US, Europe optimism helps global stock index dodge trade war dread

NEW YORK: An index of global stock markets rose on Monday for the first time in eight trading sessions on optimism about policy from Italy to the United States, dodging anxiety about the U.S.-China trade war.

MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe added 0.15 percent, but it felt fragile after a sell-off in China overnight and emerging-market shares hit their lowest level in more than a year.

Traders were bracing for a potential escalation in the Sino-U.S. row after President Donald Trump raised the stakes on Friday, saying he is ready to impose tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports to the United States. He also called on Apple to make its products in the United States.

Emerging market stocks lost 1.19 percent for the day.

U.S. stock investors are looking to extend momentum after corporate profits hit a record high in the second quarter, while investors think an Italian debt crisis would spark a conflict with Europe that would hurt the domestic economy.

Congressional Republicans plan to unveil another round of tax cuts this week ahead of the Nov. 6 U.S. elections.

"Markets continue to be under pressure from a whole host of headwinds," said Tim Love, investment director of emerging market equities at fund manager GAM Holding AG.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13.48 points, or 0.05 percent, to 25,903.06, the S&P 500 gained 7.53 points, or 0.26 percent, to 2,879.21 and the Nasdaq Composite  added 16.91 points, or 0.21 percent, to 7,919.45.

Stocks in Milan jumped 2.30 percent after Economy Minister Giovanni Tria said on Sunday the coalition's more radical budget plans would be introduced gradually, reassuring investors that EU fiscal rules would be respected.

The euro was up 0.45 percent to $1.1603, and the gap between yields on Italian and more creditworthy German bonds fell to the narrowest in a month.

Shares in Stockholm and the Swedish crown strengthened after the nationalist Sweden Democrats gained less ground than polls had predicted in elections on Sunday.

FRAGILE EMERGING MARKETS

The latest 14-month low for emerging-market shares came amid turbulence in Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Russia and South Africa, where currencies have been routed recently.

Some Asian economies are vulnerable, too, Nomura analysts said, with many countries burdened by high private debt. They also noted a "concentration risk" from some of the world's largest funds' heavy investments in emerging-market assets.

The Indian rupee hit a record low and Indonesia's rupiah weakened near an all-time low. The Australian dollar, a proxy for Chinese growth because of the large volume of metals Australia sells to China, hovered near its lowest in 2-1/2 years.

Copper, an industrial metal China uses heavily, lost 0.53 percent, adding to a nearly 20 percent drop already this year.

Beijing had warned of retaliation if Washington launched any new trade measures. But it is running out of room to match them dollar-for-dollar, raising concern it will resort to other measures, such as weakening the yuan or taking action against U.S. companies in China.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan  closed down 1.14 percent at the lowest since July 2017.

The potential for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike after a U.S. labor market report showed wages posting their largest annual increase in more than nine years pushed 2-year Treasury yields to 2.7109 percent, their highest in 10 years.

Risk aversion supported the 30-year bond, which last rose 9/32 in price to yield 3.0883 percent.