SINGAPORE: CBOT March wheat may break a support at $5.30 per bushel and fall to the next support at $5.26, as suggested by its wave pattern and a projection analysis.
These supports are identified respectively as the 76.4 percent and the 61.8 percent projection levels of an upward wave C from $5.10. This wave could have completed around a resistance zone of $5.36-1/4 to $5.38. A rising channel suggests the completion as well.
It could be too aggressive to target $5.16, which is around the lower channel line. However, a fall to $5.26 looks highly likely, as suggested by a dotted line.
On the daily chart, the break above a resistance at $5.32-1/2 seems to be unsuccessful, which is provided by the 23.6 percent retracement of the downtrend from $6.27-1/2 to $5.03-1/4, as wheat failed to stand firm above this barrier. The target at $5.50-1/2 has to be temporarily aborted.
* Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.