Global oil prices may have started tapering off from its recent high of $87 per barrel, but the damage has already been done.
After narrowing considerably in February, trade balance jumped more than 50 percent month-on-month in March to $1.48 billion, according to FBS data. Thankfully, however, last months remittances were back on an upward trajectory, rising to its six-month high of $763 million.
If this balancing effect continues, Pakistan may still be able to mitigate the loss of foreign exchange due to soaring oil prices.
But if the uptick in remittances last month was a one off event, with the major downtrend since September still intact, then it might be difficult for economic managers to wiggle their way out of this quandary.
Though consensus estimates suggest a tame oil between now and June, some contrarians expect further upside potential towards the $100 mark, or at least staying in a range of $80-$95 per barrel. A higher side realisation of oil prices, however, can easily derail the so-called recovery process here at home.
Summers are fast approaching in Pakistan, which means higher furnace oil requirements by power producers - that is, of course, if the inter-corporate circular debt problem is resolved any time soon.
In any case, in the absence of substantial growth in foreign direct investment, higher oil prices and lower remittances can drag the economy back to square one.
"Pakistan might need additional aid and IMF support if foreign investment continues to weaken and remittances slow due to a lag impact of the labour market downturn in the West and the Middle-East," analysts at Roubini Global Economics noted earlier this year.
That would be interesting - and also perhaps expecting too much from a lender, who appears to be punishing Pakistan like a teacher penalizing his student on grounds of missing yesterdays homework.
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