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    <title>Business Recorder - Markets - Financial</title>
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    <pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2026 02:33:45 +0500</pubDate>
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      <title>Investors see opportunity in post-Mubarak Egypt</title>
      <link>https://www.brecorder.com/news/2757/investors-see-opportunity-in-post-mubarak-egypt</link>
      <description>&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;&lt;img style="margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; float: left;" src="https://i.brecorder.com/images/stories/pics2010/fixed_income_400.jpg" width="400" height="268" /&gt;NEW YORK: The end of Hosni Mubarak's rule in  Egypt on Friday should bring opportunities for investors as freer  markets and increased commerce gradually take root in a country with 80  million people hungry to become part of the global economy.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Mubarak relinquished power to the military 18  days after an uprising led by a technologically savvy young population  demanding jobs, freedoms and transparency.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Despite the political uncertainty of what lies  ahead in the short-term, investors see the Egyptian "White Revolution,"  as many citizens are calling it, an opportunity to grab market-share in  the region's most populous country.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;"There will be democracy and transparency and  these changes will lead to more economic growth," said Larry Seruma,  managing principal at Nile Capital Management. "It's a great opportunity  to invest in Egypt."&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Prior to the revolution, Nile Capital's exposure to Egypt was 5 to 10 percent of its $4.79 million portfolio.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Under the 30-year rule of Mubarak, Egypt had  been a critical ally of the United States and the main stability force  in the Middle East. But now that his rule is over, many worry that a  power vacuum could lead to a new regime that will oppose Western  capitalism and be antagonistic toward Israel, the main U.S. ally in the  region.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;The outcome is yet to be seen. But government  officials and investors in general, as well as the majority of  Egyptians, are hopeful for a more open government and market.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;"I think investment in Egypt itself could  increase, say, a year from now as a new government comes in. If that  government ends up being democratic in nature, then you could certainly  see some improvement," said Bryant Evans, investment advisor and  portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management, in Champaign, Illinois.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Even the most powerful and wealthy businessmen  in Egypt have been beating the drums of democracy and free markets as  the best form of insurance for their investments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;"When you have less than, say, 10 percent of the  population with checking accounts, there is potential for growth," said  Karim Baghdady, managing director of Egyptian-based investment bank  Beltone in New York.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;"When you have a gray economy that is almost as  large as the official GDP, if you are able to institutionalize that  economy, then people will start securitizing their debts, able to borrow  more, buy more. So there is a big domino effect."&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;'NOTHING HAS CHANGED MY VIEW'&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Egyptian assets make up just a fraction of  global emerging market funds, and the economy accounts for just about  0.3 percent of the MSCI emerging market index.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;The Van Eck Market Vectors Egypt index  exchange-traded fund rallied after Mubarak's resignation and set a daily  volume record. It was last up 4.8 percent at $18.66.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Overall, emerging market equities have come  under selling pressure due not only to Egypt's political ructions, but  also on profit-taking from 2-1/2 year high benchmark indices.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Investors have pulled a net $6.27 billion from  emerging market equity funds in the last three weeks, according to data  from Lipper, a Thomson Reuters service.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;However, when factoring the market price  movements on the stocks, the assets under management in U.S.-domiciled  funds are down $10.92 billion, or 5.6 percent since the week ended Jan.  26. Yet this is seen by some dedicated investors as an opportunity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;"I have kept my 'hold' on Egypt. I didn't have a  'sell' through this crisis. Nothing that happened today has changed my  fundamental view that the outcome will be a good one," said Gabriel  Sterne, senior economist at London-based Exotix, a brokerage catering to  frontier market investors.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;In the fixed income space, one fund manager said  Egypt's U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have recovered a good  portion of lost ground, but is still not convinced the debt issues are a  bargain.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;"I think people realize there was a panic in the  bonds and short positions had to be covered, while a potentially more  peaceful resolution to the protests, with limited escalation of  violence, added to some relief buying," said Jeff Grills, co-head of  emerging market debt portfolios at hedge fund Gramercy in Greenwich,  Connecticut.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;EXPECTANT MARKETS&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;The Egyptian pound had been falling steadily  since political protests broke out on Jan 25. By Thursday, it traded at  5.887 to the U.S. dollar, marginally lower than Wednesday's close of  5.8775 but stronger than the six-year low of 5.960 reached before the  central bank intervention on Tuesday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;The stock exchange has been shut after  countrywide political protests caused the benchmark index to plunge 16  percent in two days, and analysts have warned of a renewed sell-off when  trading resumes, most likely on Sunday.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;The regulator said on Tuesday the exchange would  suspend trade for a half hour if its broad 100-share index declined by 5  percent, and for longer if it fell by 10 percent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;The cost of insuring Egyptian sovereign debt  against default or restructuring for five years fell 25 basis to 315 bps  after Mubarak's Friday announcement, compared with 380 bps earlier in  the day and 340 bps at Thursday's close, data monitor Markit said. They  traded around 240 basis points before the start of the year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;Meanwhile, the euphoria on the streets of Cairo is fresh, the uncertainty high and the excitement for a better future palpable.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;"The new government, whatever shape it takes,  will be incentivized to provide work for a greater portion of the  population to get them above the poverty line. There has been a lot of  foreign investment to give it up. If anything, the economy will grow,"  said David Grayson, managing director of emerging markets brokerage firm  Auerbach Grayson in New York.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p class="MsoPlainText"&gt;&lt;Center /&gt;&lt;b&gt;&lt;i&gt;Copyright Reuters, 2011&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/center&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
      <content:encoded xmlns="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"><![CDATA[<p class="MsoPlainText"><img style="margin-right: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; float: left;" src="https://i.brecorder.com/images/stories/pics2010/fixed_income_400.jpg" width="400" height="268" />NEW YORK: The end of Hosni Mubarak's rule in  Egypt on Friday should bring opportunities for investors as freer  markets and increased commerce gradually take root in a country with 80  million people hungry to become part of the global economy.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Mubarak relinquished power to the military 18  days after an uprising led by a technologically savvy young population  demanding jobs, freedoms and transparency.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Despite the political uncertainty of what lies  ahead in the short-term, investors see the Egyptian "White Revolution,"  as many citizens are calling it, an opportunity to grab market-share in  the region's most populous country.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">"There will be democracy and transparency and  these changes will lead to more economic growth," said Larry Seruma,  managing principal at Nile Capital Management. "It's a great opportunity  to invest in Egypt."</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Prior to the revolution, Nile Capital's exposure to Egypt was 5 to 10 percent of its $4.79 million portfolio.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Under the 30-year rule of Mubarak, Egypt had  been a critical ally of the United States and the main stability force  in the Middle East. But now that his rule is over, many worry that a  power vacuum could lead to a new regime that will oppose Western  capitalism and be antagonistic toward Israel, the main U.S. ally in the  region.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">The outcome is yet to be seen. But government  officials and investors in general, as well as the majority of  Egyptians, are hopeful for a more open government and market.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">"I think investment in Egypt itself could  increase, say, a year from now as a new government comes in. If that  government ends up being democratic in nature, then you could certainly  see some improvement," said Bryant Evans, investment advisor and  portfolio manager at Cozad Asset Management, in Champaign, Illinois.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Even the most powerful and wealthy businessmen  in Egypt have been beating the drums of democracy and free markets as  the best form of insurance for their investments.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">"When you have less than, say, 10 percent of the  population with checking accounts, there is potential for growth," said  Karim Baghdady, managing director of Egyptian-based investment bank  Beltone in New York.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">"When you have a gray economy that is almost as  large as the official GDP, if you are able to institutionalize that  economy, then people will start securitizing their debts, able to borrow  more, buy more. So there is a big domino effect."</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">'NOTHING HAS CHANGED MY VIEW'</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Egyptian assets make up just a fraction of  global emerging market funds, and the economy accounts for just about  0.3 percent of the MSCI emerging market index.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">The Van Eck Market Vectors Egypt index  exchange-traded fund rallied after Mubarak's resignation and set a daily  volume record. It was last up 4.8 percent at $18.66.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Overall, emerging market equities have come  under selling pressure due not only to Egypt's political ructions, but  also on profit-taking from 2-1/2 year high benchmark indices.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Investors have pulled a net $6.27 billion from  emerging market equity funds in the last three weeks, according to data  from Lipper, a Thomson Reuters service.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">However, when factoring the market price  movements on the stocks, the assets under management in U.S.-domiciled  funds are down $10.92 billion, or 5.6 percent since the week ended Jan.  26. Yet this is seen by some dedicated investors as an opportunity.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">"I have kept my 'hold' on Egypt. I didn't have a  'sell' through this crisis. Nothing that happened today has changed my  fundamental view that the outcome will be a good one," said Gabriel  Sterne, senior economist at London-based Exotix, a brokerage catering to  frontier market investors.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">In the fixed income space, one fund manager said  Egypt's U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign bonds have recovered a good  portion of lost ground, but is still not convinced the debt issues are a  bargain.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">"I think people realize there was a panic in the  bonds and short positions had to be covered, while a potentially more  peaceful resolution to the protests, with limited escalation of  violence, added to some relief buying," said Jeff Grills, co-head of  emerging market debt portfolios at hedge fund Gramercy in Greenwich,  Connecticut.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">EXPECTANT MARKETS</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">The Egyptian pound had been falling steadily  since political protests broke out on Jan 25. By Thursday, it traded at  5.887 to the U.S. dollar, marginally lower than Wednesday's close of  5.8775 but stronger than the six-year low of 5.960 reached before the  central bank intervention on Tuesday.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">The stock exchange has been shut after  countrywide political protests caused the benchmark index to plunge 16  percent in two days, and analysts have warned of a renewed sell-off when  trading resumes, most likely on Sunday.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">The regulator said on Tuesday the exchange would  suspend trade for a half hour if its broad 100-share index declined by 5  percent, and for longer if it fell by 10 percent.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">The cost of insuring Egyptian sovereign debt  against default or restructuring for five years fell 25 basis to 315 bps  after Mubarak's Friday announcement, compared with 380 bps earlier in  the day and 340 bps at Thursday's close, data monitor Markit said. They  traded around 240 basis points before the start of the year.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">Meanwhile, the euphoria on the streets of Cairo is fresh, the uncertainty high and the excitement for a better future palpable.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText">"The new government, whatever shape it takes,  will be incentivized to provide work for a greater portion of the  population to get them above the poverty line. There has been a lot of  foreign investment to give it up. If anything, the economy will grow,"  said David Grayson, managing director of emerging markets brokerage firm  Auerbach Grayson in New York.</p>
<p class="MsoPlainText"><Center /><b><i>Copyright Reuters, 2011</b></i><br /></center></p>
]]></content:encoded>
      <category>Markets</category>
      <guid>https://www.brecorder.com/news/2757</guid>
      <pubDate>Sat, 12 Feb 2011 15:37:56 +0500</pubDate>
      <author>none@none.com (Fakir Syed Iqtidaruddin)</author>
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