The government has failed to achieve 6 percent growth target for the current fiscal year and revised the projection for the entire financial year to 5.79 percent on the basis of available data of six to eight months. An official stated that growth in industrial and services sectors is not encouraging and projection of both the sectors has also been revised downward by a meeting of National Accounts Committee, that met on Monday to review the GDP growth target for the current fiscal year on the basis of available data. Growth of industrial sector has been revised downward to 5.80 percent against 7.3 percent target set in budget for the current fiscal year and commodity sector to 4.84 percent from 5.4percent.
An official maintained that despite missing the target of current fiscal year, 5.8 percent projected GDP growth target for the current fiscal year is the highest during the decade.
The agriculture sector grew by 3.81 percent with a growth of crops by 3.83 percent against 3.5 percent target set in the budget. Production of three major crops - rice, cotton and sugar - was projected to increase while a decline in production of wheat, maize and live stock was estimated. The NAC was informed that the growth in production of rice, sugarcane and cotton was projected on the basis of available date at 8.7 percent, 7.4 percent, and 11.8 percent respectively while production of wheat and maize was projected at 4.4 percent and 7.1 percent respectively and livestock growth was revised downward to 3.76 percent against the target of 3.8 percent.
The overall provisional industrial sector growth was projected at 5.80 percent on the basis of available data against 7.3 percent target set in the budget for the current fiscal year. The mining and quarrying are projected to grow 3.04 percent against a target of 3.4 percent, large-scale manufacturing (LSM) sector 6.24 percent against a target of 6.3 percent with major contributors cement (12 percent), tractors (44.7 percent), trucks (24.41 percent) and petroleum products (10.26 percent). Electricity and gas sub sector showed growth of 1.84 percent while the construction activity increased by 9.13 percent.
Services sector is estimated at 6.43 percent while growth of wholesales and retail trade was projected at 7.51 percent which is dependent on the output of agriculture and manufacturing and imports. Agriculture increased by 3.81 percent, manufacturing increased by 5.80 percent and imports increased by 17 percent. Transport, storage and communication sector grew at a rate of 3.58percent.
Finance and insurance sectors showed an overall increase of 6.13percent, while general government services grew by 11.42 percent. It is mainly driven by the increase in salaries and inflation. Other private services contributed positively.
The GDP at current market prices has also been computed and stands at Rs 34,396 billion for 2017-18. The meeting stated this shows a growth of 7.6 percent, over Rs 31,963 billion, for 2016-17. The per capita income calculates to Rs 180,204 for 2017-18. However, per capita income during 2016-17 was Rs 162,230 based on provisional figures of Population Census 2017 held in March 2017 ie 207,774,520. The revised series of per capita income will be compiled after finalization of 6th Housing and Population Census result.
The estimates of 2015-16 and 2016-17 for GDP and GFCF presented before the last meeting of National Accounts Committee (NAC), held on May 17, 2017 have been updated based on the latest available data.
====================================================================================================
NATIONAL ACCOUNTS COMMITTEE MEETING
====================================================================================================
Gross Domestic Product of Pakistan (at constant basic prices of 2005-06)
S. No Sectors/Sub-Sectors (Rs. Million) Growth Rates Contribution to GDP growth 2017-18
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
====================================================================================================
(F) (R) (P)
====================================================================================================
A. Agricultural Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 2,205,433 2,251,006 2,336,771 0.15 2.07 3.81 0.73
1. Crops ( i+ii+iii) 822,690 830,203 862,003 -5.27 0.91 3.83 0.27
i) Important Crops 521,125 532,498 551,511 -5.86 2.18 3.57 0.16
ii) Other Crops 251,005 244,323 252,454 0.40 -2.66 3.33 0.07
iii) Cotton Ginning 50,559 53,382 58,039 -22.12 5.58 8.72 0.04
2. Livestock 1,288,373 1,326,948 1,376,862 3.36 2.99 3.76 0.43
3. Forestry 46,592 45,487 48,749 14.31 -2.37 7.17 0.03
4. Fishing 47,779 48,368 49,157 3.25 1.23 1.63 0.01
B. Industrial Sector ( 1 to 4 ) 2,323,169 2,449,392 2,591,336 5.69 5.43 5.80 1.21
1. Mining and Quarrying 333,121 331,849 341,934 6.19 -0.38 3.04 0.09
2. Manufacturing ( i+ii+iii) 1,494,591 1,581,528 1,680,161 3.69 5.82 6.24 0.84
i) Large Scale 1,193,569 1,260,676 1,338,011 2.98 5.62 6.13 0.66
ii) Small Scale 198,652 214,843 232,413 8.19 8.15 8.18 0.15
iii) Slaughtering 102,370 106,009 109,738 3.61 3.55 3.52 0.03
3 Electricity Gen. & Dist., Gas Dist. 203,661 215,506 219,463 9.39 5.82 1.84 0.03
4. Construction 291,796 320,509 349,778 13.68 9.84 9.13 0.25
A+B Commodity Producing
Sectors (A+B) 4,528,602 4,700,398 4,928,107 2.92 3.79 4.84 1.94
C. Services Sectors ( 1 to 6) 6,588,200 7,013,740 7,464,526 5.72 6.46 6.43 3.85
1. Wholesale & Retail trade 2,035,509 2,187,360 2,351,726 4.73 7.46 7.51 1.40
2. Transport, St. & Communication 1,493,830 1,560,175 1,616,045 4.89 4.44 3.58 0.48
3. Finance & Insurance 356,981 395,453 419,690 6.42 10.78 6.13 0.21
4. Housing Services (OD) 747,343 777,148 808,222 3.99 3.99 4.00 0.27
5. General Government Services 832,505 882,015 982,748 9.72 5.95 11.42 0.86
6. Other Private Services 1,122,032 1,211,589 1,286,095 6.77 7.98 6.15 0.64
D. GDP {Total of GVA at bp (A+B+C) 11,116,802 11,714,138 12,392,633 4.56 5.37 5.79 5.79
====================================================================================================
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.