Food security for Pakistan

With household incomes in the developing world rising consistently, spending a large portion of disposable income on food has become a norm. This has translated into an astronomical increase in global consumption of food items leading experts to raise red flags about its impact on the future of the worlds food basket. Coupled with the fact that the global population is estimated to climb by 35 percent to reach 9.1 billion by the year 2050; with the greatest relative increase estimated in the least developed countries, the logical question follows: will the worlds food supply be able to keep up with the demand? The answer, however, is less than straight forward. FAOs Agricultural Outlook 2012-2021 reports that on average, agricultural production in the world will have to increase by nearly 60 percent in the next two decades to cope with the demands of a much larger and hungrier population having an average food consumption of 3,070 Kcal per day per person. This figure would not have appeared so daunting, had it not been for the current state of resource scarcity, climate changes and disparate economic opportunities facing most of the worlds developing nations. Since higher food prices affect different households in different manners, as a result of disparities in income, food source, expenditure patterns and coping strategies, the lowest tier of the worlds poor is likely to suffer the most as a result of the future shortages in food supply. For a country like Pakistan, where the poorest households end up spending more than 70 percent of all their income on food, the future even more uncertainty, putting their ability to meet other essential expenses into further question. In the past almost all such households have tried to cope with increasing food prices by reducing their non-food expenditure, and our future inability to meet the rising demand for food will only result in the countrys inability to feed these poor. With a meagre growth rate of of 3.1 percent over last year, Pakistans agricultural sector has been a constant underperformer, and keeping in view the present pace of growth and development in the sector, all talks of future plans for better productivity, growth and efficiency seem to be inadequate. What we need at this stage are aggressive initiatives which ensure that a rapid growth in production is balanced through an appropriate combination of increased acreage, higher yields and greater investments into farm mechanisation. However, as of now the future for food security in Pakistan remains mired in volatile prices and food shortages that will take some serious policy changes to counter. Not only have we not been able to translate rising global technology changes into growing yields; as many of our neighbours have; most of our agricultural sector is still caught in the age where mechanisation extends to the purchase of a tractor and not much more.