Doing more may mean doing less for economy

The message from the west is clear: do more. Although, Pakistani officials have rebuffed U.K demands to do more to "break" the al-Qaeda terrorist network, the theme is visible across the Atlantic as well.
Unveiling his long awaited Afghan policy, US President Barack Obama said, "We have made it clear that we cannot tolerate a safe haven for terrorists whose location is known and whose intentions are clear" - a message that some defence experts say points to Pakistan.
Following the announcement, the Washington Post ran a story where the paper cited a senior adviser who said this: the question Obama faced was "how good is good enough . and the president came up with an answer for that; "doing more".
The strategy, which would cost an additional $30 billion in the first year, is mainly to increase troops by 30,000 taking the total number of US troops to more than 100,000 by July next year.
But media reports suggest that Obama has also signed off on a plan to expand C.I.A. activities in Pakistan. The plan calls for more strikes against militants by drone aircraft and sending additional spies to Pakistan. The expanded operations, reports suggest, could also include drone strikes in Balochistan.
Commenting on these developments, Prime Minister Gilani has been spot on: "our fear is that if they increase troops ... the militants might spill over to Pakistan, - a trend that has been seen time and again since 2001, with both the war and the militants gradually shifting inside Pakistan through Af-Pak border.
Bottom-line for Pakistan: both doing more in the war and increased U.S presence in Afghanistan mean doing less for economy, which is already incurring a cost of more than $8.5 billion a year on military campaign, according to a statement made by finance minister Shaukat Tarin earlier this year.
Not only would Pakistan require additional money to deal with the spillover but the drone attacks in Balochistan can dilute, if not potentially derail, the confidence building process taken by the federal government. Moreover, CIAs deeper penetration as proposed by the US administration can create a sense of overall political disharmony within the country.
So with lawmakers focused elsewhere, the economy will quite naturally take a backseat. Fighting in the north western belt has already forced the London-based Tullow Oil Limited to give up operational control of drilling operations near Orakzai agency. And if the contagion spreads any further - although it seems contained for now - it will make it hard for authorities to woo foreign companies to invest in the country.
In the absence of FDI, which despite gradual improvement in world business outlook is likely to remain sluggish across the globe, according to the latest UNCTAD Global Investment Monitor - the outlook of Pakistans economy looks even grimmer.
Higher risks and the potential increase in the cost of war after Americas latest Afghan policy might require the Friends of Democratic Pakistan forum - including Uncle Sam - to help more as well. But then, the fact that Pakistan has so far received only a pittance of the forums pledged amount creates doubts over their commitment to provide assistance.