SANTIAGO: Chile's unemployment rate for the April-to-June period is expected to have risen as agricultural jobs felt the pinch of winter's start in the Southern Hemisphere, according to a Reuters poll published on Friday.
The unemployment rate is forecast to have edged up to 6.9 percent in the period, compared with the March-May rate of 6.7 percent, according to the median response of 12 analysts and economists polled by Reuters. Chile's jobless rate for the April-June period last year was 7.2 percent.
"We believe employment should maintain a similar rhythm of growth, and some data suggests the same for the workforce, which leaves a limited margin for a seasonal increase in unemployment," said Benjamin Sierra, economist at Scotiabank in Santiago.
Slower job creation in agriculture, fishing and tourism -- sectors which usually boom in the summer -- will likely pressure the jobless rate.
Top copper producer Chile has been prepping its export-dependent economy for fallout from the euro zone's crisis and a slowdown in global demand, especially from top trade partner and premier metals consumer China.
"The external crisis still has not shown significant signs of hitting job creation," said Antonio Moncado, an analyst at brokerage Bci Estudios.
Chile's central bank recently said that the local labor market remains tight, though some moderation was seen in the pace of employment growth.
The central bank is expected to hold its key interest rate steady at 5.0 percent for a seventh straight month in August, but then cut it twice within six months, as Chile braces for fallout from abroad and local inflationary pressures ease, the bank's latest fortnightly poll of traders showed on Wednesday.
Interest rate swaps point to a rate cut of 25 basis points in October, according to Reuters data, though a big share of the market expects that the rate reduction could happen in September.
Chile's national statistics agency, or INE, will publish the jobless data on Tuesday at 9 a.m. local time (1300 GMT).
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