HSBC cut its target price for the Sharia-compliant lender to 28.4 riyals ($7.79) from 29.4 riyals.

Elsewhere, maritime and logistics company Qatar Navigation tumbled 5.6% and LNG shipping company Qatar Gas Transport retreated 6.7%.

Kuwait’s Index, which resumed trading after suspension on Sunday citing “exceptional circumstances”, trimmed early losses to 1.9% from 3.6%, with National Bank Of Kuwait losing 3.7%.

Market sentiment is likely to remain highly sensitive to regional geopolitical developments, with tensions driving near-term price moves. However, strong regional fundamentals and the relatively limited impact seen over the weekend may help cushion losses and cap downside, said Daniel Takieddine Co-founder and CEO, Sky Links Capital Group.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index finished flat in a choppy trade, a day after falling more than 2%.

Among fallers, budget airline flynas tumbled 6.4%, to become the heaviest faller on the index.

However, oil giant Saudi Aramco advanced 1.5%, extending gains from the previous session, when it rose 3.4%.

Oil prices jumped 7% to their highest levels in months on Monday as Iran and Israel stepped up attacks in the Middle East, damaging tankers and disrupting shipments from the key producing region.

Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas on Monday and Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike, Reuters reported citing a source, as Israeli and U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation triggered precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas facilities across the Middle East.

Saudi stocks stabilized and may recover, supported by the energy sector as oil prices rise, with other sectors potentially remaining resilient. A sharper rebound - and spillover gains across the region - would be more likely if geopolitical risks ease quickly and the physical impact stays limited, said Takieddine.

Muscat’s index climbed 1.1%, while Bahrain stocks eased 0.2%.

The decline could persist if regional tensions intensify. However, because the sell-off is largely driven by geopolitical risk, markets could rebound quickly if tensions ease, said Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Director at Tickmill.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index fell 0.6%.

“Three US F-15E Strike Eagles flying in support of Operation Epic Fury went down over Kuwait due to an apparent friendly fire incident. During active combat – that included attacks from Iranian aircraft, ballistic missiles, and drones – the US Air Force fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defences,” CENTCOM said Monday, adding that all six aircrew ejected and were safe.

“Kuwait has acknowledged this incident, and we are grateful for the efforts of the Kuwaiti defense forces and their support in this ongoing operation,” it added.

Earlier, Kuwait’s defence ministry said several American warplanes crashed in Kuwait on Monday morning but their crew survived.

“Several US warplanes crashed this morning. Confirming that all crew members survived,” a defence ministry spokesman stated, adding that the cause was under investigation.

Israel, US carry out attacks on Iran; Tehran launches retaliatory strikes on regional bases

“Authorities immediately initiated search and rescue operations, evacuating the crews and transporting them to a hospital for medical evaluation and treatment. He noted that their condition is stable,” the statement added.

Sirens earlier sounded over the city following the latest volley of Iranian attacks, which started across the oil-rich Gulf region on Saturday.

Israel, US carry out attacks on Iran; Tehran launches retaliatory strikes on regional bases

The embassy did not announce it had been hit, but issued a security alert urging people to stay away.

“There is a continuing threat of missile and UAV attacks over Kuwait. Do not come to the embassy,” the statement said.

Kuwait’s interior ministry said it intercepted an unspecified number of drones targeting the small, oil-rich country at dawn.

Kuwait intercepts hostile drones on third day of Iran retaliatory strikes

One person has been killed and 32 others injured in Kuwait, the health ministry said on Sunday, in Iran’s retaliatory attacks after US-Israeli strikes killed its supreme leader.

Witnesses reported blasts in the Dubai area and over Doha for a second day on Sunday, as Iran’s retaliation for US-Israeli strikes that killed Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei forced major regional airports including Dubai to shut, in one of the biggest disruptions to global aviation in years.

 Trading in Middle East markets is an early indicator of how investors measure any impact on assets from oil to safe-haven currencies and gold.

Analysts at Barclays raised their Brent crude forecast to about $100 a barrel on Saturday from an earlier estimate of $80.

In a rare move, Boursa Kuwait suspended trade until further notice citing the “exceptional circumstances” the country is facing.

In Saudi Arabia, the region’s biggest stock market, the benchmark index pared its losses to trade 2% lower

 compared with a 4.6% drop early in the session.

Decliners included Al Rajhi Bank at 2.8%, Saudi National Bank at 4.3% and budget airline flynas at 5.8%.

Oil behemoth Saudi Aramco advanced 2.6% amid expectations of rising oil prices.

The kingdom on Saturday said Iran had attacked Riyadh and the country’s eastern region.

“GCC markets are likely to remain under pressure as investors price in a higher and potentially prolonged geopolitical risk premium following the recent escalation in the region,” said Tahir Abbas, head of research at Oman’s Ubhar Capital.

“While higher oil prices provide a near-term fiscal cushion for regional governments, the more material concern is the risk of affected shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, which would have broader implications for energy flows and trade.”

Gulf stock markets face heightened correction risk and volatility as geopolitical tension drives a risk-off mood, pressuring prices and expectations, said XTB MENA Senior Market Analyst Hani Abuagla. Investors will track regional developments and any further escalation or real-economy damage could deepen the selloff, he said.

The Muscat stock index trimmed its decline to 1.8% after sliding more than 3% in a broad-based selloff, with heavyweight OQ Base Industries falling 1.3%.

Bahrain’s stock index was down 0.9% and Qatar’s stock exchange was closed for a bank holiday.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index slumped 5.5% in early trade with all of its constituents in the red.

Disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remains a key risk, weighing on sentiment and disrupting normal operations across a range of sectors, Abuagla said.

Ayatollah Khamenei assassinated in US-Israeli airstrikes: state media

“Markets have been well supplied to date,” he said, adding that he is in contact with ministries from major producers in the region and IEA governments about the situation.

Iranian state television confirmed Khamenei’s death early Sunday, hours after US President Donald Trump declared that Khamenei died in the conflict that had defined his rule of Iran, and a senior Israeli official told Reuters his body had been found following US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

“This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their county,” Trump said in a statement.

Iran’s Fars and Tasnim news agencies reported that the country has declared 40 days of public mourning following the death of Khamenei.

Iran announces transition plans

According to official IRNA news agency, a three person council consisting of the country’s president, the chief of the judiciary, and one of the jurists of the Guardian Council will temporarily assume all leadership duties in the country.

IRGC vows pledges revenge

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has mourned the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, vowing swift retaliation and announcing what it described as a major forthcoming military operation.

In a statement carried by the semi-official Fars news agency, the IRGC said, “We have lost a great leader and we mourn him,” describing Khamenei’s death as martyrdom “at the hands of the most vicious terrorists and executioners of humanity.”

Mounting crises of Khamenei’s rule

He survived foreign pressure before but, even before Saturday’s attack, was facing the gravest crisis of his 36-year rule, attempting to spin out negotiations with the United States over Iran’s nuclear programme.

Already this year, he had ordered the deadliest crackdown since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, saying those protesting nationwide, initially against soaring prices, “should be put in their place” before security forces opened fire on demonstrators chanting “Death to the dictator!”.

And only last June, Khamenei had been forced into hiding during 12 days of airstrikes by Israel and then the U.S. that killed several close associates and Revolutionary Guard commanders and smashed prized nuclear and missile facilities.

READ MORE: Israel, US carry out attacks on Iran; Tehran launches retaliatory strikes on regional bases

That assault was among the many indirect results of the attack on Israel by the Iranian-backed Palestinian group Hamas on October 7, 2023, which not only triggered the war in Gaza but also spurred Israel to hammer Tehran’s other regional proxies.

With Hezbollah weakened in Lebanon and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad toppled, Khamenei’s reach across the Middle East was stunted, while the US demanded he abandon Iran’s last major strategic lever - its ballistic missiles.

Khamenei refused to even discuss giving up missiles, which Iran saw as its only remaining deterrent to Israeli attack, a display of intransigence that may have helped invite the airstrikes that targeted him.

As the U.S. military massed air and naval forces in the region, Khamenei’s calculations drew on a character moulded by revolution, years of turmoil and war with Iraq, decades of sparring with the U.S., and a ruthless accumulation of power.

While elected officials managed day-to-day affairs, no major policy - especially one concerning the United States – could proceed without his explicit approval; Khamenei’s mastery of Iran’s complex system of clerical rule combined with limited democracy ensured that no other group could challenge his decisions.

As leader, Khamenei was once far from supreme

Early in his rule, Khamenei was often dismissed as weak and an unlikely successor to the Islamic Republic’s late founder, the charismatic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

Not having achieved the religious rank of ayatollah when he was appointed Supreme Leader, Khamenei had difficulty wielding power through religious authority, as the theocratic system foresaw.

After struggling for a long time to emerge from the shadow of his mentor, it was by forging a formidable security apparatus devoted solely to him that he finally imposed himself.

Khamenei always distrusted the West, particularly the U.S., frequently accusing it of seeking to topple him.

READ MORE: World leaders mourn Ebrahim Raisi death

In a typically pugnacious speech after January’s protests, he blamed Trump for the unrest, saying: “We consider the US president criminal for the casualties, damages and slander he inflicted on the Iranian nation.”

Yet despite his ideological rigidity, he showed a willingness to bend when the survival of the Islamic Republic was at stake.

The concept of “heroic flexibility”, first mentioned by Khamenei in 2013, permitted tactical compromises to advance his goals, mirroring Khomeini’s choice in 1988 to embrace a ceasefire after eight years of war with Iraq.

Khamenei’s guarded endorsement of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers was another such moment, as he calculated that sanctions relief was necessary to stabilise the economy and buttress his grip on power.

Trump quit the 2015 pact during his first term in 2018 and reimposed crippling sanctions on Iran. Tehran reacted by gradually violating all agreed curbs on its nuclear programme.

Loyal security structure key to Khamenei’s power

At times of increasing pressure, Khamenei repeatedly turned to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij, a paramilitary force numbering hundreds of thousands of volunteers, to snuff out dissent.

It was they who crushed the protests that exploded after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election as president in 2009 amid allegations of vote fraud.

In 2022, Khamenei was just as ruthless in arresting, imprisoning or executing protesters enraged by the death in custody of the young Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini.

And it was again the Guards and Basij who crushed the latest round of protests in January.

His power has also owed much to the parastatal financial empire known as Setad, under Khamenei’s direct control. Worth tens of billions of dollars, it grew hugely during his rule, investing billions in the Revolutionary Guards.

Scholars outside Iran have painted a picture of a secretive ideologue fearful of betrayal - an anxiety fuelled by an assassination attempt in June 1981 with a bomb hidden in a tape recorder that paralysed his right arm.

Khamenei himself suffered severe torture, according to his official biography, in 1963, when at 24 he served the first of many terms in prison for political activities under the rule of the shah.

After the Revolution, as deputy defence minister, Khamenei became close to the Guards during the 1980-1988 war with Iraq, which claimed a million lives from both sides.

He won the presidency with Khomeini’s support but was a surprise choice as successor when the supreme leader died, lacking both his popular appeal and his superior clerical credentials.

Karim Sadjadpour at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said that “accident of history” had transformed a “weak president to an initially weak supreme leader to one of the five most powerful Iranians of the last 100 years”.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said he is considering a strike on Iran to pressure its leaders to agree a deal to curb Tehran’s nuclear programme. The United States has assembled a large military force in the Middle East in recent weeks.

The United States and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday. A geopolitical risk premium has built up on oil prices on fears that a conflict will disrupt Middle East supply through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts say.

Oil was trading above $72 a barrel on Friday and close to the highest levels since July.

Oil prices rise 3% as US and Iran extend talks into next week

State-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) offered additional volumes to partners in the country’s onshore concession, the sources said, declining to be identified by name. It was not immediately clear how much extra Murban supply there will be.

Two onshore fields will be shut for maintenance in May, impacting export availability, another source with knowledge of the matter said.

Partners in Murban crude producer ADNOC Onshore, which include BP, TotalEnergies, China National Petroleum Corp, Inpex, Zhenhua Oil and South Korea’s GS Energy, are entitled to about 40% of production of the grade at about 2 million barrels per day.

ADNOC, CNPC, Inpex, Zhenhua Oil and GS Energy did not respond immediately to Reuters’ requests for comment. BP and TotalEnergies declined to comment.

Bloomberg News reported on the additional Murban volumes earlier on Friday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the plans.

The move by the UAE comes as Saudi Arabia is increasing its oil production and exports as part of the top OPEC producer’s contingency plan in case any U.S. strike on Iran disrupts supplies.

Last year, Saudi Arabia lifted oil exports in June by around 0.5 million barrels per day, shipping more crude to overseas storage, just as the United States attacked Iranian nuclear sites. The plan this year is similar to 2025, according to two sources who spoke to Reuters this week.

The rise in Murban supply has weighed on spot crude premiums that slipped in the past week to less than $2 a barrel to Dubai quotes for cargoes loading in April, Reuters data showed.

Key members of the OPEC+ oil producers’ group, which includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, meet on Sunday. They arelikely to consider raising oil output by a modest 137,000 bpd for April, OPEC+ sources said this week, after suspending production increases in the first quarter.