Slovenian exports rise in 2018, GDP growth forecast cut

LJUBLJANA: Slovenian exports jumped 9.2 percent in 2018 to 30.9 billion euros ($35 billion) while imports rose 11 percent to 30.6 billion, the statistics office said on Thursday, although the European Commission later cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast.

The Commission said it expected Slovenia's 2019 GDP to rise by 3.1 percent, versus the 3.3 percent it forecast in November, adding in a report that it now expects 2020 GDP growth of 2.8 percent, compared with 3 percent it predicted previously.

"Net exports' contribution to growth is expected to turn negative over the forecast horizon, amid slower growth in export markets and sustained domestic demand growth," it said.

Slovenia's statistics office reported that the trade surplus in 2018 was 241 million euros compared with a surplus of 724 million a year before.

December exports from Slovenia were only 2 percent higher than the same month last year, versus a year-on-year growth of 9.1 percent in November, indicating they will slow due to expected lower economic growth among its main trading partners.

Slovenia exports almost 70 percent of its production, mainly to other European Union states. Main trade partners include Germany, Italy, Croatia, Austria and France.

Its main exports are cars and parts, pharmaceutical products and household appliances.

"We expect export growth to slow down. In the next few months, we see exports rising by an average of 3 to 4 percent in nominal terms," Bojan Ivanc, chief analyst at the Chamber of Commerce and Industry, said.

Slovenia, which narrowly avoided an international bailout for its banks in 2013, returned to growth a year later and the government's macroeconomic institute UMAR expects the economy to expand by 3.7 percent this year versus 4.4 percent in 2018.

UMAR is expected to lower its GDP forecasts for 2019 and 2020 next month.