The dollar had jumped on safe-haven demand a day earlier when US President Donald Trump indicated the Iran conflict would drag on.

The spot yuan opened at 6.8930 per dollar on Friday and was last trading 37 pips firmer than the previous late-session close.

Prior to the market opening, the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.8929 per dollar, 45 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate. The spot yuan is allowed to trade 2% either side of the fixed midpoint each day.

 The dollar stabilised on Friday after rising on Thursday as Trump’s threat to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Age” heightened risks in a war now in its fifth week, dimming hopes for a swift resolution to a conflict squeezing oil supplies and stoking inflation.

The outbreak of war in the Middle East has supported safe-haven demand for the dollar, and the yuan has moved into a consolidation phase after strengthening sharply in the first quarter of 2026 on the back of twin surpluses in trade and foreign-exchange settlement, analysts at Zijin Tianfeng Futures said in a note.

Growth in China’s services activity slowed in March from February’s 33-month high, as softer demand and a decline in overseas orders weighed on momentum, a private-sector survey showed on Friday. This came after the official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion in March, suggesting limited impact from the Iran conflict.

The yuan is likely to remain resilient in the second quarter, supported by China’s high energy self-sufficiency rate, sizable strategic reserves and growing renewables demand, analysts at MUFG said.

Meanwhile, liquidity remains ample in onshore money markets. The weighted average rate of China’s seven-day repo traded in the interbank market fell to 1.3119%, the lowest since August 8, 2022.

Investors are watching closely for the US non-farm payrolls data, which could affect the dollar-yuan pair.

 The offshore yuan traded at 6.8846 yuan per dollar, up about 0.1% in Asian trade.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was 0.058% higher at 100.04.

Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran in the next two to three weeks during his televised speech on Wednesday, offering no concrete timeline to open the Strait of Hormuz or end a war that has rattled investors and roiled markets.

Iran’s military responded with a warning for the US and Israel of “more crushing, broader and more destructive” attacks in store.

The US dollar rose, even against other safe-haven currencies including the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

The dollar strengthened 0.67 percent to 0.8 against the Swiss franc.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was up 0.32 percent at 159.29, nearing the psychologically important 160 level that sparks investor worries of intervention by Japanese authorities.

“In the last couple of days there was a bit of optimism that the war was going to end soon and President Trump’s address to the nation yesterday sort of undermined that hope,” said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

“There’s nothing new that he said; it’s just that he didn’t provide any kind of morsels to feed the hope. I think this is the only fundamental right now that matters. If you think the war is going to end soon, you buy risk. If you think that it’s not going to end soon, you sell risk.”

The euro fell 0.38 percent to USD1.155150 while sterling slid 0.50 percent to USD1.32410, with both giving up some recent gains.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, climbed 0.35 percent to 99.92.

Brent crude futures rose almost 5.4 percent to USD106.66 per barrel, after Trump’s address sparked fresh concerns about sustained disruption.

Trump’s comments had initially sent US Treasury yields higher but they have since pared those gains. The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell 2.2 basis points to 4.297 percent.

Investors are also eyeing Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for economic signals and a possible path to Federal Reserve interest rates. The market is looking for a 60,000 rise in jobs for March, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

The Australian dollar

weakened 0.19 percent versus the greenback to USD0.6912. The euro strengthened 0.27 percent against the Swiss franc to 0.923.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.86 percent to USD66,907.41. Ethereum declined 3.65 percent to USD2,065.24.

========================
Open Bid       Rs 279.32
Open Offer     Rs 280.18
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Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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Open Bid       Rs 279.11
Open Offer     Rs 279.31
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Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

=========================================================================
CURRENCY            BUYING   SELLING   CURRENCY           BUYING  SELLING
=========================================================================
USD                 279.32   280.18    AED                75.95     76.87
EURO                320.82   324.41    SAR                74.22     75.00
GBP ^               368.05   372.36    INTERBANK         279.15    279.25
JPY                                                        1.73      1.80
=========================================================================

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

======================================================================================
Apr 2, 2026
======================================================================================
                                Currency units per SDR           SDR per Currency unit
======================================================================================
Currency                        01-Apr-26      31-Mar-26      30-Mar-26      27-Mar-26
======================================================================================
Chinese yuan                     0.106585       0.106744       0.106558       0.106475
Euro                              0.85079       0.847691       0.845783        0.84766
Japanese yen                   0.00461549     0.00461359     0.00460334      0.0046136
U.K. pound                       0.975165       0.973061       0.974374       0.977639
U.S. dollar                      0.733124       0.737251       0.736488       0.736008
Algerian dinar                 0.00552353     0.00553371     0.00553362     0.00553492
Australian dollar                               0.504648       0.505894       0.508655
Botswana pula                   0.0551309      0.0549252      0.0550157      0.0549798
Brazilian real                   0.142078       0.141268       0.140693        0.14054
Brunei dollar                    0.570037       0.570937       0.571985       0.572591
Canadian dollar                  0.527883       0.528912       0.528858       0.530456
Chilean peso                  0.000790464    0.000791407    0.000792008    0.000797193
Czech koruna                                   0.0345592      0.0344185        0.03453
Danish krone                     0.113855       0.113434       0.113182       0.113443
Indian rupee                                                                0.00778031
Israeli New Shekel                              0.232939       0.232331       0.233728
Korean won                    0.000479009    0.000487149    0.000488355    0.000488652
Kuwaiti dinar                     2.38997        2.40186        2.39937
Malaysian ringgit                0.181691       0.182601       0.183138       0.183658
Mauritian rupee                 0.0156079      0.0156168      0.0156094      0.0156306
Mexican peso                    0.0411597      0.0409509      0.0406825      0.0407384
New Zealand dollar               0.421656       0.421966       0.422192       0.423683
Norwegian krone                 0.0759093      0.0756023      0.0755295      0.0757615
Omani rial                                       1.91743
Peruvian sol                     0.210305       0.211854       0.211574       0.212842
Philippine peso                 0.0120822      0.0121378      0.0121961       0.012223
Polish zloty                     0.198292       0.197084       0.197678        0.19782
Qatari riyal                     0.201408       0.202541       0.202332
Saudi Arabian riyal                0.1955         0.1966       0.196397
Singapore dollar                 0.570037       0.570937       0.571985       0.572591
Swedish krona                   0.0781402      0.0774642      0.0775521      0.0779243
Swiss franc                                     0.920413       0.921301       0.922894
Thai baht                       0.0224671      0.0224197      0.0224327      0.0223881
Trinidadian dollar               0.108704       0.109362                      0.109062
U.A.E. dirham                    0.199625       0.200749       0.200541
Uruguayan peso                  0.0180849      0.0182127      0.0181285      0.0181462
======================================================================================

NOTES

(1) The value of the U.S. dollar in terms of the SDR is the recip rocal of the sum of the dollar values, based on market exchange rates, of specified quant ities of the first four currencies shown. See SDR Valuation.

The value in terms of the SDR of each of the other currencies shown above is derived from that currency’s representative exchange rate against the U.S. dollar as reported by the issuing central bank and the SDR value of the U.S. dollar, except for the Iranian rial and the Libyan dinar, the values of which are officially expressed directly in terms of domestic currency units per SDR. All figures are rounded to six significant digits. See Representative Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies.

(2) The value in terms of each national currency of the SDR is the reciprocal of the value in terms of the SDR of each national currency, rounded to six significant digits.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

The rupee rallied to a peak of 92.8350 per U.S. dollar, bouncing back sharply from a record low of 95.21 hit in the previous session. The currency closed at 93.10, up 1.8% on the day.

It’s been more than a decade since the rupee surged by a comparable magnitude, in September 2013, after emergency measures by the Reserve Bank of India helped steady the currency and an unexpected reprieve in the Federal Reserve’s tapering program brought the currency relief.

Then, as now, investors were concerned about India’s current account deficit widening to unsustainable levels amid global headwinds and capital outflows.

Since Friday, India’s central bank has taken measures to curb arbitrage and speculative trades that bet against the rupee. The moves are aimed to soothe worries around risks to India’s external balances as the war in the Middle East continues to roil global markets and energy importing economies.

The RBI late on Wednesday barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients and said companies cannot re-book cancelled forwards. The move followed tighter limits on banks’ FX positions in the onshore market.

These steps sparked chunky dollar sales in the local forex market, helping shore up the rupee while widening the spread between the onshore and non-deliverable forwards, underlining the impact on hedging costs.

Heightened volatility in the forwards market on Thursday prompted the Clearing Corporation of India to impose additional margin requirements on such trades.

“RBI seems quite serious to follow through on new regulations to control INR weakness. Further policy changes by RBI and the India government to manage INR weakness could be likely,” said Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG.

Oil prices rose again on Thursday while local stocks slipped after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, dimming hopes for de-escalation in the Iran war.

• At 0635 GMT, the rand traded at 17.0250 against the dollar, 1.3% weaker than its previous close.
• In a prime-time address to the nation late on Wednesday, Trump said the United States would carry out aggressive strikes on Iran over the next two to three weeks and was nearing “completion of its main strategic objectives” in the conflict.
• This pushed the US dollar and oil prices higher, dampening demand for emerging market currencies and fuelling inflation concerns in net energy importers like South Africa.
• The rand has been at the mercy of global market sentiment since the US and Israel started the war at the end of February and Iran retaliated.
• The local currency had a strong 2025 and had started 2026 on the front foot, making it vulnerable to a correction, analysts say.
• South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond was flat in early deals, with the yield at 8.885%.‑Reuters

At 0201 GMT, the baht was 0.34% lower at 32.73 versus the dollar, after trading in a range of 32.530 to 32.775.

It ended the previous session at 32.62 per dollar, as per LSEG data.

US President Donald Trump told the nation in a televised speech on Wednesday night that the conflict would soon be ending, but also that the US military would continue to pound the country for the next two to three weeks.

He also said the US did not need the Strait of Hormuz and that it would open “naturally” once the conflict ended.

The effective closure of the strategically vital waterway has cut off millions of barrels in oil, along with fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and many other products, to global markets.

Brent crude prices jumped 3.7% on worries the strait would remain under the control of Iran, darkening the outlook for the world economy and undermining the growth-exposed Antipodeans.

The Aussie quickly slipped 0.6% to $0.6882, undoing a 0.4% bounce overnight.

Major support lies at the 10-week low of $0.6834, and a break of that would resume the retreat toward $0.6700.

The kiwi dollar fell 0.5% to $0.5720, having stalled at $0.5777 overnight.

A breach of $0.5698 would risk a slide to $0.5580.

Even if the war were to end in a few weeks, the inflationary wave from energy costs is already in the pipeline, with rising costs for petrol, jet fuel, shipping, fertiliser and food.

“We cannot keep assuming the ‘best-case scenario’ for the conflict, so we have cut our growth forecasts for 2026, but upwardly revised our inflation and rates forecasts,” said Josh Williamson, chief Australian economist at Citi.

He sees the economy growing 2.0% this year, instead of 2.6%, while consumer price inflation is seen spiking to 5.5% and core inflation to 3.9%, well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target band of 2% to 3%.

“With stagflation risks rising, we now forecast another 25bp hike from the RBA in June, in addition to the 25bp hike expected in May,” he added.

“This takes our terminal to 4.6% in 2026, with rate cuts still expected in 2027.”

Markets imply around a 70% chance of a quarter-point increase in the 4.1% cash rate at the RBA’s next meeting in May, and a peak at 4.6% by September.

 Trump said the US military had nearly completed the goals it had set out to accomplish in its war with Iran and that the conflict would soon be ending. But the president vowed to keep hitting Iran “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” unnerving markets.

 “We have no additional certainty or clarity around timeline from this address and this is what the market was looking for,” said Jon Withaar, senior portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management.

“The fact that we can expect 2-3 more weeks of action, boots on the ground were not ruled out and that threats to hit infrastructure were reiterated will put the market back on the defensive, particularly as we come into the long weekend.”

The dollar advanced on safe-haven buying following Trump’s speech and pressured other major currencies, including the yuan. The onshore yuan eased to 6.8850 per dollar as of 0303 GMT from a three-week high of 6.8708 hit a day earlier.

Its offshore counterpart fetched 6.8879 per dollar.

The dent to global risk appetite outweighed a much strengthened official guidance rate set by the central bank. Prior to market opening, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint at 6.8750 per dollar, the strongest fix since April 25, 2023.

Despite the geopolitical turmoil, the yuan remains one of the best performing emerging market currencies since the Middle East war erupted in late February, down about 0.5% versus the dollar, which has rallied about 2.4% during the same period.

“China is widely viewed as relatively insulated from oil-price shocks,” analysts at UOB said in a note.

They maintained their forecast for a steadily strengthening yuan this year to trade at 6.95, 6.90 and 6.85 at the end of the second-, third-quarter and year-end, respectively.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 92.65-92.70 range versus the US dollar, having settled at 94.83 on Monday.

India’s financial markets were shut on Tuesday and Wednesday for local holidays.

On ​Wednesday, the RBI announced measures marking a step-up in its efforts to support the currency, barring banks from offering rupee ​non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients and preventing companies from rebooking cancelled forward contracts.

The move to ⁠curb arbitrage and speculative trading comes at a time when the local currency is already under ​pressure from worries over India’s balance of payments amid elevated oil prices and weak capital flows.

Rupee had slipped to an all-time low of ​95.23 on Monday even after the central bank moved to limit banks’ net open foreign-exchange positions in the onshore markets.

“Banks that had not yet cleared out arbitrage positions will be in a rush so the gap between onshore and offshore ​markets will expand further,” an FX trader at a foreign bank said, referring to ​the spread between onshore prices and non-deliverable forward points.

Globally, markets were taking cues from US President Donald Trump’s remarks that Washington’s “core ‌strategic ⁠objectives” in the Iran war were nearing completion but offered no clear timeline for an end to the conflict.

Brent crude oil prices climbed nearly 5%, stocks fell and the dollar strengthened as investors braced for the war to extend another two to three weeks after Trump said the US.would strike Iran “extremely ​hard.”

Analysts reckon that worries ​over the war and ⁠weakness in portfolio flows could keep the rupee biased towards further weakness.

“We continue to see the Indian rupee as vulnerable,” MUFG said, warning the ​currency could fall below 95 if the Middle East conflict persists ​and the Strait ⁠of Hormuz remains closed.

In Trump’s national address, the president said conflict ​in Iran would soon be ending, but the US military would continue to hit targets ​there over the next two to three weeks.

The dollar index , which measures ⁠the greenback against a basket of currencies, climbed to a high of 99.925 after the ​speech. It last traded up 0.3% at 99.861.

The greenback has benefited from a rush to safe-haven assets since the conflict ​began in late February.

Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the markets’ most popular trades earlier this week and put the greenback on a two-day decline.

“Trump’s comments failed to reassure markets … ​markets are starting to realize that the war will probably escalate further from here before ​de-escalating,” said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

“The dollar can definitely increase further ‌from here ⁠against all the major currencies” as markets wake up to the fact that the global economy will just slow down materially from here, she added.

The euro stood at $1.1554 and the sterling fetched $1.3254 , both down roughly 0.3% versus the dollar after the speech to give up some recent gains.

The risk-sensitive Australian ​dollar and the New ​Zealand dollar were ⁠both down roughly 0.6%, trading at $0.68865 and $0.5719, respectively.

The Japanese yen traded weaker at 159.25 , but it was still away from the psychologically important 160 level that is ​viewed as the line in the sand for intervention by Japanese authorities.

Now that ​the speech ⁠is over, attention will turn to Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.

The market is looking for a 60,000 rise in jobs for March, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

A sharp ⁠deterioration in ​the labor market could revive expectations for rate cuts ​from the Federal Reserve this year, which have been largely priced out as sharply rising oil prices due to the Iran ​war have stoked inflation concerns.

President Donald Trump said in a Reuters interview that the US will end its war on Iran fairly soon and could return for “spot hits” if needed. He had earlier said in a Truth Social post that Iran’s new leader asked for a ceasefire.

Trump is scheduled to address the nation “to provide an important update on Iran” at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

The US dollar has benefited from a safe-haven bid since the conflict began in late February. Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the markets’ most popular trades.

The dollar pulled back from this year’s high of 160.47 per dollar against the Japanese yen, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit its highest level in a week.

The euro edged up 0.63 percent versus the dollar to USD1.1621, on track for the second consecutive session of gains.

The dollar was down 0.16 percent to 158.45 against the Japanese yen. Sterling strengthened 0.78 percent to USD1.3310.

“What’s going on now with the reversal and the risk to a degree is not surprising because of how dislocated everything got,” said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey.

The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.37 percent at 99.353.

Still, attacks continued to take place on multiple fronts on Wednesday, with drones hitting fuel tanks at Kuwait’s international airport, while Qatar said an oil tanker was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters.

Oil prices slid, with Brent crude futures dropping 2.44 percent and were last trading at about USD101.50.

========================
Open Bid       Rs 279.12
Open Offer     Rs 279.32
========================

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

=========================================================================
CURRENCY            BUYING   SELLING   CURRENCY           BUYING  SELLING
=========================================================================
USD $               279.36   280.18    AED                75.96     76.86
EURO                322.39   325.63    SAR                74.23     75.00
GBP                 369.64   373.53    INTERBANK         279.15    279.25
JPY                                                        1.74      1.80
=========================================================================

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

======================================================================================
Apr 1, 2026
======================================================================================
                                Currency units per SDR           SDR per Currency unit
======================================================================================
Currency                        31-Mar-26      30-Mar-26      27-Mar-26      26-Mar-26
======================================================================================
Chinese yuan                     0.106744       0.106558       0.106475       0.106521
Euro                             0.847691       0.845783        0.84766       0.848575
Japanese yen                    0.0046136      0.0046033      0.0046136      0.0046127
U.K. pound                       0.973061       0.974374       0.977639        0.97999
U.S. dollar                      0.737251       0.736488       0.736008       0.735397
Algerian dinar                  0.0055337      0.0055336      0.0055349      0.0055456
Australian dollar                0.504648       0.505894       0.508655       0.511469
Botswana pula                   0.0549252      0.0550157      0.0549798      0.0550812
Brazilian real                   0.141268       0.140693        0.14054       0.140606
Brunei dollar                    0.570937       0.571985       0.572591       0.573588
Canadian dollar                  0.528912       0.528858       0.530456       0.531203
Chilean peso                    0.0007914       0.000792      0.0007972      0.0008047
Czech koruna                    0.0345592      0.0344185        0.03453      0.0346755
Danish krone                     0.113434       0.113182       0.113443       0.113568
Indian rupee                                   0.0077803
Israeli New Shekel               0.232939       0.232331       0.233728       0.235026
Korean won                      0.0004871      0.0004884      0.0004887      0.0004917
Kuwaiti dinar                     2.40186        2.39937                       2.39816
Malaysian ringgit                0.182601       0.183138       0.183658       0.184102
Mauritian rupee                 0.0156168      0.0156094      0.0156306      0.0156748
Mexican peso                    0.0409509      0.0406825      0.0407384      0.0413244
New Zealand dollar               0.421966       0.422192       0.423683       0.426751
Norwegian krone                 0.0756023      0.0755295      0.0757615      0.0762662
Omani rial                        1.91743
Peruvian sol                     0.211854       0.211574       0.212842       0.212604
Philippine peso                 0.0121378      0.0121961       0.012223      0.0122552
Polish zloty                     0.197084       0.197678        0.19782       0.199036
Qatari riyal                     0.202541       0.202332                      0.202032
Saudi Arabian riyal                0.1966       0.196397                      0.196106
Singapore dollar                 0.570937       0.571985       0.572591       0.573588
Swedish krona                   0.0774642      0.0775521      0.0779243      0.0782782
Swiss franc                      0.920413       0.921301       0.922894       0.926776
Thai baht                       0.0224197      0.0224327      0.0223881      0.0224282
Trinidadian dollar               0.109362                      0.109062       0.108748
U.A.E. dirham                    0.200749       0.200541                      0.200244
Uruguayan peso                  0.0182127      0.0181285      0.0181462      0.0181074
======================================================================================

NOTES

(1) The value of the U.S. dollar in terms of the SDR is the recip rocal of the sum of the dollar values, based on market exchange rates, of specified quant ities of the first four currencies shown. See SDR Valuation.

The value in terms of the SDR of each of the other currencies shown above is derived from that currency’s representative exchange rate against the U.S. dollar as reported by the issuing central bank and the SDR value of the U.S. dollar, except for the Iranian rial and the Libyan dinar, the values of which are officially expressed directly in terms of domestic currency units per SDR. All figures are rounded to six significant digits. See Representative Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies.

(2) The value in terms of each national currency of the SDR is the reciprocal of the value in terms of the SDR of each national currency, rounded to six significant digits.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

========================
Open Bid       Rs 279.36
Open Offer     Rs 280.18
========================

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

It ended the previous session at 32.56 per dollar, as per LSEG data.

The Aussie firmed 0.2% to $0.6915, having bounced from a 10-week trough of $0.6834 overnight. A break above $0.6945 was needed to improve a bearish technical background.

The kiwi dollar steadied at $0.5746, after also edging up from a 10-week low of $0.5698 overnight.

It needs to get above $0.5765 to be on steadier footing. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said the United States could end its military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks, and plans to address the nation on the war later on Wednesday.

That sparked speculation he would announce some sort of wind-down in the conflict, even as the US navy is reportedly dispatching another carrier group to the region.

Yet oil prices were rising anew on worries the US could withdraw without securing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively leaving the world’s most critical oil chokepoint under Iranian control.

“The conflict still means that inflation stays higher for longer as prices take time to normalise from the shock but also because there has been some permanent damage to energy facilities,” said Diana Mousina, deputy chief economist at AMP.

“For Australia it means more interest rate increases, as Australian inflation was already too high before the conflict started,” she added.

“We are expecting another rise in May, and see a risk of another hike in the second half of the year.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted rates to 4.10% in March and minutes of the meeting showed the coming energy shock loomed large in discussions.

Markets imply around a 65% chance the RBA could hike again at its next meeting on May 5, but have lowered the expected peak to 4.66% from 4.75% early in the week.

Investors have also pared back the probability of an early hike in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 2.25% cash rate.

The RBNZ’s next meeting is on April 8 and is considered certain to hold steady while citing the uncertainty caused by the war.

A move in May is now implied at 25%, down from 60% at the end of last week, while July is at 68% from being almost fully priced.

The yen has recovered from this year’s low of 160.46 per dollar, moving back through the psychologically important 160 level that had fanned concerns of intervention by Japanese authorities.

The euro hit more than ​a one-week high.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the ​euro, fell 0.03% to 99.70, with the euro up 0.21% at $1.1576.

War in the Middle East: latest developments

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.11% against ⁠the greenback to 158.55 per dollar. The yen was steady after the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey showed business sentiment among ​large Japanese manufacturers improved in the three months to March, a sign that increasing economic uncertainty from the Middle East conflict ​has yet to hit morale.

Sterling strengthened 0.21% to $1.3247.

Thai baht/US dollar weaker on Tuesday

The greenback has benefited from a safe-haven bid since the conflict began in late February, and the US, a net energy exporter, is also relatively better positioned to handle oil disruptions than other nations.

Trump said on Tuesday the US could end its military campaign ‌against Iran ⁠within two to three weeks.

His comment followed a Wall Street Journal report a day earlier saying the US president told aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping artery remains largely closed with unclear plans to get it reopened at a later date.

The said Trump would address the nation “to ​provide an important update on ​Iran” at 9 p.m. EDT ⁠on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).

At the same time, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the next few days in the war against Iran would be decisive and warned Tehran that the conflict ​would intensify if it did not make a deal, pointing to signs of escalation in ​the conflict.

This week’s ⁠main US economic focus will be Friday’s jobs report for March. It is expected to show that employers added 60,000 jobs during the month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, following an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs in February.

A sharp ⁠deterioration in ​the labor market would likely revive expectations for Fed rate cuts this year, ​which have been largely priced out as rising oil prices from the Iran war stoke inflation concerns.

The Australian dollar strengthened 0.35% versus the greenback to $0.6924.

New Zealand’s kiwi strengthened ​0.19% versus the greenback to $0.5756.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.03% to $68,177.08. Ethereum declined 0.08% to $2,103.76.

The Nifty 50 fell 2.14 percent a near one-year low of 22,331.4 on Monday and the BSE Sensex slid 2.22 percent to 71,947.55, its lowest in over two years, with the benchmarks logging their biggest monthly slump in six years as the Iran war drove crude prices higher and stoked growth worries.

The Indian rupee closed largely flat versus the US dollar to 94.83, closing out a rough fiscal year for the South Asian currency, in which trade frictions, geopolitics and weak capital flows pummeled the currency.

The benchmark 10-year bond closed at 96.2 rupees, with the yield up 9 bps at 7.0345 percent.

US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and leave a complex operation to reopen it for a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing administration officials. Meanwhile, Tehran attacked and set ablaze a fully loaded oil tanker off Dubai on Tuesday, and Trump told countries that had not helped in the conflict to find “some delayed courage” to take the Strait of Hormuz and get their own oil.

“Even though we’ve had a variety of headlines out overnight, it’s difficult to keep track of who’s saying what and exactly what the implications of some of these comments are,” said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank.

Osborne views the dollar as overvalued but expects it to remain supported as long as war concerns continue to weigh on risk appetite and the VIX stays elevated.

“Markets are concerned that it might go on for longer, that the conflict could broaden, and the aftershocks could be significant and long-lasting. There’s still a lot of uncertainty here about where we actually land on this,” he said.

The dollar has benefited from a safe-haven bid since the conflict began in late February. The United States is also relatively better positioned to handle oil disruptions than peers as a net energy exporter.

Trading on Tuesday was also likely influenced by investors repositioning for month- and quarter-end. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.56 percent at 100.00. It is headed for a 2.5 percent monthly gain, the best since July, and a 1.85 percent return for the first quarter. The euro gained 0.59 percent to USD1.1532.

It is facing a 2.5 percent monthly decline, the worst since July and a 1.9 percent quarterly loss, the worst since Q3 2024. The pound strengthened 0.56 percent to USD1.326. It is on track for a 1.75 percent monthly loss, the worst since October, and 1.65 percent quarterly drop.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.37 percent against the greenback to 159.1 per dollar. The dollar is on pace for a 2 percent monthly gain against the Japanese currency and a 1.6 percent quarterly increase. The Japanese yen rebounded for a second day after Japanese officials stepped up threats to intervene in the currency to stem recent weakness.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama on Tuesday repeated Tokyo’s readiness to respond “on all fronts” against volatile moves. Katayama also labelled recent yen falls as speculative for the first time since the Middle East war began, shifting focus back to currency short-sellers as policymakers braced for a triple market selloff driven by fresh inflationary concerns.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.19 percent to USD67,386.

=========================================================================
CURRENCY            BUYING   SELLING   CURRENCY           BUYING  SELLING
=========================================================================
USD $               279.48   280.22    AED                75.93     76.85
EURO                319.17   322.67    SAR                74.20     75.00
GBP                 367.85   372.02    INTERBANK         279.20    279.30
JPY                                                        1.73      1.79
=========================================================================

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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Mar 31, 2026
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                                Currency units per SDR           SDR per Currency unit
======================================================================================
Currency                        30-Mar-26      27-Mar-26      26-Mar-26      25-Mar-26
======================================================================================
Chinese yuan                     0.106558       0.106475       0.106521       0.106214
Euro                             0.845783        0.84766       0.848575       0.849554
Japanese yen                   0.00460334      0.0046136     0.00461266     0.00462006
U.K. pound                       0.974374       0.977639        0.97999       0.983305
U.S. dollar                      0.736488       0.736008       0.735397        0.73288
Algerian dinar                 0.00553362     0.00553492     0.00554563     0.00553747
Australian dollar                0.505894       0.508655       0.511469       0.511111
Botswana pula                   0.0550157      0.0549798      0.0550812       0.054966
Brazilian real                   0.140693        0.14054       0.140606       0.140213
Brunei dollar                    0.571985       0.572591       0.573588       0.573055
Canadian dollar                  0.528858       0.530456       0.531203       0.531034
Chilean peso                  0.000792008    0.000797193    0.000804742    0.000800297
Czech koruna                    0.0344185        0.03453      0.0346755      0.0347485
Danish krone                     0.113182       0.113443       0.113568       0.113702
Indian rupee                                  0.00778031                    0.00779944
Israeli New Shekel               0.232331       0.233728       0.235026        0.23535
Korean won                    0.000488355    0.000488652    0.000491707    0.000489141
Kuwaiti dinar                     2.39937                       2.39816        2.39113
Malaysian ringgit                0.183138       0.183658       0.184102       0.185281
Mauritian rupee                 0.0156094      0.0156306      0.0156748       0.015698
Mexican peso                    0.0406825      0.0407384      0.0413244      0.0412779
New Zealand dollar               0.422192       0.423683       0.426751       0.427965
Norwegian krone                 0.0755295      0.0757615      0.0762662      0.0752784
Omani rial
Peruvian sol                     0.211574       0.212842       0.212604       0.212122
Philippine peso                 0.0121961       0.012223      0.0122552      0.0122298
Polish zloty                     0.197678        0.19782       0.199036       0.199136
Qatari riyal                     0.202332                      0.202032       0.201341
Saudi Arabian riyal              0.196397                      0.196106       0.195435
Singapore dollar                 0.571985       0.572591       0.573588       0.573055
Swedish krona                   0.0775521      0.0779243      0.0782782      0.0788706
Swiss franc                      0.921301       0.922894       0.926776       0.929108
Thai baht                       0.0224327      0.0223881      0.0224282      0.0224417
Trinidadian dollar                              0.109062       0.108748       0.108125
U.A.E. dirham                    0.200541                      0.200244       0.199559
Uruguayan peso                  0.0181285      0.0181462      0.0181074      0.0181155
======================================================================================

NOTES

(1) The value of the U.S. dollar in terms of the SDR is the recip rocal of the sum of the dollar values, based on market exchange rates, of specified quant ities of the first four currencies shown. See SDR Valuation.

The value in terms of the SDR of each of the other currencies shown above is derived from that currency’s representative exchange rate against the U.S. dollar as reported by the issuing central bank and the SDR value of the U.S. dollar, except for the Iranian rial and the Libyan dinar, the values of which are officially expressed directly in terms of domestic currency units per SDR. All figures are rounded to six significant digits. See Representative Exchange Rates for Selected Currencies.

(2) The value in terms of each national currency of the SDR is the reciprocal of the value in terms of the SDR of each national currency, rounded to six significant digits.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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Open Bid       Rs 279.15
Open Offer     Rs 279.35
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Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

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Open Bid       Rs 279.48
Open Offer     Rs 280.22
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Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

And, India’s largest private lender HDFC Bank is facing questions from ​investors after the sudden exit of its chairman. Scroll down for more on that.

The outsized losses came despite a late intervention by the central bank, which directed banks on Friday to cut net open rupee positions. The ​order triggered a sharp rebound on Monday as banks rapidly unwound trades, but looks unlikely to bring lasting relief.

Foreign investors have largely stayed away from India - even with its world‑beating 7.6% economic growth over the past ​12 months - deterred by a mix of high equity valuations, lack of AI‑linked stocks and punitive U.S. trade tariffs.

The already fragile backdrop has been further strained by the ⁠oil shock triggered by the Iran war, which has driven record monthly outflows from Indian equity and bond markets.

Bernstein expects the rupee to fall to 98 per dollar in its base case scenario, where the conflict in the Middle ​East concludes in less than a month. However, the investment research firm warned that if it lasts for all of 2026, the rupee will slide to 110.

India’s currency sank to a record low of 95.21 on Monday.

The rupee has also ​weakened versus regional peers, most notably the Chinese yuan, against which it has declined nearly 14% in the past 12 months.

Investment banks are recommending positions betting on further rupee underperformance versus Asian rivals, Reuters reporters Nimesh Vora and Jaspreet Kalra wrote.

Already weighed on by capital outflows, the oil shock means the rupee now faces a widening current account deficit, expected at 0.9% of GDP in the upcoming fiscal year.

J.P. Morgan forecasts this will widen to 1.5% of GDP if oil prices average $80 per barrel this year, and to 2.6% if ​they average $100.

THE CRISIS PLAYBOOK

Indian officials are dusting off crisis playbooks from 2013, when the rupee came under pressure from the so-called taper tantrum triggered by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

The government cut excise duties on petrol and diesel this month ​to shield consumers from an immediate rise in costs and to curb a potential spike in inflation, while protecting state-run fuel retailers from steep losses.

However, the expected hit to government revenues triggered the biggest spike in bond yields in nearly four years, adding ‌to the list ⁠of negatives for the rupee.

Tough decisions on “burden sharing” between the government, consumers and businesses may be needed, India’s chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran said in the monthly economic review published on Saturday.

He suggested that if higher prices are not passed through to end consumers at all, their continued strong demand could exacerbate inflationary pressures and force the central bank to tighten monetary policy.

“Higher interest rates burden the entire economy,” he said.

The central bank will announce its next monetary policy decision on April 8.

The monetary authority has so far managed market volatility with active but not unusual intervention in the currency and bond markets, although that has eaten into India’s forex reserves.

Reserves are currently enough to cover about 9.2 ​months of imports, adjusted for the central bank’s forward book, ​IDFC First Bank economist Gaura Sen Gupta said ⁠in a report last week.

That could fall to 7.2 months by March 2027 if the crisis persists, but would remain above the 6.5 months seen during the 2013 currency crisis, the report said.

Sen Gupta said the central bank may initially focus on measures to attract dollar flows - such as the recently liberalised rules for foreign borrowings by corporations - ​but a 2013-style subsidised swap scheme to draw deposits from non-resident Indians is not yet on the cards.

Veteran Indian banker Uday Kotak appeared to take the opposite ​view, posting on X: “If things get ⁠worse geopolitically, is there an opportunity for a new version of a foreign currency non-resident deposit scheme?”

India is once again diversifying its sources of oil due to supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Traders have offered Iranian oil to Indian refiners at a premium to ICE Brent after Washington temporarily removed sanctions to ease the energy crisis caused by the Iran war, Reuters reported.

India has not bought Iranian crude since May 2019.

The South Asian nation, which had pared imports of Russian oil during ⁠negotiations on a ​trade pact with the U.S., is also re-engaging with Moscow on energy purchases including liquefied natural gas.

THIS WEEK’S MUST-READ

The unexpected resignation of HDFC Bank ​Chairman Atanu Chakraborty this month triggered a $16 billion rout in shares of India’s largest private lender, but the story doesn’t end there, Reuters reported.

Frictions between Chakraborty and CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan had emerged publicly, but divisions within the bank’s management run deeper.

And those fissures, along with slow gains following ​a 2023 merger with its parent HDFC Ltd, have ramped up pressure on management.

The Aussie looked punch drunk at $0.6852, after falling for eight straight sessions to hit a two-month low of $0.6834.

That left it down 3.7% for March and under major support at $0.6897. The next bear target was $0.6766.

The kiwi dollar had recoiled to $0.5715, having shed 4.6% on the month so far to touch a four-month trough at $0.5700.

The next major chart bulwark is not until $0.5581.

The bleak economic outlook was underscored by minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last board meeting, where a razor-thin 5-4 vote saw it raise rates to a 10-month high of 4.10%. The hawks argued the war-driven spike in energy costs meant an immediate hike was needed, while the other four thought the threat to economic growth warranted a delay.

“The appropriate response will depend on how they weigh competing risks,” said Taylor Nugent, a senior economist at NAB.

“Given the extent of inflation pressure from the shock in the Middle East and the domestic starting point of above-target inflation capacity constraints, we expect one additional increase to the cash rate in May to a peak of 4.35%.”

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis caused a stir on Monday by tipping hikes in May, June and August, which would take rates to 4.85% and heights not seen since December 2008.

Investors are currently pricing a 58% chance the RBA will move in May, and imply around 60 basis points of total tightening left for 2026.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets next week and is thought near-certain to hold the official cash rate at 2.25% as it assesses the damage done by spiking energy prices.

Markets are almost fully priced for a hike by July and see rates nearing 3.0% by year-end.

“The RBNZ will balance a desire to avoid a further tightening of financial conditions with the desire to not sound complacent about the medium-term inflation risks,” said Kelly Eckhold, chief NZ economist at Westpac.

“That should continue to lean against the market’s current pricing of more than three 25bp OCR hikes by the end of this year.”

The yuan was 0.11% higher at 6.9053 per dollar by 0300 GMT, after trading in a range of 6.9016 to 6.9070.

The currency found support after official data showed Chinese factory activity grew at the fastest pace in a year in March, helped by firm global demand.

Yet the yuan is down 0.7% against the dollar this month, set to snap a seven-month rally.

The dollar is poised to record its biggest monthly gain since July.

While the yuan outperformed other oil-sensitive Asian currencies for the month, analysts said the prolonged Middle East conflict could start to weigh on the currency given broader risk aversion.

Prior to the market opening, the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.9194 per dollar, 15 pips firmer than a Reuters estimate.

The spot yuan is allowed to trade 2% either side of the fixed midpoint each day.

“We look for USDCNY to consolidate into the summer given Middle East uncertainties and usual poor CNY seasonality,” Barclays analysts said in a note.

The offshore yuan changed hands at 6.911 yuan per dollar , up about 0.08% in Asian trade.

The US dollar index eased slightly to 100.39.