According to the report, about an hour’s drive east of Karachi, the country’s economic hub, solar panels now cover rooftops across an industrial zone of about 400 companies at Port Qasim, alongside a coal-fired power station built as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

“There are solar panels almost everywhere one sees,” Zaheer Allana, owner of a packaging factory, told Bloomberg, where the rooftop is crowded with photovoltaic modules that generate about a fifth of the facility’s electricity needs. “We have utilised almost all available space… If we had space, we would take it to 100%.”

The panels deliver power at less than one-third of the electricity price, he said. “If we save on electricity, it is significant for us,” said Allana. “It all trickles down to the bottom line.”

Citing figures from Ember, an energy think tank, the report shared that solar accounted for about 20% of Pakistan’s electricity generation in 2025, up from roughly 3% at the start of the decade.

“High power costs, an unreliable grid and the availability of cheap panels — popularised through DIY installation tutorials on TikTok — made the nation China’s third-largest solar export market last year, and the equipment has become so ubiquitous that it’s now even being used as wedding dowry,” read the Bloomberg report.

The report, citing customs data, noted that Pakistan’s battery imports from China jumped almost 150% in the first half to a value of about $392 million.

“Every consumer who is opting out of the grid and going to solar is causing the burden to increase,” said Muhammad Mujahid, executive director of Lahore-based Innovo Corp., a clean technology importer that has supplied batteries, inverters and solar panels. “This is like a death spiral for all the utilities.”

However, the shift is reducing demand for grid-supplied electricity, putting further pressure on state-owned utilities and the Chinese companies operating coal-fired power plants, said Bloomberg.

Electricity consumption across Pakistan’s distribution companies was almost 12% lower in the 12 months to July 2025 than three years earlier, according to NEPRA data.

“No one knew that this dramatic and highly disruptive transition would happen so quickly,” said Mujahid. “I think the policymakers have been caught off guard.”

The report noted that the impact is particularly significant for Chinese-backed power projects. Overdue payments to Chinese electricity plants had risen to more than $1.5 billion by August, according to an official familiar with the details, while outstanding project debt tied to China-financed coal assets stood at $3.1 billion last year.

At the Port Qasim coal plant, overdue payments had reached almost $300 million in June, according to an official familiar with the matter. The plant is among seven coal-fired facilities China has delivered in Pakistan since 2017 at a cost of about $9.6 billion, the report stated.

When China was focused on the export of coal power, “Pakistan was the darling of that,” Kevin Gallagher, a professor of global development policy at Boston University and a co-author of China and the Global Economic Order, told Bloomberg. “Now they’re the darling of green, but the two don’t square.”

Pakistan’s Energy Minister Awais Leghari said Islamabad is seeking to extend the repayment period for the power-sector debt rather than seeking a reduction in the outstanding amounts.

“We are not expecting any haircuts in those terms and conditions,” Leghari told Bloomberg. “We are just expecting to, or have asked for, the debt to be extended over a longer period of time.”

Chinese officials have so far been unwilling to make major concessions on outstanding power-sector debt that could trigger losses for Chinese state-owned companies and banks, according to people familiar with the discussions. Potential solutions under consideration include refinancing and repurposing under-utilised power plants, it said.

As China looks to safeguard domestic supplies, state oil major PetroChina cancelled on Wednesday the majority of its gasoline and jet fuel shipmenets planned for October three of the sources said.

PetroChina H1 net profit jumps 22%, boosted by fuel sales, oil price spike

It had committed to most of the cancelled deals in the past two weeks, the three sources added.

Extending the package would help ensure energy security, stabilise the economy, contain inflation and support business activity, while allowing companies to diversify fuel import sources and reduce dependence on traditional suppliers, the government said in a statement on Thursday.

Under a resolution signed on September 30, reduced import tariffs on gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, jet fuel and key refinery feedstocks were extended to December 31.

The import tariff reductions include a cut in the preferential import duty on gasoline to 0% from 10%.

Fuel price hike rouses business community’s ire

Tariffs on diesel, fuel oil, kerosene and jet fuel remain at 0% instead of 7%, according to the government, and tariffs on several petrochemical feedstocks have also been reduced to zero.

An environmental protection tax rate and a value-added tax rate for gasoline and petroleum products will also remain at zero until the end of 2026.

The measures were initially introduced in March and have since been extended several times.‑Reuters

The new front-month December Brent crude futures contract traded at $101.06 per barrel at 1052 a.m. ET or 1452 GMT, up 3%, or $3.02, from Wednesday’s close. The November contract expired on Wednesday, settling at $103.50 per barrel, marking a monthly gain of around 14% in September for the front-month contract.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.67, or 1.9%, at $92.09 a barrel, having traded close to $93 earlier in the session.

Prices were volatile on Thursday, having slipped more than 1% in early trading before rebounding.

Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products to regions beyond Hong Kong and Macau until further notice, four people briefed on the matter said on Thursday, a move that will further crimp war-constrained fuel markets. A global diesel shortage fueled by the wars in Iran and Ukraine is unlikely to ease before next year, according to storage market indicators and industry participants.

Iran Guards say seized US underwater drone in Hormuz

“The Chinese export ban suggests concerns about domestic product availability,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, adding that it remains to be seen whether the measures will support higher crude imports after recent drawdowns in Chinese crude and fuel stocks.

Global diesel supplies have tightened as a result of falling refining capacity due to attacks linked to the Middle East and Ukraine wars, raising pressure on governments to intervene to shield consumers.

“China’s pause removes a source of flexible supply at a particularly difficult moment. Middle Eastern disruptions have already reduced the availability of refined products, so importers have fewer alternatives,” said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree.

The Trump administration has told Germany and France to draw down emergency diesel inventories to help ease global fuel prices or face a potential US diesel export ban, three people close to the discussions said.

Product margins

European diesel refinery profit margins were trading at around $78.22 per barrel at 1145 GMT, down about 6% from the previous session. The margin hit an all-time high of $95 per barrel on September 23.

Asia’s gasoline margin rose to a record high of $50.53 per barrel over Brent crude on Thursday after various outages at regional refineries and China’s fuel exports ban, traders said.

Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu

Investors continued to watch diplomacy efforts and oil exports in the Middle East.

Iran is preparing a broader and more forceful response if the US resumes large-scale military attacks, sources said, while continuing a diplomatic push that Iranian officials privately see as unlikely to succeed.

Offering some relief to markets was news that Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from Yanbu after earlier restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs estimated Gulf oil exports, including “dark exports” involving ships operating with their location transponders turned off, have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, it said in a note on Tuesday.

And OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

According to a Bloomberg report, two of the country’s LNG import terminals have remained largely idle since March, when the conflict in the Middle East virtually halted shipments from Qatar, Pakistan’s largest LNG supplier.

Existing regulations don’t easily allow buyers apart from state-owned Pakistan LNG Ltd to procure cargoes from the spot market.

The Energy Ministry’s petroleum division has submitted a proposal to greatly increase the scope to auction unused capacity at the terminals and allow private companies to import LNG directly, according to the person, who asked not to be named as the information isn’t public.

A director general for the petroleum division didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Pakistan GasPort Ltd, which operates one of the terminals, has long called for non-state-owned firms like itself to be allowed to import LNG.

The South Asian country has been struggling with rolling blackouts and a fuel shortfall as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz for gas vessels drastically cut back its LNG deliveries.

While Pakistan has been purchasing some shipments from the spot market to replace lost Qatari flows, prices are more than double pre-war levels, weighing on government finances.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

The Brent November futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, settled up 91 cents, or 0.9 percent, at USD103.50 a barrel. The more active December contract was up USD1.87, or 1.9 percent, at USD98.03. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled at USD90.42, up USD1.04, or 1.2 percent.

Brent recorded a monthly gain of around 14 percent, its biggest since July, while WTI increased by about 5 percent on the month.

Qatar said on Tuesday it hopes that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington can lead to a breakthrough.

However, US President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN that cited US officials as saying he was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for “concrete” steps by Tehran on its nuclear programme.

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline.

Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, it said in a note on Tuesday.

Over the past five days, the 10-day average for total oil exports has held at 20.5 million bpd, or 89 percent of 2025 levels, JPMorgan estimated.

OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

“Recovering crude flows should temper supply-driven price pressures, although persistent product shortages and elevated freight costs are likely to keep the broader energy market tight,” analysts at Japanese bank MUFG said.

The White House has urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories in an effort to lower global prices, according to two people familiar with the effort.

Shrinking US fuel inventories supported oil prices, even as crude stocks grew.

“Lower refining activity ushered in draws for both distillates and gasoline,” said Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler. “Refining activity should gradually climb going forward, helping to protect product inventories from dropping to further lowly levels.”

US gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles — including diesel and heating oil — dropped by 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

“There’s a call for distillates around the world and you have no choice but to pay the price,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York.

US crude inventories, meanwhile, rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 264,000-barrel draw.

The spread between the two crude oil benchmarks also stretched to its widest in four months as traders monitored potential plans by the US to restrict diesel exports, which could create an oversupply in the US market and lead refiners there to process less crude.

Trump is considering allowing sales of red-dyed diesel, instead of an export ban, to offer some price relief to consumers ahead of the November midterm elections.

US economic data also supported oil prices, with Commerce Department data showing inflation increased less than expected in August, likely reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again in October.

Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) states that the change in price is necessitated by global events including changes in Platts rates, premiums, incidentals etc.

During last seven days, the average petrol price has been reduced to USD 127.74 per barrel (compared to USD 127.74 per bbl on September 30), while HSD decreased to USD 110.68 per barrel from USD 111.76 per bbl.

A Petroleum Division notification states that levies and profit margins remain largely steady across both products. The change is recorded in import cost of both petroleum products. The import cost of petrol has been decreased to Rs276.64 per litre from Rs276.78 per litre, whereas, cost of HSD price has gone down to Rs293.36 per litre from Rs296.24 per litre.

The government levies and fixed profit margins for petrol and HSD remain unchanged. Both fuels carry a Petroleum Levy of Rs80 per litre, a Climate Support Levy of Rs5 per litre, and profit margins of Rs9.98 per litre for dealers and Rs7.87 per litre for oil marketing companies. The Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM) has been adjusted at Rs7.91 on petrol and Rs4.19 per litre on HSD.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

Chairman LESCO Board of Directors Amir Zia formally inaugurated both grid stations in the presence of LESCO Chief Executive Officer Engr Muhammad Ramzan Butt and senior officials.

According to LESCO, the 132kV Ittihad Town Grid Station was constructed at a cost of Rs588 million. Four 11kV feeders, including Ittihad Town F-1, F-2, F-3 and Azimabad, are currently being supplied through the grid station, while 11 more feeders will subsequently be shifted to it.

The new facility will help reduce the load on the 132kV Punjab University, LDA Avenue-1 and Chung grid stations, thereby improving the overall stability of the power distribution system in the area.

The 132kV Audit and Accounts Grid Station will provide relief to seven feeders associated with Wapda Town, Township and Valencia grid stations and is expected to benefit around 30,000 consumers.

Three feeders, NFC-I, TIP and Defence Road-II, have already been energised through the new grid station, while work is in progress on feeders serving Hakeem Town, Khera Distributary and Engineers Town.

Speaking on the occasion, Amir Zia said establishment of the new grid stations was an important step towards strengthening LESCO’s transmission system and ensuring a stable power supply to consumers. He said development projects were being executed expeditiously to enhance system capacity and ensure reliable electricity supply.

LESCO CEO Engr Muhammad Ramzan Butt said commissioning of the two grid stations would increase transmission capacity and improve voltage profile and system stability. The new facilities would also play an important role in meeting growing electricity demand and requirements for new connections, he added.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

The regulatory has issued a notification, raising the price of LPG per kilogram and the standard domestic and commercial cylinder. Under the revised rates, the price of LPG has been increased by Rs20.68 per kilogram.

The price of an 11.8kg domestic LPG cylinder has also increased by Rs244.14, bringing the new price to Rs3,296.23.

The latest increase means households relying on LPG for cooking and other domestic needs will have to pay more from October, adding to their monthly fuel expenses.

LPG price hike comes ahead of the winter season, when demand for household heating and cooking fuel typically rises. With petrol prices already soaring, the latest increase could add further pressure on household budgets and raise transportation and distribution costs, potentially making everyday essentials more expensive.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.9 cents, or 0.3percent, to USD3.002 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

For the month, prices were up about 2percent in September after rising 7percent in August.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states eased to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from a monthly record high of 112.3 bcfd in August.

Over the past week, however, output has averaged a much lower 109.4 bcfd, due in part to the force majeure that Canadian energy firm TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission unit declared on the Mountaineer XPress pipe on September 24.

Columbia Gas Transmission lifted the force majeure on September 27 after fixing a mechanical issue that affected around 1.4 bcfd to 1.8 bcfd of gas flows.

Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7percent above normal in April.

But hotter-than-normal weather over the summer forced energy firms to pull lots of gas from storage to fuel power plants needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40percent of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

With the weather still hotter than normal last week, analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 2.4percent above normal during the week ended September 25, down from 2.9percent above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of Thursday’s weekly federal inventory report.

Looking forward, however, meteorologists predicted average weather across the country will remain mostly near normal through October 15, which should keep both heating and cooling demand low.

LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 102.3 bcfd this week to 105.3 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally cooler. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Tuesday.

Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 17.9 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but have remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

The increase in average LNG feedgas in September occurred despite the shutdown of US energy firm Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland around September 19 for a few weeks of annual maintenance.

Around the world, gas traded near USD24 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and USD25 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

According to the report, two of Pakistan’s LNG import terminals have been mostly idle since March, as flows from Qatar have halted due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

It said existing regulations make it difficult for buyers, other than state-owned Pakistan LNG Limited, to procure cargoes from the spot market.

Pakistan secures another Qatari LNG cargo

According to Bloomberg, the Petroleum Division of the Ministry of Energy has submitted a proposal to greatly increase the scope to auction unused capacity at the terminals and allow private companies to import LNG directly.

Pakistan is currently facing significant challenges in securing LNG deliveries due to geopolitical disruptions and high spot market prices.

Pakistan heavily depends on its long-term supply deals with Qatar for stable and more affordable LNG.

However, renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz led to the cancellation of a Qatari LNG shipment scheduled for July 2026 and prompted Qatar to declare force majeure, disrupting LNG imports. This situation forced Pakistan to seek emergency supplies and look for alternative fuels or expensive spot cargoes.

Earlier this month, Pakistan’s Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik warned that the price of fuel could rise to Rs1,000 per litre if a shortage develops, while saying there was currently no fuel shortage in the country.

The Brent November futures contract, which expires on Wednesday, was up $1.12, or 1%, at $103.71 a barrel at 10:50 a.m. EDT. The more active December contract was up $2.65, or 2.8%, at $98.81. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.98, or 2.2%, at $91.98.

Brent is headed for a monthly gain of around 14%, its biggest since July, while WTI is on track for about a 5.5% rise.

Qatar said on Tuesday it hopes that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington can lead to a breakthrough.

However, US President Donald Trump denied reports by Axios and CNN that cited US officials as saying he was willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen Iranian funds in return for “concrete” steps by Tehran on its nuclear programme.

Iran Guards say seized US underwater drone in Hormuz

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on its East-West Pipeline.

Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the last week, in line with their 2025 average, as exports doubled in September, it said in a note on Tuesday.

Over the past five days, the 10-day average for total oil exports has held at 20.5 million bpd, or 89% of 2025 levels, JPMorgan estimated.

OPEC+ oil-producing countries are likely to keep their oil production targets steady for November when they meet on Sunday, two people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

“Recovering crude flows should temper supply-driven price pressures, although persistent product shortages and elevated freight costs are likely to keep the broader energy market tight,” analysts at Japanese bank MUFG said.

Mideast oil exports rebound in September as Saudi Arabia boosts shipments

The White House has urged the European Union to draw down emergency diesel inventories in an effort to lower global prices, according to two people familiar with the effort.

Shrinking US fuel inventories supported oil prices, even as crude stocks grew.

“Lower refining activity ushered in draws for both distillates and gasoline,” said Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler. “Refining activity should gradually climb going forward, helping to protect product inventories from dropping to further lowly levels.”

US gasoline inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels to 204.4 million barrels last week, while distillate stockpiles - including diesel and heating oil - dropped by 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million barrels, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday.

US crude inventories, meanwhile, rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels in the week ended September 25, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 264,000-barrel draw.

The spread between the two crude oil benchmarks also stretched to its widest in four months as traders monitored potential plans by the US to restrict diesel exports, which could create an oversupply in the US market and lead refiners there to process less crude.

Trump is considering allowing sales of red-dyed diesel, instead of an export ban, to offer some price relief to consumers ahead of the November midterm elections.

Brent crude futures closed down USD2.69, or 2.6 percent, at USD102.59 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude settled down USD3.22 or 3.5 percent at USD89.38.

Brent was headed for a monthly gain of around 13 percent and WTI about 4 percent.

READ MORE: Oil falls as investors focus on Middle East supply

Crude futures were “under pressure this morning on news that the Saudi’s East/West pipeline flows have moved up. … US/Iran negotiations are also continuing and while seemingly far apart, both are looking for an off-ramp, and as more oil flows through the Middle East, the less bargaining power Iran will have,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial.

Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline, according to trade sources and shipping data, improving the outlook for oil exports from the Middle East.

Crude oil exports from Middle East producers have rebounded in September to 16.328 million barrels per day, the highest since the US-Israeli war on Iran started in late February, data from Kpler showed on Monday.

US President Donald Trump said he has offered Iran nothing to end the war, rejecting media reports that cited US officials saying he was willing to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for “concrete” steps regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

Diesel futures in Europe edged lower on Tuesday, while those in the US traded 2.6 percent higher.

The White House has urged the European Union to draw down diesel emergency inventories in a bid to lower global prices, sources said. Several European Union member countries have not released as much oil and refined products from reserves as they promised, Trump’s administration said.

Trump is considering regulatory relief that would allow broader sales of red-dyed diesel as part of an effort to bring down soaring prices, according to two people familiar with the discussions. They noted that such a move could allow some buyers to avoid the federal fuel tax. The proposal emerged as a leading alternative to a diesel export ban.

US crude oil and gasoline inventories were expected to have fallen last week, while distillate stockpiles were likely unchanged, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The Petroleum Division has announced lower ex-depot prices for petrol and HSD, based on the working of the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) using a seven-working-day rolling average of the daily Platts Arab Gulf Means Price.

During this period, the average petrol price has been reduced to USD 127.92 per barrel (compared to USD 128.76 per bbl on September 29), while HSD decreased to USD 111.76 per barrel from USD 113.31 per bbl.

The levies and profit margins remain largely steady across both products. The change is recorded in import cost of both petroleum products. The import cost of petrol has been decreased to Rs276.78 per litre from Rs278.27 per litre, whereas, cost of HSD price has gone down to Rs317.24 per litre from Rs319.97 per litre.

According to a Petroleum Division notification, government levies and fixed profit margins for petrol and HSD remain unchanged. Both fuels carry a Petroleum Levy of Rs80 per litre, a Climate Support Levy of Rs5 per litre, and profit margins of Rs9.98 per litre for dealers and Rs7.87 per litre for oil marketing companies. The Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM) has been adjusted at Rs7.91 on petrol and Rs4.19 per litre on HSD.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

On its first day as the front month, gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.3 cents, or 2.0percent, from where the November contract closed on Monday to USD3.043 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Tuesday.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has eased to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, down from a monthly record high of 112.3 bcfd in August.

Over the past week, however, output has averaged a much lower 109.4 bcfd, due in part to the force majeure Canadian energy firm TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission unit declared on the Mountaineer XPress pipe on September 24.

Columbia Gas Transmission lifted the force majeure on September 27 after fixing a mechanical issue that affected around 1.4 bcfd to 1.8 bcfd of gas flows.

Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7percent above normal in April.

But hotter-than-normal weather over the summer forced energy firms to pull lots of gas from storage to fuel power plants needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40percent of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

With the weather still hotter than normal, analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 2.4percent above normal during the week ended September 25, down from 2.9percent above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of Thursday’s weekly federal inventory report.

Looking forward, however, meteorologists predicted average weather across the country will remain mostly near normal through October 14.

LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 102.6 bcfd this week to 105.1 bcfd next week as the weather turns seasonally cooler. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG’s outlook on Monday.

Addressing the participants, SECP Additional Joint Registrar Khurram Shehzad highlighted the basic principles of corporatisation, its benefits and the process of transforming organisations into sustainable corporate structures. He explained that corporatisation plays an important role in improving governance, defining responsibilities and aligning business activities with the applicable legal and regulatory framework.

He also spoke in detail about modern licencing systems, relevant legal and regulatory requirements, and the importance of digitalisation in making the licencing process more convenient and efficient. He noted that the use of modern technology could help improve accessibility, transparency and efficiency in licensing procedures.

Speaking on regulatory reforms, Khurram Shehzad emphasised the importance of reform initiatives aimed at promoting a transparent business environment, reducing unnecessary regulatory barriers and improving institutional efficiency. During the session, participants were also briefed on various practical aspects of the topics discussed. A question-and-answer session and interactive discussion provided participants with an opportunity to seek clarification and gain a better understanding of relevant regulatory matters.

FESCO Company Secretary Muzaffar Abbas, Deputy Company Secretary and Deputy Director Training Sajjad Haider Awan were also present on the occasion.

Addressing the gathering, FESCO Company Secretary Muzaffar Abbas said that such awareness sessions play an important role in enhancing departmental capacity, improving consumer knowledge and promoting awareness of relevant laws and regulations.

At the conclusion of the session, FESCO Company Secretary Muzaffar Abbas thanked SECP Additional Joint Registrar Khurram Shehzad for his participation and valuable guidance. He expressed the commitment the FESCO would continue organising such informative and training programmes in the future to enhance the awareness and capacity of consumers and relevant stakeholders and to contribute towards institutional improvement.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

Brent crude futures were down $1.96, or 1.86%, to $103.32 a barrel at 1306 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $90.65, down $1.95, or 2.11%.

Brent and WTI are headed for monthly gains of around 14% and 5.6%, respectively.

“A clearer picture is emerging of higher oil export volumes leaving the Gulf, but much of that increase still relies on workarounds such as ship-to-ship transfers,” said KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer.

“Those methods are less efficient and more costly than normal operations, which is why crude prices remain elevated.”

Saudi Arabia has resumed oil loadings from its Red Sea port of Yanbu after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline, according to trade sources and shipping data, improving the outlook for Middle East oil exports.

Qatar-linked LNG traffic thru Hormuz picks up

Crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers climbed to 12.8 million barrels a day in September, the highest since February, preliminary figures from data provider Kpler showed on Monday, helped by increased shipments from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Diesel futures in Europe edged lower on Tuesday to trade around $1,379 per metric ton, having reached as high as $1,535 per ton last week as US President Donald Trump said he supported a ban on diesel exports. European diesel futures have more than doubled so far this year.

US and Iranian officials spoke separately with mediators in a renewed effort to end seven months of war, officials of both countries said.

But Trump said he has offered Iran nothing to end the war, rejecting media reports that cited US officials saying he was willing to ease sanctions and release frozen funds for “concrete” steps regarding Iran’s nuclear programme.

Trump rejects Iranian proposal to open Hormuz and end fighting

Meanwhile, the US is considering regulatory relief to allow broader sales of red-dyed diesel to help lower prices, people familiar with discussions told Reuters. The proposal emerged as a leading alternative to a diesel export ban.

“The flashes (of a possible rapprochement between the US and Iran) across media are wishful thinking rather than concrete deals,” said PVM analyst John Evans.

“If it were not so, why is the US president still pondering a diesel/export ban and twiddling with the tax regime on agricultural ‘red’ diesel if he thought petroleum products would be soon flowing forth from the choke points of disruption he has caused via Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb?”

US crude oil and gasoline inventories were expected to have fallen last week, while distillate stockpiles were likely unchanged, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Prices jumped over USD4 a barrel in early trade after US President Donald Trump rejected a proposal from Iran that would have reopened the strait. Oil then pared gains on expectations Qatari mediators would hold talks with both sides.

Brent futures settled up 96 cents, or 0.9 percent, at settle at USD105.28 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 19 cents, or 0.2 percent, to settle at USD92.60.

Qatari mediators are expected to hold separate talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York and with the US side on Monday or Tuesday, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters.

The talks are expected to focus on an amended version of a seven-day proposal that Iran presented last week on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Over the weekend, Iran insisted that only diplomacy can solve its conflict with the US and Israel, after Trump rejected the Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities.

Keeping the door to diplomacy open, however, Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Sunday that he expected US negotiators to engage in more talks this week.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan arrived in Washington on Monday for talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the Saudi state news agency said, amid escalating hostilities between Riyadh and Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis.

The Petroleum Division has announced lower ex-depot prices for petrol and HSD, based on the working of the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) using a seven-working-day rolling average of the daily Platts Arab Gulf Means Price. During this period, the average petrol price has been reduced to USD 128.76 per barrel (compared to USD 129.54 per bbl on September 26), while HSD decreased to USD 113.31.44 per barrel from USD 115.34 per bbl.

A Petroleum Division notification states that levies and profit margins remain largely steady across both products. The change is recorded in import cost of both petroleum products. The import cost of petrol has been decreased to Rs 278.27 per litre from Rs 280.54 per litre, whereas, cost of HSD price has gone down to Rs 319.97 per litre from Rs 323.53 per litre.

According to a Petroleum Division notification, government levies and fixed profit margins for petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) remain unchanged. Both fuels carry a Petroleum Levy of Rs 80 per litre, a Climate Support Levy of Rs 5 per litre, and profit margins of Rs 9.98 per litre for dealers and Rs 7.87 per litre for oil marketing companies.

Meanwhile, customs duties stay fixed at Rs 24.78 per litre for petrol and Rs 15.68 per litre for HSD, while the Inland Freight Equalization Margin (IFEM) has been adjusted at Rs 7.91 on petrol and Rs 4.06 per litre on HSD.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026

On its last day as the front month, gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.1 cents, or 3.2percent, to USD3.095 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Futures for November, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 3percent to USD3.13 per mmBtu.

In the spot market, next-day spot prices fell below USD1 per mmBtu in New York (lowest since 2020), New England (lowest since 2022) and the Mid-Atlantic (lowest since 2023) as demand for the fuel fell with a powerful nor’easter storm hitting the region over the weekend.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 112.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, tying the monthly record high of 112.3 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop to a near-seven-month low of 107.5 bcfd on Monday, due in part to work on the Mountaineer XPress pipe in West Virginia.

Canadian energy firm TC Energy’s Columbia Gas Transmission unit lifted the force majeure on its Mountaineer XPress pipe on Sunday, a sign that more gas will flow out of the Marcellus/Utica shale region in coming days.

Columbia Gas Transmission declared the force majeure on Thursday, affecting around 1.4 to 1.8 bcfd of gas flows, due to a mechanical issue.

India has been the top buyer of seaborne Russian Urals crude since 2022, when Moscow diverted its energy flows away from Europe at deep discounts. However, in recent months, the world’s top crude importer China has ramped up purchases as supplies from the Middle East tightened due to the Iran war.

Some Indian refiners would not be getting adequate Russian supplies in October and November, people familiar with procurement plans said.

“Demand from China has been really high. They were willing to book cargoes in advance and to pay firmer prices compared to Indian refiners,” a source involved in the sale of Russian crude said.

Russian oil arrivals to India are set to fall to around 1.75 million barrels per day in September, the lowest since April, according to analytics firm Kpler.

They had already declined 16.5% to about 2.1 million bpd in August from July, trade data showed, although Russia remained India’s main supplier, ahead of the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

Overall Russian export availability has contracted, notably from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, where shipments have fallen by roughly half as drone attacks repeatedly suspended loadings.

Oil India explores ways to get back Russian dividend

India seeks alternatives from Mideast, West Africa

Indian refiners have turned to pricier replacement barrels, traders said, seeking UAE Murban, a close substitute for Russia’s Urals grade, while also purchasing Iraqi Basrah and Angolan cargoes.

Shipping dynamics have helped redirect flows, with seasonal navigation along the Arctic Northern Sea Route (NSR) providing a secure and cost-effective channel for Russian crude exports to China. In contrast, shipments to India via the Red Sea face heightened security risks linked to the conflict involving Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.

“It’s not so much about the price as ensuring the cargo actually reaches its destination,” a second trader said, adding that freight costs via the Arctic route to China are now broadly comparable with shipments through the Suez Canal.

The rebound came following ​a recovery in exports via the Strait of Hormuz, which ⁠were set to hit about 7.4 million bpd this month, as Saudi Arabia ​diverted oil exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu following attacks that ​damaged its East-West pipeline, the preliminary data showed.

Oil heads higher as US-Iran peace talks in stalemate

While exports from the region - which includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Iran - have rebounded, they were ​still about 6 million bpd down from 18.8 million bpd in February, according ​to Kpler.

The region’s top exporter Saudi Arabia was on track to ship about 5.4 million ‌bpd ⁠this month, rebounding from 2.446 million bpd in August, the data showed.

September shipments from the Ras Tanura port in the Gulf jumped to about 3.6 million bpd, from 929,000 bpd in August, but still lower than the 6.411 ​million bpd recorded in ​February, according to ⁠the data.

A total of 19 very large crude carriers, carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi oil each, exited the ​Strait of Hormuz last week, Kpler data showed.

Saudi coalition says it intercepts Houthi missiles, drones

The figures exclude ​any vessels ⁠that might have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders turned off to avoid detection.

Before the Iran war started on February 28, the strait ⁠typically handled ​about 125 large commercial vessels per day, ​including tankers, gas carriers, bulkers and container vessels, accounting for some 20% of the world’s daily crude ​oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

Brent futures were up $1.68, or 1.6%, at $106 barrel by 1320 GMT, after hitting their highest since September 15 earlier in the session. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $94.10 a barrel, up $1.69, or 1.8%.

Iran announced a peace proposal last week at the UN General Assembly in New York, saying it had been transmitted to the Americans via Qatari mediators.

Trump said on Saturday he rejected the plan, but told Axios in a phone interview on Sunday that he expected US negotiators to engage in more talks this week.

Mediators are expected to hold separate talks with the US and Iran on Monday or Tuesday, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters.

“Renewed friction between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis also sustained concerns over energy infrastructure and flows,” VT Markets Dubai analyst Mahmoud Mashal said.

Yemen’s Saudi-led coalition said early on Saturday it had intercepted two ballistic missiles and two drones launched by the Houthis towards the kingdom.

Crude oil exports from key Middle East producers rebounded in September to 12.8 million barrels per day, the highest since the war started in February, preliminary data from Kpler showed on Monday, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates boosted exports.

The rebound came after a recovery in shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, which were set to hit about 7.4 million bpd this month, the data showed, as Saudi Arabia diverted exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu to its eastern Ras Tanura port following attacks that damaged its East-West pipeline.

“Despite more vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, flows remain below pre-conflict levels, keeping the market undersupplied,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said.

Brent edged up 0.4% last week, but WTI lost more than 7% on concerns that the US may ban diesel exports to ease record prices, which could curb US refining output.

European low-sulphur gasoil’s premium to Brent crude futures hit a record of about $95 a barrel last week after Trump said he backed the idea of a diesel export ban to lower prices that have hit record highs owing to a global supply shortage.

Goldman Sachs said that while Europe and especially Latin America are the key destinations for US diesel exports, a diesel tightening shock would likely quickly spread to the rest of the world including Asia as Latin America and Europe start pulling harder on remaining diesel barrels from countries such as India.

“We estimate that each week of a US diesel export ban would raise European wholesale diesel (ARA gasoil) prices by $3/bbl, or just under 2%,” the bank added.

Elsewhere, Ukraine’s military has struck Russian oil facilities in the Krasnodar region, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Monday.

On their second-to-last day as the front month, gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.7 cents, or 3.5percent, to USD3.180 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract soared by 9percent and closed at its highest since June 25.

For the week, the front-month was up about 9percent after gaining about 3percent last week. Futures for November, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 3percent to USD3.26 per mmBtu.

The premium of futures for November over October fell to a record low of around 7 cents per mmBtu on Thursday, a sign the market is not too worried about supplies meeting demand this winter.

Traders use the October-November spread to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand.

October is the last month of the April-October summer cooling season when demand for gas is generally low and utilities inject gas into storage. November is the first month of the November-March winter heating season when demand for fuel rises and utilities pull gas from storage.

It would be unusual for a summer season month like October to trade over a winter month like November.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 112.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, up from a monthly record high of 112.3 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop to near eight-month low of 106.9 bcfd on Friday, due mostly to declines in West Virginia and Texas.

Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7percent above normal in April.

But hotter-than-normal weather over the summer forced energy firms to pull lots of gas from storage to produce power needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40percent of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

With still warm weather this week, analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 2.4percent above normal during the week ended September 25, down from 2.9percent above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of next Thursday’s weekly federal inventory report.

Looking forward, meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal through October 10.

LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 108.0 bcfd this week to 102.8 bcfd next week before rising to 105.5 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 17.9 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but have remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

The increase in average LNG feedgas so far in September has occurred despite the shutdown of US energy firm Berkshire Hathaway Energy’s 0.8-bcfd Cove Point LNG export plant in Maryland around September 19 for a few weeks of planned annual maintenance.

Around the world, gas traded near USD24 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and USD26 at the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.

Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the US-Israeli war with Iran this year.

Prices in the US, however, have not reacted much to the war in Iran because the US produces all the gas it consumes domestically and US LNG companies are already liquefying as much fuel as they can.

No matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot export much more LNG until units under construction enter service in coming months and years.

The traffic comprised 19 tankers, of which 17 are very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that can carry 2 million barrels of oil, the data showed. Most of the tankers are laden with crude from Saudi Arabia, followed by Iraq.

For the full previous week, 49.2 million barrels of crude were shipped out via Hormuz, according to Kpler. On Wednesday, some 60 commercial vesselsof all types transited the Strait of Hormuz carrying the highest daily volume of crude oil since early July, a US official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

State-run Saudi Aramco has boosted its exports via Hormuz after attacks on its East-West Pipeline earlier this month halted shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

On Thursday, the number of commodity vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to nine from 14 the day before, Kpler data showed, although an unknown number of ships sail through the waterway with their transponders turned off and are not counted.

Of the nine, eight ships exited. The 10-day average of transits is 18, according to Kpler data.

Before the Iran war started on February 28, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day, including tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container vessels, accounting for some 20percent of global oil and liquefied natural gas supply.

Brent futures fell USD2.28, or 2.1 percent, to settle at USD104.32 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell USD2.20, or 2.3 percent, to settle at USD92.41.

That put Brent up less than 1 percent for the week and WTI down about 8 percent.

US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.

Iran, however, said it will show no flexibility over its nuclear program even if the US accepts its proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which calls for steps including lifting a US naval blockade on Iranian ports, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Friday.

“The complex is again coming under pressure … as the market continues to assess the possibility of a (US) diesel export ban while talk of diplomatic progress toward opening the Strait of Hormuz is adding to today’s selling,” analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

Washington’s talk of a possible ban on diesel exports is widening the gap between US crude oil futures and the global Brent benchmark, a signal that markets expect US refiners to process less crude oil if their diesel output gets stuck at home.

The premium of Brent crude over WTI rose to its highest since May for a third day in a row, while US gasoline futures fell around 4 percent on Friday.

Help for Saudi Arabia

Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs are to discuss help for Saudi Arabia as it faces attacks by Yemen’s Houthis.

The Houthis have launched strikes on the Saudi-backed government in Yemen and repeatedly fired into Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil flows from the world’s largest energy exporter, part of a wider Middle East war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz reached 33.7 million barrels in the week starting September 20, preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler showed on Friday, putting exports roughly on track with the previous week’s levels.

Before the start of the Iran war, about 20 percent of the world’s oil supplies moved through the strait.

Separately, US President Donald Trump made clear during talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Chinese help for Iran is unacceptable, US Ambassador to China David Perdue said on Friday.

Any agreements to reduce trade tensions between the US and China could boost economic growth and demand for energy.

The US has proposed that the United Arab Emirates host a trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia to discuss efforts to end their 4-1/2-year-long war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said all proposals for a settlement in the 4-1/2-year-old war with Ukraine remained on the table, but Moscow still needed to assess what was in its best interest, Russian news agencies reported.

A drone attack damaged the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia, forcing it to suspend operations temporarily, Governor Yuri Slyusar said.

Heavy drone strikes on Russian refineries followed discussions at UN headquarters in New York on a potential energy-related ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.

Any deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war could allow Russia to export more energy. Russia, an OPEC+ member, was the world’s third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to US energy data.

Brent futures rose USD3.52, or 3.4 percent, to settle at USD106.60 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose USD2.45, or 2.7 percent, to settle at USD94.61. At their session highs, both contracts were up about 5 percent.

Brent notched its highest close since September 15. It was the first rise in days for WTI, which was down 13 percent over the prior six sessions.

Saudi Arabia intercepted six ballistic missiles fired by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, thwarting attacks on the southern province of Taif and Yanbu area on the Red Sea, the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said.

Iranian airlines were barred from neighboring countries including the UAE and Oman in response to new US sanctions, the first big impact of a shift in US policy to target companies in third countries that do business with Iran.

With the US-Israeli war against Iran largely stalemated for months on the battlefield, Washington has announced an extension of its financial sanctions, targeting companies from third countries that do business with Iranian firms, a practice known as “secondary sanctions”.

On Wednesday, Iran threatened to retaliate against neighboring countries that comply with the US ban on its flights, by making their airports “unusable”.

Separately, Saudi Arabia is building up crude pumping volumes through its East-West Pipeline that runs to its Red Sea export hub of Yanbu, although crude tanker loadings have yet to resume, according to industry sources, satellite imagery and shipping data.

Peace talks ongoing

US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.

The strait has become the central bargaining chip in efforts to end the nearly seven-month US-Iran conflict. Iran seeks relief from the US blockade choking its economy and Washington wants free passage for ships on the global oil supply route now blocked by Tehran.

Neither side wants to surrender its leverage, according to comments to Reuters by two Iranian sources, two regional officials and two Western diplomatic sources.

Diesel prices

With diesel prices hitting record highs in recent weeks due to supply disruptions, high-level contacts continue between the European Union and the US. The US reportedly plans to ban diesel exports, a step the EU believes could hurt both sides.

Global supplies of diesel are tight because Moscow banned exports of the fuel due to disruptions caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and energy infrastructure. Further squeezing supplies are Iranian attacks on ships and energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has contacted executives at several major American refiners in recent days to gauge support for a voluntary restriction on diesel exports as the Trump administration searches for an alternative to a short-term ban, according to three people familiar with the discussions.

Politico reported that the US was preparing a 90-day ban on diesel exports due to a price spike ahead of November midterm elections. Wright has disputed that.

Analysts and market watchers have warned a US diesel export ban would do little to ease high energy prices and could worsen global supplies and further disrupt economies.

Brent futures rose $2.96, or 2.8%, at $103.64 a barrel by 12:12 p.m. EDT (1612 GMT). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.86, or 3.0%, to $91.75.

That put Brent down about 1% for the week and WTI down about 9%.

US and Iranian negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, sources close to the talks said.

In the Middle East, however, Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs are to discuss help for Saudi Arabia as it faces attacks by Yemen’s Houthis.

“Diplomatic hopes are essentially helping oil prices weather the latest military strikes in the Middle East, with crude trading moderately softer despite the attacks,” said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade.

The Houthis have launched strikes on the Saudi-backed government in Yemen and repeatedly fired into Saudi Arabia, disrupting oil flows from the world’s largest energy exporter, as part of a wider Middle East war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28.

Oil flowing

Crude oil flows out of the Strait of Hormuz reached 33.7 million barrels in the week starting September 20, preliminary ship-tracking data from Kpler showed on Friday, putting exports roughly on track with the previous week’s levels.

The traffic comprised 19 tankers, of which 17 are very large crude carriers (VLCCs) that can carry 2 million barrels of oil, the data showed. Most of the tankers are laden with crude from Saudi Arabia, followed by Iraq.

Before the start of the Iran war, about 20% of the world’s oil supplies moved through the strait.

In the US, Washington’s talk of a possible ban on diesel exports is widening the gap between US crude oil futures and the global Brent benchmark, a signal that markets expect US refiners to process less crude oil if their diesel output gets stuck at home.

On Thursday, the premium of Brent crude over WTI rose to its highest since May for a second straight day.

Separately, US President Donald Trump made clear during talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Chinese help for Iran is unacceptable, US Ambassador to China David Perdue said on Friday.

Any agreements to reduce trade tensions between the US and China could boost economic growth and demand for energy.

Russian and Ukraine

The US has proposed that the United Arab Emirates host a trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia to discuss efforts to end their 4-1/2-year-long war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.

A drone attack damaged the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia, forcing it to suspend operations temporarily, Governor Yuri Slyusar said.

Heavy drone strikes on Russian refineries followed discussions at UN headquarters in New York on a potential energy-related ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow.

Any deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war could allow Russia to export more energy. Russia, an OPEC+ member, was the world’s third-biggest crude oil producer behind the US and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to US energy data.

Low stock levels appear to have raised Beijing’s concerns, increasing the prospect of tighter export controls in October, according to Rystad Energy. GL Consulting said it expects exports to fall in October as state refiners prioritise domestic energy security. Commercial gasoline inventories have hit their lowest level since 2011, while diesel inventories have fallen to their lowest since 2015, according to data provided by GL Consulting, a consultancy owned by Mysteel, a leading commodity information provider.

China does not publicly disclose fuel inventory data, while GL Consulting’s records date back to 2011. The world’s biggest crude oil importer has cut refinery throughput by 7percent this year, as supply disruptions forced refiners to cut runs and Beijing imposed fuel export restrictions in mid-March.

However, China began easing the restrictions in mid-July, with exports rebounding to prewar levels in August, and they are expected to maintain their strong momentum in September. The recovery has brought windfall profits for refiners and supported higher refinery runs.

China has yet to issue its October fuel export plan to refiners. Some analysts have also lowered their estimates for China’s fourth-quarter crude imports as Middle East supply disruptions intensify, and expect current refinery run rates to be unsustainable.

Energy Aspects has lowered its forecast for China’s fourth-quarter crude imports to 9.2 million barrels per. Rystad Energy has lowered its fourth-quarter refinery throughput forecast by 880,000 bpd from its previous estimate, to 13.9 million bpd.

“High crude costs are now forcing independent refiners to trim run rates. With state-owned refiners also entering their maintenance season, they cannot fully offset the production shortfall,” said Ye Lin, vice president at Rystad Energy.

“The upshot is a sector with little room to manoeuvre. Tighter export restrictions would also mean forgoing attractive export margins, but China must safeguard domestic supply.”

Front-month gas futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.9 cents, or 0.6percent, to USD3.004 per million British thermal units. On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since July 8.

Prices declined despite a bullish drop in daily output and projections that a federal report on Thursday will show that hot weather and high air conditioning demand last week caused energy firms to add less gas to storage than usual for this time of year.

Analysts forecast energy firms added 53 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended September 18.

That compares with an increase of 77 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 76 bcf for the period.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has risen to 112.8 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, up from a monthly record high of 112.2 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop to an 11-week low of 108.4 bcfd on Thursday, due mostly to declines in Louisiana and West Virginia.

Record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory above the five-year (2021-2025) average since March, reaching a high of 7.7percent above normal in April.

But hotter-than-normal weather over the summer forced energy firms to pull lots of fuel from storage to produce the power needed to keep air conditioners humming, cutting the inventory surplus. About 40percent of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

With the weather remaining hot last week, analysts predicted the amount of gas in storage slid to 2.9percent above normal during the week ended September 18, down from 3.7percent above normal in the previous week, according to estimates ahead of Thursday’s weekly federal inventory report.

Looking forward, however, meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly near normal through October 9.

LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 108.0 bcfd this week to 103.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG’s outlook on Wednesday.

Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants have risen to 17.8 bcfd so far in September, up from 17.2 bcfd in August, but have remained short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.