Who will they vote for?

From what it appears, the Watan Cards and laptops seem to have done the trick for the ruling parties in Centre and Punjab. Little else explains considerable increase in popularity of the PML(N) and especially that of the ruling PPP. A latest survey titled ‘Political Weather Forecast’ conducted jointly by PILDAT and Gallup reveals astonishing numbers.
That the PML (N) is the most popular party does not come as a surprise, but the ground it seems to have gained, especially in Punjab, over just three months since the last survey conducted by the IRI, is immense. Nationwide, PML(N) has a 41 percent approval, a massive jump from its 32 percent rating back in November 2012. On the other hand, PTI is the only major party to have lost significant grounds in the past three months.
Almost all major parties barring the PTI have gained popularity during the three-month period, including the ones in the government alliance. There is a perception that the PTI probably peaked too soon, and the Party’s engagement in intra-party elections and unclear stance during the Tahir-ul-Qadri episode has done its reputation, a considerable damage.
That the PPP has now emerged as the second most popular party in the country is as surprising as it gets, probably for the Party workers too. PPP’s popularity increase in Sindh goes against the general perception that it was losing popularity over its Local Government stance, which was still in place when the survey took place. Now that the PPP has backtracked, even better numbers could be expected should the survey be held today.
PTI was always going to be the runner-up in Punjab, but the massive slide at the cost of a humongous jump in PML (N)’s popularity in the KPK province, now means that the PML (N) is the front runner in another province, in addition to the traditional hub of Punjab.
Political experts opine that pre-election surveys should not be overly analysed, as things can change quite dramatically in a very short span of time. PTI will rest its hop of a turnaround on its slogan of change that it expects to gain momentum, once the election campaign truly starts. A lot will depend on how the PTI show on the 23rd of March in Lahore goes. If it turns out to be a bigger success than its previous Lahore and Karachi shows, the landscape could start changing again.
And there is a reason too, as amongst the leaders; Imran Khan enjoys the highest popularity, as indicated by the Survey. PTI has a very high P-E Gap, which is the Popularity-Electability Gap. Should its campaign attain a considerable momentum, it could narrow the P-E Gap considerably to challenge the bigger players.
PTI would also be hoping that the PML(N) may have peaked too soon, and would try to cash in on the opportunity, especially in the battleground Punjab. The Survey does shed light on how things stand, but an interesting two months in the run-up to the elections lie ahead, and don’t be surprised if the tables are turned the other way around.