Islamabad and Rawalpindi may need to brace up for another lockdown. Dharna politics has become an annual political rite. Islamabad has suffered a lockdown event every year this decade, save for 2015. The cast of characters and script changes, but the residents suffer all the same. This time the JUI-F’s Maulana is flexing his muscle by bringing his version of Azadi march to Islamabad on October 31.
The march has set tongues wagging. What does the Maulana really want? What are the odds that he will get what he wants? Why is the government feeling the heat even though it has the right blessings? And why is the government feeling the heat so soon?
Among an opposition that has become increasingly risk-averse, the JUI-F has mysteriously carved out significant political space for itself. Without any political stakes to lose but possessing a loyal horde of males, the brinkman seems to be making people nervous in Islamabad. And now there is an increasing likelihood that the main opposition parties, especially the PML-N, will march in step with the JUI-F.
Commonalities among previous protests in the so-called decade of democracy can provide some clues on what might happen.
First, this kind of political trouble brews soon after an elected government completes its first year in office. The Zardari government had to deal with a march for restoration of apex judiciary in March 2009. The Nawaz government had to live with the Khan-Qadri tsunami march in August 2014 that lasted for months as a dharna on D-Chowk. In that respect, the Khan government is now overdue a sit-in!
Second, trouble also brews when a political government needs to be kept in check. The restored judiciary’s activism helped undermine PPP government until its massive defeat in the 2013 polls. Imran Khan’s mini-siege in 2014 and a major protest in late 2016 severely undercut the PML-N government’s political capital during moments of crucial decision making. Some commentators have suggested that facing protests, the PTI might get sensitized to the idea of good governance, especially in Punjab.
And third, to force stubborn rulers in Islamabad to give in, the religious right offers a potent deployment. Folks would recall the sudden appearance on the scene of one cleric from Canada, who first marched in January 2013 before elections (against corruption) and who later went on to cause disruption for most of the second half in 2014 (seeking Nawaz’s resignation). And then there was the abrupt rise of the TLP, which besieged Islamabad in November 2017 and tried the same a year later.
It is possible that stakeholders’ demands will be met in time and the march will be called off after accommodating the Maulana. It is also possible that the march will reach Islamabad, in which case it may be a protracted affair. Whatever the scenario, a by-product of this march will be its “deflection” value, which may come in handy to take the public’s imagination away from other burning issues. Be that as it may, a sputtering economy cannot afford political shenanigans that disrupt an uneasy political calm.
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