SINGAPORE: CBOT March wheat may fall further into a range of $5.16-$5.20 per bushel, as suggested by a projection analysis and a rising channel.

A three-wave cycle from $5.03-1/4 has completed around $5.38, the 10 percent projection level of the third wave laveled C.

Most of this cycle developed within a rising channel, which indicates a target zone of $5.16-$5.20. Wave theory suggests a lower target at $5.10, the bottom of the wave B.

Resistance is at $5.26, a break above which may lead to a gain to $5.30. On the daily chart, a retracement analysis on the downtrend from $6.27-1/2 to $5.03-1/4 reveals a support at $5.21, the 14.6 percent level.

This support looks vulnerable after the big black candle formed on Wednesday. Most likely, wheat would overcome this barrier and falls towards $5.12.

* Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.

No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.

Copyright Reuters, 2018