Gone is the decade and gone with it are the promises of a powerful country by the end of 2009. The latest piece of hope offered to the public by Pepco promises much improved situation by January, 21. Although, the DG Pepco hasn disclosed the year but one hopes he is referring to 2010.
The Power Minister, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, on the other hand is not too keen on issuing anymore deadlines after the one that lapsed and caused a great deal of humiliation to his ministry. He is hopeful of the countrys power woes to be reduced significantly by the start of FY11, but insists that this is no final deadline.
Pepco believes that an addition of 1000 MW comprising of five power plants to the generation system by the end of current month would help ease five and eight hour daily load shedding in urban and rural areas respectively. But even after incorporating the additional 1000 MW, the numbers published on PPIB and Pepcos own websites have a different story to tell.
Going by PPIBs figures, Pakistan faces power shortage of only 216 MW. This implies that the additional 1000 MW promised by Pepco would be good enough to not only cater the current requirement but also have surplus electricity. Bear in mind that PPIB estimates have no mention of the rental power capacities currently in operation, which means that the country is already in power surplus.
But, these claims are in stark contrast to what Pepco has to say, as it believes the shortfall to be 2500 MW, defying its very own statement regarding much reduced trouble by the month end. And, as if it wasn enough, Raja Pervez Ashraf threw another piece of number in an already muddled scenario - citing the current shortfall to be as high as 3500 MW. He is probably stuck back in those hot summer days when he used to quote this number time and again for the shortfall back then.
It probably reflects the ministrys desperation to move forward with the hastily arranged controversial rental power plants. The disappointment of treasury benches over the criticism on RPPs is echoed even in the Prime Minister house, as Yousuf Raza Gilani showed his dissent over media criticism on RPPs that according to him has deepened the power crisis as investors have distanced themselves from the projects.
Going forward, water availability which is currently one of the major reasons of power shortfall could aggravate the problem further as acute water shortage is feared for the upcoming season. Gas shortage also has its share in the delay of IPPs, but this one is a short term problem and would likely be resolved come March 2010.
What is worrisome is the fact that nobody seems to be concerned about the root cause of the problem i.e. the inefficiency in the system. One hopes the US assistance related to improvement in infrastructure of energy sector through KLB is invested properly - if done, it would solve lot of the power issues and would certainly save the falling grace of the power ministry.
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