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BR Research

Pakistan: still under a bygone sun

Published January 1, 2010 Updated January 1, 2010 12:00am

Outside Pakistan it may be 2010, but inside this headline making South Asian state, it still seems like the 90s.
Although, the politicians aren playing musical chairs in parliament as they did in the lost decade, the faces, by and large, are the same, and so are their antics. Few months ago they were arguing over the Charter of Democracy - today it is the National Reconciliation Ordinance - tomorrow it would likely be the clipping of presidential powers, and followed by some other personal politics the day after.
Economic picture in the meanwhile remains reminiscent of the past. The nuclear power state, which desperately needs electric power, runs the risk of running into the debt trap of the 90s as external debt-to-GDP ratio is seen rising to 35~36 percent, according to consensus forecasts, over the course of years.
Likewise, inflation is seen flirting with double-digits, as it did fifteen years ago, while growth in economic output eases back to an average of 2-3 percent, after averaging between 6-7 percent over the last few years.
The institutions are as weak as ever, with public-sector entities being filled with politically influenced appointments on the pretext of peoples representation. And despite having experimented with a local government system under President Musharrafs regime, the bureaucracy remains effectively inefficient. Mismanagement of basic food supplies is a reoccurring feature, with newspapers making headlines such as Crushed by Poverty as more and more ordinary folks die in search of food.
Whats different however is that the relationship with the United States has become warmer - mostly because Pakistan is running a war against the militants (previously called Mujahedeen) it created on Uncle Sams behest to dismantle the Soviet Union.
But quite ironically the war against terrorism seems to be pushing the country further behind the 90s instead of pushing it forward - albeit, at least its better than being bombed back to the Stone Age.
Yet, looking back as curtains draw over 2009, one thing seems to have dominated the plane of socio-economic and public policy in Pakistan: i.e. accountability.
The annulment of the legal amnesty, NRO, given to the politicians, bureaucrats and industrialists against alleged charges of corruption, the heightened state of vigilance on part of Competition Commission of Pakistan, the aggressiveness of revenue department under Finance Minster Shaukat Tarin and the growing independence of private media - all point towards bringing perpetrators into the limelight.
Thankfully, this crash course moral cleansing has so far come without any sort of bloodshed. Its as if the system is cleaning itself - perhaps thanks to the invisible hand - generating hopes that somehow the coming year would be better than the last. But, then, such hopes quickly turn forlorn when you realize that you began your New Year in the name of a strike.

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