NEW ORLEANS: The Colombian Coffee Federation on Saturday raised its 2014 production estimate slightly in the face of a possibly moderate El Nino weather pattern later this year, which it expects could help the crop.
"We foresee some El Nino, but a moderate El Nino that is healthy for the crop because it's dry, it gives the tree hydric stress but doesn't remain too much," said Juan Orduz, speaking to reporters at the National Coffee Association of USA conference in New Orleans.
Colombia is the world's biggest producer of washed arabica coffee and the federation expects the country will produce 11.4 million 60-kg bags of coffee in 2014, up from 10.9 million in 2013.
The latest forecast is slightly higher than the 11.3 million bags estimated in early February.
Stress from dry conditions can produce larger cherries and bean size when followed by rain, Orduz said. "It's even more desirable for a slight El Nino," he said.
El Nino is a weather phenomenon that results from the warming of ocean surface temperatures and creates dry conditions in Colombia, whereas the La Nina weather pattern causes heavy rain.
Colombia's rising output follows huge losses between 2008 and 2012, when the combination of a leaf rust crop disease outbreak, heavy rains and a renovation program that took thousands of trees out of service brought production down sharply below average.
Colombian exporters were aggressive sellers in late 2013 and early 2014 as they received government subsidies due to low prices and their competitors in Central America faced reduced production due to their worst-ever leaf rust outbreak.
This sharply boosted Colombian coffee exports to Canada and the United States. "We were concerned about how the market would react when we would come back," Orduz said, referring to the five years of below-average production that caused many roasters to look elsewhere for supplies.
"The North American industry has reacted very quickly because of availability, the situation in Central America and we had good pricing for them," Orduz said.
To the United States alone, Colombia's export growth was 45 percent in 2013, over 2012, and 50 percent of Colombian coffee exports currently head to either the United States or Canada, he said.
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