SINGAPORE: US oil may retest a support $50.82 per barrel, a break below which could cause a loss into the range of $49.31-$50.07.
The support is identified as the 338.2 percent projection level of a downtrend from $72.43. It triggered a bounce on Dec. 13, which has been almost reversed. The reversal signals a bearish market sentiment.
The consolidation from Nov. 29 has been shaped into a triangle, which is likely to be confirmed as a bearish continuation pattern, to be followed by another round of fall.
On the daily chart, oil is retesting a support at $50.27, the 76.4 percent retracement of the uptrend form $42.05 to $76.90. A break below this support could open the way towards $42.05, which is suggested by a lower channel.
A further bounce may be limited to $53.26 (first chart).