Earlier this week, Gallup Pakistan and Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency (Pildat) grabbed the headlines when they released the findings of their jointly conducted survey, the “Political Weather Forecast for Elections 2013”. That opinion poll contended that the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) is the front runner for the upcoming general elections.
The TV pundits and spin doctors had hardly had their fill, alternatively agreeing and contesting these findings when another survey was brought to the public eye by the German institute, Heinrich Boll Stitfung (HBS).
That survey had comprised no fewer than 160 questions, that were put before 1,300 individuals in 58 districts of the country. However, only one question from that opinion poll grabbed all the media’s attention. That question was; which political party will you vote for in the next general elections?
In response, 29 percent of the respondents stated that they support the Pakistan Peoples Party and will vote for it in the next elections. One in four replied that they would vote for Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) while 20 percent showed support for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf.
This Survey that has been attributed to HBS was actually conducted by the Sustainable Policy Development Institute (SPDI), while the German institute simply published some of the findings of that opinion poll in their monthly bulletin for February.
Talking to BR Research, the Deputy Executive Director at SPDI, Dr Vaqar Ahmed revealed that the basic premise of the exercise is aimed at assessing whether the publication of party manifestos has a significant effect on people’s voting choices.
To accomplish this goal, the same survey will be conducted another two times before the upcoming general elections. The second wave will be conducted in April after all major political parties have published their respective election manifestos. The third and final wave will be conducted in May, just days before polling commences.
Dr Vaqar also said the pollsters will attempt to gather responses from the same 1,300 individuals, to assess whether people in Pakistan generally base their election choices on the announced manifestos, or stick to their traditional choices.
“Among the preliminary findings from the first wave of the Survey, we found that political parties need to do a lot of work to consolidate the mindset of their voters,” said the SDPI official. He highlighted that while people are content to vote for the same parties that they have traditionally supported, their individual perceptions on many social issues are not aligned with the stated manifestos of these parties.
The Survey questions gauged people’s perceptions regarding governance, government revenue and expenditure (and the consequent effect on people’s purchasing power), social issues (education, healthcare, employment) and other ‘soft’ issues (crime, justice, terrorism).
Some of the findings are disturbing, to say the least. For instance, as many as 12 percent of the respondents stated that domestic violence against women is justified, while a similar proportion opined that women in the country should be encouraged to adopt the veil. A similar proportion of those surveyed were against allowing minorities holding public office. On the bright side, there appears near consensus in the country that education for females should be prioritized at the elementary, secondary and higher education levels.
While survey respondents appear in agreement with political parties in condemning drone strikes as counter-productive and a breach of the national sovereignty, SPDI found that a majority of respondents want foreign aid to continue flowing to Pakistan.
According to Election Commission of Pakistan, voter turnout in previous general elections has been relatively low. The recently published survey by Gallup Pakistan and Pildat also highlighted that these potential voters may become key determinants in the upcoming polls.
The second and third waves of the SPDI survey that are yet to be conducted, may give a good indication whether those who actually do head to the polling stations, come Election Day, will base their decisions on party manifestos or will stick to the symbols they like best.
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