“Pakistan’s next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2029. However, it is highly likely that the country will see a change of government before this date,” stated BMI in its Pakistan Country Risk Report for the fourth quarter of calendar year 2024.

“No Pakistani prime minister has ever completed a full five-year term in office,” it noted.

The report said political risk in Pakistan will remain highly elevated in 2024 and 2025.

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“While allies of opposition leader Imran Khan won a plurality of seats in the February 2024 election, Pakistan’s establishment parties managed to form another coalition government.

“This administration, lacking popular support, faces the daunting challenge of managing an economy that is beginning to recover following the 2022/23 crisis and addressing fragile security concerns.

“Further protests by Khan’s supporters – many of whom believe that their party has been targeted by Pakistan’s establishment – are likely,” read the report.

BMI gave Pakistan a score 60.6 out of 100 on its Political Risk Index.

Pakistan received a score of 42.8 on the Governance sub-component of BMI Political Risk Index.

The report noted that the Pakistani government faces the daunting challenge of managing disputes between the more liberal urban centers and the more religious rural areas, between Punjab and the smaller provinces, and between landowners and the large rural populace.

BMI gave a score of 76.6 out of 100 to Pakistan on the Society sub-component of its Political Risk Index.

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BMI said while the frequency and lethality of terrorist attacks in Pakistan has decreased significantly compared to a decade ago, militants still kill several hundred individuals annually.

“Attacks are concentrated in economically marginal areas, with relatively few targeting the larger cities.

“We believe tensions between Pakistan and India will remain elevated, though the deterrence provided by the two states’ nuclear arsenal means that an outbreak of war remains unlikely,” it said.

Pakistan received a 48.6 out of 100 on the Security sub-component of BMI’s Political Risk Index.

In its ‘Key View’, BMI also stated that despite several successful legal appeals, opposition leader Imran Khan will remain imprisoned for the foreseeable future.

“We expect that the PML(N)-led government will remain in power over the coming 18 months and will succeed in pushing through with IMF-mandated fiscal reforms.

“In the unlikely event that the government is replaced, the most likely alternative is a military-backed technocratic administration rather than fresh elections.”

In a series of tweets on Sunday, the economist highlighted the impact of the February 09 General Elections for Pakistan that remains engulfed in a myriad of economic challenges including “inflation, growth, debt and investment.”

“Pakistan’s economy has consistently fallen behind globally – last year was one of the worst, with the economy actually contracting,” he said. “Every macro fundamental is flashing red: inflation, growth, debt, investment, to name a few.”

Criticising the government’s inability to generate revenue, Atif said the federal government has no money.

“It cannot even afford to pay the salary of a peon or a soldier without borrowing,” he said.

The economist said Pakistan’s entire tax revenue is consumed after paying provinces their share, pensions to retirees, and interest on debt.

‘Nonsensical’: economist Atif Mian slams Pakistan govt’s policies

“Inflation cannot be controlled when the entire government is run on deficit,” he said.

Whereas, “growth is impossible when government has no money to invest in the future, and lack of growth makes every problem worse,” he said.

“The country is bankrupt. It is sinking deeper every year,” he exclaimed while highlighting the state of affairs in the South Asian country.

“I have never seen such despondency. So many wanting to leave, established firms are no longer comfortable investing.

“Yet no leader has a viable economic plan for the future,” he said.

“People are mad – and they have every right to be. 442,353 children died in Pakistan just last year due to poverty, which is almost half a million dead kids every year.”

The General Elections 2024 have been marred with unclarity as the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), to date, has not announced the results of all constituencies.

Meanwhile, the economist warned that after the latest elections, the distance between the ruler and the ruled has never been wider.

“Do they understand how dangerous that is?” he questioned.

“There is an attempt – once again – to cobble together a compromised group.

“No one has a plan to fix the economy. But even if they magically did somehow, they cannot do anything because they have lost all trust in their people they are foreigners in their own land,” concluded Atif.

The South Asian country is struggling to recover from an economic crisis while it grapples with rising militant violence in a deeply polarised political environment.

An “internet issue” was the reason behind the delay in results, Zafar Iqbal, special secretary at the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), said without elaborating.

The government said it suspended mobile phone services ahead of the election on Thursday as a security measure, and they were being partially resumed.

Ready to work with new govt in Pakistan: US State Department

By early Friday morning, the ECP had announced results for 12 of the 265 contested seats in parliament on its website.

Five were taken by supporters of jailed cricket star Imran Khan who were contesting as independents while four were won by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N), the party of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

Three seats were taken by the Pakistan Peoples Party of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of assassinated premier Benazir Bhutto.

The main battle is expected to be between candidates backed by Khan, whose Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won the last national election, and the PML-N of Sharif.

With counting continuing into Friday morning, a clear picture was likely to emerge only later in the day.

A party needs 133 seats in parliament for a simple majority but many analysts believe the vote may not produce a clear winner.

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Sharif, considered by many observers to be a strong candidate, dismissed talk of an unclear result.

“Don’t talk about a coalition government. It is very important for a government to get a clear majority… It should not be relying on others,” he told reporters after casting his vote in the eastern city of Lahore.

Nine killed in attacks

Thousands of troops were deployed on the streets and at polling stations across the country on Thursday. Borders with Iran and Afghanistan were temporarily closed as security was stepped up to ensure peaceful polling.

Despite the heightened security, 12 people, including two children, were killed in 51 bomb blasts, grenade attacks and shootings by militants, mostly in the western provinces, the military said in a statement.

Nine killed on election day in Pakistan

The victims included five police killed in a bomb blast and firing on a patrol in the Kulachi area of Dera Ismail Khan district in the northwest, authorities said. Two children died in a blast outside a women’s polling station in Balochistan province.

“Despite a few isolated incidents, the overall situation remained under control, demonstrating the effectiveness of our security measures,” caretaker Interior Minister Gohar Ejaz said in a statement.

Washington was concerned about “steps that were taken to restrict freedom of expression, specifically around internet and cellphone use,” State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel told reporters.

The US strongly condemned election-related violence both in the run-up to the polls and on election day, Patel added.

Violence grips country on the eve of general election

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also expressed concern about the violence and the suspension of mobile communications services, his spokesperson said in an e-mailed statement.

Amnesty International called the suspension of mobile services “a blunt attack on the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly”.

Chief Election Commissioner Sikandar Sultan Raja said the decision on mobile networks was made by “law and order agencies” following violence on Wednesday in which 26 people were killed.

If the election does not result in a clear majority for anyone, as analysts are predicting, tackling multiple challenges will be tricky - foremost being seeking a new bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after the current arrangement expires in March.

A delayed count is underway after Pakistan’s election on Thursday, with candidates backed by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) faring better than expected despite a crackdown targeting the party.

Sporadic PTI protests have broken out amid claims the delay is allowing authorities to rig the vote-counting against them.

Nine killed on election day in Pakistan

Police official Sahibzada Sajjad Ahmed, from the Shangla district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, said PTI protesters “started pelting stones at the police and set fire to a police vehicle”.

“Due to the intense stone pelting by PTI workers, two protesters were hit by stones and lost their lives,” he told AFP.

PTI candidate Syed Fareen told AFP the demonstration was over the party being “usurped” and “the police resorted to firing on peaceful protesters, resulting in the loss of lives of two of our workers”.

“PPP has representation in all the provinces, and no government in Punjab, Balochistan, and the Centre can be formed without our support,” Bilawal said while speaking to Geo News.

Bilawal said it would be premature to say who is forming the government as results from some constituencies were still awaited.

“We don’t know the whole count nor have independents announced their decisions,” Bilawal said, adding: “No government will be able to solve the public’s problems without addressing the political toxicity.”

The PPP chairman called for a consensus among all political parties for the betterment of the country.

According to unofficial results, Bilawal’s PPP has secured 54 seats (out of 265) in the National Assembly, 10 (out of 297) in the Punjab Assembly, and 11 (out of 51) in the Balochistan Assembly. While in the Sindh Assembly, the PPP won 88 out of 129 seats and is in a comfortable position to form the next government in province.