Curing cellular curfews

That the Ashura processions concluded without major mishaps is a source of relief. The Interior Minister has suggested that the largely peaceful culmination of the two-day Muharram congregations has more to do with government action of suspending mobile phone services in around 50 cities. In many districts, the service wasn’t available for a period of more than 36 hours.
Not many people seem comfortable with the closure of cellular services. This was evident on the country’s social media sphere last weekend where many commentators picked the government decision apart. Interestingly, strong reaction is coming from a demographic that has recourse to internet-enabled communication services like Skype, IM chat, WhatsApp, Viber, Tango and Go sms.
While a majority of people have lamented the brief communication breakdown in their lives, others seemed to cherish this for a change, and were actually amazed at how simple life can be without having to look at cellphones all the time. A few expressed this nagging concern that the nation’s rudderless ship is now drifting towards a Stone Age of sorts, and wondered when the authorities would pull the plug on the internet.
On the positive side, people were actively looking forward to Monday – something uncharacteristic of the salaried individuals. After all, the starting day of the work week promised to propel them back to the modern era, with mobile services switching back on, fuel stations running liquid again, and shopping malls opening for customers.
Yet, making basic necessities like cellular service inaccessible isn’t exactly auspicious. This continuing failure to strike a balance between security concerns and individuals’ communication needs has added to the long list of socioeconomic inconveniences. While operators have been sitting on the fence, watching helplessly, this supposedly one-time measure has spiraled into a pattern that has held for months now.
This comes back to hurt the public exchequer. BR Research’s estimates show that if cellular operators are unable to use their networks, they would forego revenues of almost Rs1 billion for a single day. This translates into lost tax revenues (GST, WHT, and FED) of Rs200- 250 million per day. These figures swell if mobile service’s interconnection with fixed and wireless local loop services is accounted for.
Reportedly, government has set in motion the 3G auction process again. It must be kept in mind that cellular suspension on a scale like this might affect the value proposition of prospective new entrants, for the market’s fundamentals can deteriorate. With such actions, curtains seem to be closing on the country’s flagship sector, its success story.
There are plausible grounds to argue against this cellular suspension strategy championed by the Interior Ministry. It is, in fact, not a strategy – at best, it is a tactical measure that has become, regrettably, the first and final line of defense.
And there is no element of surprise to it. While public opinion seems mostly against this approach – an approach that reflects a growing preoccupation with security state – the question is: will the same precautions be taken again in the future?
Most likely, yes – and it wouldn’t be long before sequels are out. Sans a coherent and holistic strategy for preemption, law enforcement, and prosecution of miscreants of all hues and kinds, there is no closure in sight for the government’s fixation with mobile service closures.
Meanwhile, politicians across the aisle and ideological divide keep blowing hot and cold on militancy’s raison d’être. Confusion and inaction galore!
With parliamentary elections to be held within next five months, such measures might intensify, for electoral transition in Pakistan has historically been associated with unrest and violence. Admittedly, law enforcement is a grave challenge in these extraordinary times. But it requires the authorities to go beyond such stop gap arrangements– this might get us by without untoward incidents, but with luck and only occasionally.