SINGAPORE: CBOT September wheat may fall to $4.63-1/4, following its failure to break a resistance at $4.80 per bushel.
The resistance is provided by the 23.6% retracement on the downtrend from $5.57-1/4 to $4.56-1/4. Wheat’s failure to break this resistance signals the completion of the first bounce from $4.56-1/4.
The bounce will be deeply reversed. It consists of three waves. The second wave labelled b ended around $4.63-1/4, towards which the current fall may extend.
On the daily chart, a retracement analysis on the uptrend from $4.27-1/4 to $5.57-1/4 reveals a similar resistance at $4.76-3/4, the 61.8% level, which helped trigger a drop. Based on this retracement analysis, wheat could even fall deeper, to $4.57-3/4.
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** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. **