Unlike the football world cup, where upsets have become the trend, Pakistans economy has produced some refreshing results with current account numbers painting an improved picture.
According to central bank data, current account posted a surplus of $136 million in May that took back memories to the first quarter of fiscal year 2005, when there was an external account surplus of $114 million.
But the numbers on the surface don reveal the entire story.
A perusal of data shows that government service exports added some $760 million in May, under the head of military units and agencies, as against the nine month average of around $60 million under the same head.
Adjusted for this one-off increase, the current account will actually show a deficit around the $571 million, more-than-double the deficit seen in April.
Pakistans growing role in the US endgame in Afghanistan may be cited as the primary reason for this monumental rise. But if history is anything to go by, these inflows aren likely to grow at the same pace, if they will grow at all.
Plus, since these funds are likely to dry up once the US leaves the region, analysts and commentators should not be swayed by surpluses caused by such one-off exogenous factors.
In addition to foreign exchange received in lieu of military services, softer global oil prices have been working in Pakistans favour of late.
The dark cloud of oil, always hovering over economic progress in Pakistan, has been tame in the past few months. After increasing slightly in April, average crude oil prices have been on a declining trend, as relative stability on the geopolitical front and stable supply-demand dynamics have allowed other factors to come into play.
The outlook for oil, however, remains risky. As the barrel crosses to the $85-90 mark, remittances, trade balances and almost any other factor that is tracked, loses significance. But until that happens, its safe to assume that remittances will provide some cushion.
Workers remittances are up 14 percent in the first eleven months compared to the previous year - an increasing trend witnessed throughout the year, despite economists concerns of a fragile global economic recovery.
Two major steps, therefore, are required to ensure a sustainable recovery in external account balance; step up on the efforts to increase workers remittances, and more importantly exploit abundantly available local energy resources and rethink the energy mix.
While there may be significant room in both, remittances and energy, sustained efforts will be required to realize the potential benefit.
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