Trade gap: not everything means like it sounds

Its nice to see Pakistans trade deficit numbers falling by 29 percent year-on-year in the first half of current fiscal year.
But comparisons with the year-ago period aren too meaningful in a world that is now divided on a crisis and a post-crisis canvas. It is chiefly because those numbers included the extraordinary roaring of global commodity prices that, coupled with various other factors, brought world economies to a screeching halt.
What matters is how the economy (especially the subject in question: trade) is faring now. For this purpose, month-on-month changes might offer some help. Data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics show that exports haven been growing as swiftly as perceived.
In fact, on a month-on-month basis, growth has been rather flat since January 2009, compared to changes in import that has been shepherding trade gap numbers as and where it goes (See graph). This is largely due to the rebound in global crude oil prices - Pakistans major purchase - which have been picking up quite significantly of late.
Six-month trade gap numbers ($6.8bn) have so far been limited to just a tad half past IMFs full-year projections of $12.389 billion. But, if oil continues to behave the way it has been behaving of late, trade might be imbalanced further.
Apart from oil, there is another possible trigger for higher imports: purchases to re-build inventory levels by those businessmen whose shops and warehouses were affected by Ashura riots last month.
That number, however, is hard to assess given the largely undocumented nature of the economy, and considering that much also depends on how quickly do they receive those relief funds announced by various officials.
As for exports, they will likely stay weak (near or below current levels) in January given that historically overseas sales drop in the first month of calendar year, following which, they typically pick up in February and March. But, that of course depends much on the manufacturing sector, which, as of last available data, was found struggling in the face of energy deficit and the shortage of credit for private sector.