Lost in foggy forecasts about economy

If the realm of economic forecasts wasn abstruse enough, global financial institutions have made it even more difficult to figure whats going to happen next. The reason, however, is quite simple: a series of latest reports/comments by the IMF, World Bank and the U.N on the prospects of world economy offers a variety of outlooks.
The world economy is recovering faster and stronger than expected and a double dip recession is unlikely to happen, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, IMFs managing director is reported to have recently said at the Asian Financial Forum.
Unlike the IMF, however, the United Nations fears that world economy could see a W-shaped recession - citing that the recovery is uneven and conditions for sustained growth are fragile.
The UNs report on the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2010 cautions that a "premature" removal of state support of about $2.6 trillion could trigger the second part of a "double dip recession" after last years contraction. But what construes the premature removal isn answered by the U.N - and for which, one has to turn to the World Bank.
Although, the global lender sees a continuation in the modest recovery currently underway, its chief economist says governments should keep fiscal measures in place until "2012", despite concerns from policy makers about the risk of inflationary pressure from higher government borrowing to fund the plans.
One area where a consensus exists apparently is that private consumption is still down which has kept global trade on the downside. World Banks economists say that the rebound in trade and industry is related more to a turnaround in the global inventory cycle than to a recovery of private consumption and investment - a fact that signals that the recovery may not be lasting.
So while the stronger-than-expected rebound in equity prices worldwide and in Pakistan may belie the fact that problems still remain in the financial sectors of major economies, fiscal and monetary managers at home mustn be complacent.
Inevitably, and unlike to what Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin says, these conditions also imply that the delay in Pakistans sovereign bond issue, earlier planned for 1QCY10, will be more than a it.