Prices fall as some UK gas fields start to ramp up

Madiha Shakeel August 5, 2019

LONDON: British wholesale natural gas prices fell on Monday as some domestic fields started to ramp up after maintenance.

* Within day gas fell by 2.20 pence to 29.50 pence per therm by 0915 GMT

* Day-ahead gas was 1.15 pence lower at 30.50 pence per therm.

* The system was oversupplied by 16 million cubic metres (mcm), with demand forecast at 119.7 mcm and supply at 135.6 mcm per day, National Grid data showed.

* The oversupply is due to some fields supplying UK gas terminals coming to the end of maintenance outages and slowly ramping up, Refintiv analysts said in a morning note.

* “Bacton Seal is up by 7 mcm and Teesside CATS up by 4 mcm,” they added.

* Total gas flows from UK production fields are expected at 92 mcm, around 14 mcm higher than Friday.

* Wind generation is expected to be around 6 gigawatts (GW) on Monday and Tuesday, Elexon data showed, out of a total metered capacity of around 12 GW.

* On demand side, gas-for-power demand is expected at around 36 mcm on Monday, edging down to 34 mcm on Tuesday, Refinitiv Eikon data showed. These are lower forecasts than expected earlier.

* Sources said that bearish drivers are prevailing now after a short squeeze that lifted prices late last week.

* Ongoing maintenance is a “tad supportive,” but fundamentals are bearish and current volumes are also very thin, an analyst source said.

* “Parties who were short have closed short,” a gas trader said. “Now we are back to basics – fundamental drivers,” he said, adding that full storages and likely more oversupply after Norway’s Troll field comes back online.

* UK September contract dropped by 0.82 p to 31.90 p/therm.

* Dutch day-ahead gas fell by 0.55 euro to 10.75 euros per megawatt hour.

* Dutch September contract down 0.33 euro to 11.65 euros/MWh.

* The benchmark EU carbon price fell by 0.44 euro to 28.82 euros a tonne.

Copyright Reuters, 2019

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